Wolfsburg – Freiburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 15 on Saturday, 20.12.2025 at 15:30 CET
With a magnifying glass, I searched for the highest Bundesliga odds and focused in particular on those offers that could affect my personal Wolfsburg Freiburg tip.
In this one, I speculate that the team from the Black Forest will score at least one brace against VfL. After all, the odds of about 2.10 are good, and the data situation is even better!
The Wolves seem to be the ideal opponent for this type of bet. Did you know that the home side have only kept one clean sheet so far and have conceded a whopping 2.14 goals per Bundesliga appearance in their home stadium?
In fact, in 3 of their last 5 games in the Volkswagen Arena alone, they have conceded the minimum number of goals I am aiming for on Saturday.
The sports club could also get a brace because it traditionally presents itself well against this opponent.
Freiburg have won three of their last four Bundesliga away games at VfL, with only the 6-0 defeat in January 2023 being a clear exception and Freiburg’s second-highest away defeat in the top flight to date.
Nevertheless, the Breisgau team has celebrated as many away wins in the Bundesliga against no other club as against the Wolves – a total of eight.
Wolfsburg – Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips
Have you ever taken a look at the long list of absences on the part of the Lower Saxony team? In fact, it might be worth considering more than just a simple away win bet here.
“1st Goal & Win: Freiburg” at odds of around 3.05 is an easily lucrative alternative with a good chance of success, even if the sports club has surprisingly only won 3 of its 7 games since the beginning of the season, in which it scored the 1-0.
The condition “Both to score” has been fulfilled in each of the last six VfL games, so I will also pay attention to the envisaged combination bet “Win Freiburg & BTS” at much higher odds of around 4.70.
What you need to know about Wolfsburg vs. Freiburg betting
- Wolfsburg have struggled at home recently, winning just one of their last 15 Bundesliga home games (D7 L7). However, this victory (3-1 against Union Berlin) was the last home game.
- Freiburg have won just two of their last ten Bundesliga games (5 draws, 3 defeats) and, with 17 points from 14 games, have equalled their weakest start to the season in seven years and the value of 2018/19.
- In the last five duels between Wolfsburg and Freiburg, a total of twelve goals have been scored, an average of 2.4 per game. However, both teams have scored in only two of the last six direct encounters.
- Mohammed Amoura (Wolfsburg) has scored in the last two Bundesliga games and has six goals in eleven appearances. No other player in this game scored more goals or collected more expected goals (5.46 xG) than the Wolfsburg striker.
Wolfsburg – Freiburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg have conceded three of their last five goals in the Bundesliga from set-pieces – a discipline that the Breisgau team in particular has mastered very well.
So it’s no wonder that “Vincenzo Grifo scores” at odds around 3.05 at Interwetten is the first suggestion that our Wolfsburg Freiburg AI forecast has generated and that at the same time knocks on open doors for me.
The Italian is in good form and should once again pose a lot of goal threat when the ball is at rest.
“Over 2.5 goals” at odds around 1.78 is also recommended by our data model, but I would be careful here.
Yes, three goals were also to be scored because four of the last six away games of the Breisgau team had already cracked this mark.
However, I expect so much with a 2:1, 3:1 or even 4:1 for the sports club that if I were you, I would definitely add the away win as an additional condition.
The best odds for Wolfsburg vs. Freiburg
Let’s take a closer look at the Bundesliga fixtures and especially the Wolfsburg Freiburg odds – a clash in which the betting markets deliberately do not set a clear direction and instead depict a finely balanced balance of power.
A home win for VfL Wolfsburg is scheduled at 2.45. The bookmakers believe that the Lower Saxons can do a lot in front of their home crowd, see them as having a minimal advantage.
Factors such as physicality, directness in the forward game and the ability to put Freiburg under pressure early on are reflected in this evaluation.
The draw is traded at 3.50. This ratio suits two teams that are structured, take risks in doses and often decide on control over speed in games.
For the markets, a balanced game with shared points is an absolutely realistic scenario.
An away win for SC Freiburg is 2.75. The bookmakers expect Freiburg to have a clear chance despite the away game. Game intelligence, tactical discipline and efficiency in front of goal ensure that the Breisgau team is only just behind Wolfsburg.
Wolfsburg vs Freiburg Match Analysis:
Freiburg travel with a four-place lead, but they have to improve away from home if they want to head towards Europe.
Wolfsburg only have an average of 45% possession at home, Freiburg presses more actively and allows the fourth fewest passes per defensive action in the league (12.8).
Nevertheless, no dominant performance by the guests is to be expected, as the self-confidence is lacking away from home. Both teams are below the league average with 3.14 goals per game, which indicates a rather tough start.
Wolfsburg are also still waiting for consistency, with only one home win in the Bundesliga.
The recent 1-1 draw against Dortmund can only be overrated to a limited extent at Freiburg. Most of the 21 goals came after BVB were sent off.
In only two of seven away games did they have more shots on goal than their opponents, which again speaks for caution in offensive play.
Set pieces remain a clear strength: Seven goals after stationary balls, shared best value behind the top, a third of all goals.
Wolfsburg must be as attentive as possible here, because patience rather than a flood of chances is to be expected from both teams from the game.
Wolfsburg Form Check
Wolfsburg have won their last two Bundesliga games and have already won as many games as in the previous twelve games this season combined.
In total, the team is unbeaten in three games, including a 1-1 draw against Frankfurt – their best run since January to March 2025, when Wolfsburg drew five and won two in seven games.
Wolfsburg continue to struggle at home, however: Of the last 15 Bundesliga home games, only one has been won – the last one, a 3-1 win against Union Berlin on matchday 13.
Among the teams that have neither been promoted nor relegated, Wolfsburg collected the fewest home points in 2025 (13).
Defensively, the record is also weak: 15 goals have been conceded, only Gladbach have conceded more with 17. A clean sheet at the Volkswagen Arena has been 13 games away – no other Bundesliga team has been waiting for a home win for that long!
As already mentioned, set-pieces also remain a problem: Three of the last five goals conceded were scored after stationary balls, two of them from corners. Wolfsburg’s pressing is low (7.93 sequences per game), as is the number of high ball wins (4.71 per game).
Freiburg Form Check
Freiburg have won just two of their last ten Bundesliga games and have collected 17 points after 14 matchdays – their worst start to the season in seven years, on a par with 2018/19.
Away from home, the Breisgau team has been winless for five league games and have not scored a goal in three of these games, only seven goals in total – only HSV, Heidenheim, St. Pauli and Union Berlin have worse values.
This season, they have already lost four away games, while in 2024/25 they have lost only six in total. Nevertheless, I believe that this trend will be abandoned on Saturday in the Volkswagen Arena.
Offensively, Freiburg scores strongly from set-pieces: They scored ten goals from stationary balls, six of them from corners – the best yield in the league this season.
40.33% of their set pieces end in a finish, only Union Berlin is more effective (51.74%). They have also won the second most duels (710), behind Union Berlin (715).
According to expected points (xPTS), Freiburg should currently be sixth with 20.4 points, only four points behind fourth place.
The underperformance is partly due to defensive factors: Freiburg conceded 4.18 more goals than would have been expected after xGA, the third-highest deficit in the league after Heidenheim (5.48) and Frankfurt (9.88).
