Wolfsburg – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 17 on Wednesday, 14.01.2026 at 18:30 CET
Of course, it’s difficult to believe that a team that conceded eight goals at the weekend would suddenly put in a flawless defensive performance just a few days later in another Bundesliga duel.
With a view to the current 2025/2026 Bundesliga schedule, I therefore prefer to advocate a Wolfsburg St. Pauli tip in the 17th match of both clubs, which assumes the opposite!
“Both teams to score” at odds around 1.75 does not promise a monster payout, but in my eyes it is one of the most reliable predictions in the new year.
The Wolves will undoubtedly want to set an example, but do not have the necessary self-confidence to actually be able to keep a clean sheet in the game against the Kiezkicker!
In order to recover from the debacle against Bayern, from a historical point of view, the “wrong opponent” for VfL Wolfsburg is visiting!
St. Pauli have not lost any of their previous six Bundesliga duels against the Wolves (1 win, 5 draws) – against no other current first division team have the Kiezkicker played so often without suffering a defeat.
The situation is similar across all competitions: In 16 competitive games against VfL, St. Pauli lost only once, a 4-1 away defeat in June 1994, with five wins and ten draws.
Wolfsburg – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips
Since the defeat against Bayern took place in the Allianz Arena, the following record, on which I will base one or two additional Wolfsburg St. Pauli tips, remained unaffected for the time being.
What is meant is the fact that the Volkswagen Arena is the only venue besides the Munich football temple where an average of more than four Bundesliga goals per game will be recorded in 2025/26.
Over 2.5 goals at odds around 1.90 as well as the somewhat more aggressive variant Over 3.5 goals at correspondingly higher values of 3.20 are therefore two betting suggestions that I would also like to put to the test with or without an additional Merkur Bets odds boost.
What you need to know about Wolfsburg vs. St. Pauli betting
- Wolfsburg conceded eight goals against FC Bayern last Sunday, their heaviest Bundesliga defeat in the club’s history – despite a low Expected Goals Against (xGA) score of just 2.94.
- FC St. Pauli has only scored 13 goals so far and occupies last place in the offensive statistics with an expected goals (xG) value of 12.65 (average 0.84 per game).
- The last victory in a direct duel between these two teams dates back to January 2002, when St. Pauli won 3-1 at home.
- The Wolfsburg defence set a historic negative record: After own goals from Koulierakis and Seelt, Fischer and Jenz also scored into their own net. Never before in Bundesliga history has a team scored four own goals in three consecutive games.
Wolfsburg – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Wolfsburg St. Pauli AI prediction takes a path that I can understand, but which I would not necessarily prefer to my own approach.
Some of these are very subtle proposals that seem unintuitive, but are based on a strong data basis.
For example, the selection of 2nd half: St. Pauli scores at odds of around 2.00, as the Kiezkicker do not score often, but have scored 60% of their goals after the change of ends!
Especially immediately after the break, VfL is also particularly vulnerable. Because in the entire German top flight, no one can top the 13 goals that the Wolves have already conceded in their first 16 games of the season in this section of the game.
By the way, our AI is by no means critical of an early lead by the host – quite the opposite.
1st half: VfL scores to make it 1-0 Odds around 2.25 is also recommended by our prediction model.
Statistically, this is undoubtedly justifiable, as the Wolves have already scored seven Bundesliga goals within the first 15 minutes. After last weekend’s debacle, they certainly want to put pressure on them right from the start!
Last but not least, the model recommends a classic draw bet with values around 3.70. According to the data model, this is the 1X2 scenario with the best risk-reward ratio – and I can’t argue with that in principle…
The best odds for Wolfsburg vs. St. Pauli
Let’s take a look at the Wolfsburg St. Pauli odds – and even the first impression shows: The bookmakers are surprisingly confident about Wolfsburg here, despite the recent, heavy 8-1 defeat against Bayern.
A home win for VfL Wolfsburg is recorded at 1.90. The markets are betting on the supposed quality of the squad, the – well – home strength and the ability to stabilize quickly after a bitter defeat.
It is brave to list Wolfsburg as favourites, but apparently the bookmakers trust that the team has learned from its mistakes within just a few days …
The draw is 3.70. This odds indicate that a tough game is possible – St. Pauli could be compact and lie in wait for counterattacks. So the markets do not expect VfL to experience a sure-fire success, but expect a game that may well falter.
After all, an away win by St. Pauli is traded at values around 3.90. The bookmakers classify the Hamburg team as outsiders, but give them chances through fast transition play and set pieces.
Wolfsburg vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
Wolfsburg is under enormous pressure: A defeat against St. Pauli would catapult the Wolves directly into the relegation battle, while the guests are only three points behind and of course feel the uncertainty of the opponent!
The Wolves are favourites at home, but the home statistics are alarming – since January 2025 there has only been one win in front of a home crowd.
St. Pauli will therefore try to run high from the start to take away the rhythm of the battered VfL and immediately build up pressure in front of the opponent’s goal!
The data speaks for a wild back and forth. Wolfsburg have so far created significantly better chances than St. Pauli with 7.93 xG, but the Wolves’ defence is visibly uncertain: In all six games since Paul Simonis’ sacking, they have conceded at least one goal.
This makes mistakes likely and opens up space for counterattacks by the guests.
We can expect a game with many goalscoring chances, chaotic scenes and quick transition moments. St. Pauli will try to take advantage of every opportunity that presents itself, while Wolfsburg will have to use its home advantage.
High intensity and offensive actions on both sides point to an entertaining, high-scoring duel in which small mistakes could be punished immediately.
Wolfsburg Form Check
Despite an expected number of goals conceded (xGA) of only 2.94, Wolfsburg suffered by far the heaviest defeat in their Bundesliga history against Bayern last Sunday: eight goals conceded in the record champions’ 8-1 thrashing of the record champions.
Bayern dominated the game from the start, and although Wolfsburg started well, equalised and drew 1-1 at one point, it was not enough to keep up with the intensity of the league leaders.
Two own goals – by Kilian Fischer and Moritz Jenz – exacerbated the humiliation and led to a new, undesirable Bundesliga record: four own goals this season.
Wolfsburg’s defence remains a problem child. Konstantinos Koulierakis and Jenson Seelt had already contributed own goals in the games against Gladbach and Freiburg. So the uncertainty is obvious!
With now 36 goals conceded at an average of 2.25 per game, Wolfsburg and Heidenheim share the dubious position of the worst defence in the league. An alarm signal for the upcoming tasks if the team wants to find stability again.
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli go into the important basement duel against Wolfsburg rested, as their home game against Leipzig last Saturday was postponed due to heavy snowfall in northern Germany.
Despite the defeats of Hamburg, Augsburg and Wolfsburg on the last matchday, little has changed in terms of the gaps in the basement of the table.
However, the Kiezkicker now have a small advantage: The direct competitors Heidenheim and Mainz meet on Tuesday, so Alexander Blessin can wait for the result of an important duel before his own game …
However, the team is still in a form crisis and is in the penultimate place in the table with only 12 points, but is unbeaten in three games.
The main problem remains the offensive: St. Pauli have scored only 13 goals so far and have the lowest value in the league with 12.65 expected goals (xG), which corresponds to an average of 0.84 per game.
The lack of penetration will be decisive if St. Pauli wants to make up ground in the fight to stay in the league.
