Bundesliga match day 15, Sunday, 22/12/2024 at 5:30 PM
Can BVB still end the year on a positive note in a disappointing league season so far? Before the start of the 15th matchday, Borussia are only in eighth place, and it is no longer possible to reach the Champions League places before the winter break.
Instead, the aim is to stay in touch. However, the topic of the championship has long since been settled. In contrast, Wolfsburg have been on an upward trend in recent weeks, with VfL only one point behind Dortmund. Last week, after five consecutive wins in competitive matches, they only conceded one defeat again in Freiburg.
In my Wolfsburg Dortmund betting tip, I see the guests as having a slight advantage despite their injury concerns, but they are not yet running smoothly away from home. Therefore, I choose the “double chance X2” with over 1.5 goals at Interwetten.
Wolfsburg have worked their way up well. The turnaround for the better actually came with a win against BVB in the second round of the DFB Cup. After a long fight and a match in which VfL were the better team, they managed the decisive 1-0 in extra time.
This was followed by a 1-1 draw against Augsburg with tired legs, before the winning streak began. 3-1 against Heidenheim, 1-0 against Union Berlin, 5-1 against Leipzig, another cup success against Hoffenheim (3-0) and a 4-3 against Mainz. Freiburg (2-3) was the first team to dampen the mood in winter.
The betting providers’ prediction
I definitely go along with the odds for Sunday’s game. Dortmund are given 2.20, Wolfsburg are at 3.15, and you can get 3.60 for the draw at Interwetten.
However, a single outcome of this match is too hot for me. Especially since the, in my opinion, slightly favored guests are still waiting for their first away win. Dortmund is one of the worst teams away from home with just two points.
However, with six games, BVB is also one of the teams that have played the fewest away games so far, for comparison: Bayern, Bremen and Frankfurt have already played eight matches. Does the weak record on the road deter the AI from a Dortmund bet?
AI prediction Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund: That’s what ChatGPT tips
In short, yes! In fact, none of the three options that ChatGPT has for us includes a Dortmund quote. The artificial intelligence sees little risk in the bet that Wolfsburg will score in the second half.
In doing so, she looked at the last few games in particular. Firstly, Wolfsburg have scored nine goals in their last three matches and actually scored eight of them after Ralph Hasenhüttl’s half-time talk.
And fittingly, Dortmund has conceded all five of its most recent goals in the second half. Yes, statistically the bet makes sense and the odds are also good, but the defense has not done a bad job in recent weeks.
Let’s continue with the medium-risk variant, where the AI has under 2.5 goals in mind. The odds for this are around 2.35, but I don’t see much in this bet, especially not after the offensive fireworks in the Wolfsburg matches recently.
We are talking about 14 goals in four games that Wolfsburg has scored alone and against a BVB with many absences in defense, it would be a big surprise if Hasenhüttl curbed his greatly improved offense.
Therefore, I cannot really imagine a 1-1 result either, which the AI has chosen as the “high risk” variant. But if you have a free bet, you could give it a try. After all, the last three BVB games in the Bundesliga ended 1-1.
Analysis: Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund
Three draws in a row for Borussia, who will go into the winter break as the strongest home team. At home, it looked like they would beat Bayern for a long time before Jamal Musiala managed to equalize with a header shortly before the end.
In Gladbach, Dortmund also gave away a 1-0 lead. The same game then happened last week against Hoffenheim. In a game with few chances, they again failed to hold on to a 1-0 lead.
The AI advises betting on Wolfsburg scoring in the second half, but as an alternative to a higher odds, you could consider that the hosts will score the last goal of the game.
Offensively, what Dortmund offered was often too meager for me, especially with the personnel available. And yes, I’m aware of the personnel dilemma, but it primarily affects the defense.
Shortly after going 1-0 up against Bayern, Dortmund weren’t doing much up front at all, which was reminiscent of the incomprehensible defeat against Real Madrid in the Champions League. And it was pretty poor against Hoffenheim and Gladbach too. Especially since TSG are in the throes of a crisis.
Odds Analysis
But I liked the defense a lot despite the complicated squad situation. Only Barcelona’s powerful offense shook BVB well in the 3-2 win. Therefore, I dare to at least go for the “double chance X2”.
I expect stability to make the difference in this match and BVB currently has an advantage over Wolfsburg in this regard.
In the last two matches alone, they have conceded five goals, and, given the chances they have allowed, they have not deserved to lose them all.
I therefore definitely have the double strike of the men from Dortmund on my wish list. The 1.82 is a good alternative to Dortmund’s victory. If you mix the two together, I would recommend that anyway, if it absolutely has to be BVB’s victory, wait for 2.50.
I can’t imagine a close 1-0 with the best will in the world. In 22 competitive games, there has been exactly one 1-0 victory for Dortmund.
Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund odds: What does the betting community think?
Winamax offers not only great odds, which are also free of betting tax, but also the opportunity to see how many users have opted for which odds in each market. The distribution is shown in percentages below the odds, a great feature!
So far, everyone has opted for the “Yes” option when it comes to both teams scoring, which is 1.52 here, also a good choice in my opinion.
The category highlights frequently placed bets for each match. In the trend for the Wolfsburg Dortmund game, in addition to both teams scoring, the Dortmund victory, the “X2” and over 1.5 goals. So the community agrees with my selection.
You are also likely to approve of the new customer bonus from Interwetten. Click on the graphic, register and collect up to 100 euros for your bets.
Dortmund’s defense is crumbling
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Let’s take a look at the current injury situation of the teams. At BVB, the defense is particularly hurting. Fortunately for BVB, Nico Schlotterbeck recovered in time for the Hoffenheim match.
Otherwise, the result could have been quite different. Nuri Sahin didn’t have many alternatives, and he put up a controversial Can alongside Schlotterbeck. Waldemar Anton and Niklas Süle are injured.
In addition, the two Julians, Brandt and Ryerson are not there. Overall, however, Sahin should be able to put together a team that should still be clearly superior to Wolfsburg in terms of quality.
Besides, the Wolves’ injury list is also quite long. Sebastiaan Bornauw, Rogerio, Aster Vranckx, Kevin Paredes, Lovro Majer and Bartosz Bialek are currently struggling with injuries.
And the last duels? In the cup, we only saw one goal in 120 minutes. Last season, Dortmund won their home game 1-0, and the teams drew 1-1 when they met away.
The reason why I am betting on “double chance” pro Dortmund is the fact that Wolfsburg has not had much joy against Dortmund in the Bundesliga in recent years. Of the last 18 games, the Wolves have only won one.
My Tip:
Yes, Dortmund still has a few players on the injury list. Nevertheless, the defense did not look bad, which the fifth of last year delivered against the ball. Wolfsburg also can’t field the perfect starting eleven on Sunday.
Defensively, the VfL presented itself very poorly. And against Dortmund, the hosts will have a harder time combining.
Even though they have not scored enough goals this season, and none at all away from home, I expect Dortmund to take at least a point into the Christmas break. After Wolfsburg’s brave performances recently, I do not expect this game to be low on goals.
My Wolfsburg Dortmund prediction: Double chance X2 & Over 1.5 goals!
