Champions League, Tuesday, 26.11.2024 at 21:00
The injury-plagued Young Boys have little reason to celebrate at national level this season, while Atalanta Bergamo are well on their way to winning their first championship.
Particularly noteworthy: in the Champions League, the Italians are the only team that is still unbeaten after four matchdays and yet is not in a direct knockout round place.
This seemingly paradoxical situation puts additional pressure on the visitors, who have to survive in Bern’s Wankdorf. The artificial turf could – or so the home fans hope – become a trump card for YB, who traditionally perform strongly on their unfamiliar home surface.
Meanwhile, you can find out how this factor is actually reflected in the duel and which soccer bets are particularly worthwhile in my Young Boys Atalanta Bergamo betting tip.
Both teams know each other very well – even the shirt sponsor was identical a few seasons ago.
However, the sporting picture is currently very different: Bergamo are on the up, while the Bernese are still on the downswing after their 1-1 draw against Luzern at the weekend.
Atalanta have remained unbeaten in their two matches so far in the 2021/22 Champions League season: a 1-0 home win and a spectacular 3-3 draw in Switzerland. My Young Boys Atalanta Bergamo prediction therefore clearly goes in the direction of the Italians, who are simply in better form at the moment.
I doubt that YB can beat the reigning Europa League winners when they have already lost almost half of their league games in the Swiss Super League.
The bookmakers’ forecast
It is interesting to note that Young Boys’ artificial turf advantage does not seem to carry too much weight in the bookmakers’ assessment.
The Young Boys Atalanta Bergamo odds in the Intertops app leave no doubt as to how one-sided the bookmakers’ assessment of the balance of power is.
A win for the Swiss is priced at 7.25 on average, while even a draw is priced at 5.00. Atalanta, on the other hand, are the clear favorites with odds of 1.40.
KI prediction Young Boys vs Atalanta Bergamo: This is what ChatGPT
The Atalanta Bergamo Young Boys AI prediction from ChatGPT provides a colorful range of suggestions. Here are my thoughts on the three tips!
The risky option, “Atalanta Bergamo win and less than 2.5 goals are scored in total”, has a 75% chance of convincing me.
Although their last competitive match together on this pitch ended 3-3, the Bergamo side could actually keep a clean sheet to the end on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, unlike the AI, I would also have included a 0:3 and a possible 0:4 for ATA in this Young Boys Atalanta Bergamo prediction.
The medium-risk tip, “Bergamo to score in both halves”, on the other hand, convinces me completely. The Italians are known for their offensive strength and have often scored in both halves in recent years.
With odds that lead to more than doubling the stake, this is definitely a recommendation that I would go along with.
However, the supposedly safe option, “Over 2.5 goals”, doesn’t seem to me to be a good choice, at least not at these low odds.
Even if I actually expect more than three total goals in the Wankdorf, that doesn’t mean that YB will necessarily have to take part in this goal festival.
Analysis: Young Boys vs Atalanta Bergamo
It seems that every top Swiss club has a horror season at regular intervals.
Basel have been hit in recent years, as has Zurich, and now in 2024/25 it seems to be the turn of the reigning champions from the canton of Bern.
YB are only in the second half of the table in the Super League and are 34th out of 36 in the Champions League with 0 points.
Particularly bitter: only Red Star (16) and Bratislava (15) have conceded more goals than Young Boys (11).
Aston Villa (3:0) and Barcelona in particular (5:0) swept past the Bernese without mercy on the first two matchdays.
Atalanta Bergamo, on the other hand, are having an absolute dream season and if they want to top 2023/24, it has to be either the Champions League or the Scudetto this season. Especially as they are hot on the heels of the defending champions after their 3:1 win over Parma.
At any rate, Atalanta have not lost a competitive match since October and are masters at avoiding conceding goals. After 360 minutes of play in the top flight, they are still on a clean sheet.
And after Arsenal (0:0), Donetsk (3:0) and Stuttgart (2:0), YB will be the supposedly easiest task for them on their way to the knockout phase. The
Ratings analysis
The “Both teams not to score” bet at odds of 2.05 is generous in my opinion, as it is rather unlikely that YB will score a goal, especially after the 0:1 against Inter.
Considering that Atalanta usually defend well, it seems very plausible that they could win by zero.
The combination bet “Atalanta to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0” in the Bwin app at odds of around the current 3.20 offers an even more attractive option, as it equally covers the different scenarios for a commanding Atalanta victory.
Young Boys vs Atalanta Bergamo odds: YB without a chance?
The euphoria among Young Boys fans is limited ahead of this match – and for good reason. Despite temptingly high home win odds, I would advise you to refrain from betting on the hosts.
The statistics clearly speak against the Bernese: they have only won one of their last eight encounters with Italian teams in Europe (1:2 against Juventus in December 2018). Since then, they have failed to win in five encounters (1 draw, 4 defeats).
In addition, Young Boys have lost all of their last five Champions League games – another failure would even take their negative record this season to an all-time low.
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Atalanta: Zero is not equal to zero!
It’s not just impressive that Atalanta have yet to concede a goal in the UEFA Champions League – it’s the way they’ve achieved it.
With only 2.3 expected goals conceded, they are one of the most defensively solid teams in the competition, along with Inter Milan and Paris SG. Their defense is almost impenetrable and hardly allows any chances.
Therefore, one could make a good data-based argument that Atalanta currently have the best defense in Europe, nipping opposing chances in the bud. Can YB really make a dent in that?
On the other hand, Young Boys’ offense in particular has made a very different impression. With a shot conversion rate of just 2.1%, they are the worst team in this category, with just one goal from 47 shots.
This inefficiency in front of goal makes it extremely difficult to score against a team as strong as Atalanta. They will struggle to score against this compact defense – especially if they continue to squander their few chances.
To make matters worse, Young Boys often concede goals before half-time in the Champions League – five times in the last 15 minutes.
This makes a goal bet on Atalanta between the 30th and 45th minute of the match in the Betano app at odds of around 2.25 extremely interesting. After all, YB have conceded almost half of their goals in this time frame (5 out of 11).
My Young Boys Atalanta Bergamo tip:
My Young Boys Atalanta Bergamo prediction suggests a commanding win for the visitors from Bergamo.
The home side are currently having a poor season and are in realistic danger of not being able to play in the Champions League next season.
Their attack is extremely inefficient and will hardly be effective against a well-organized team like ATA.
Atalanta Bergamo, on the other hand, are defensively solid and should be able to hold off the Swiss side’s pressure. Their strong defensive line and controlled forward play suggest that they will pave their way into the knockout phase with a commanding one-nil victory
