Miami Masters, 2nd round, Saturday, 22.03.2025, 16:00
Alexander Zverev can become number one in the world rankings in the absence of Jannik Sinner, who is banned for doping. But to do so, the Hamburg-born player must first collect enough points. In Indian Wells, this went completely awry. There, his opening match against Tallon Griekspoor was over straight away.
His opening hurdle in Miami is somewhat easier. He had beaten Jacob Fearnley in three straight sets at the Australian Open. In the faster conditions compared to last week, I think he can win again at his favorite venue without losing a set – my Zverev Fearnley tip at Winamax!
In addition to a Grand Slam title, Zverev’s big dream is to top the world rankings. He can achieve this goal in the foreseeable future. To do so, he needs to collect almost 3,000 points until Sinner’s ban expires. The South Tyrolean is not allowed to play any tournaments until May 4th.
In Miami, however, Zverev must first defend his own points until the semi-finals, which is how far he got in the last edition. He has yet to win the tournament, having reached the final against John Isner in 2018.
The faster court conditions, the weather conditions and the fact that his favorite basketball team plays in Miami ensure that he always enjoys traveling to the second 1,000 of the year. Factors that could be decisive in getting back on track!
After the Australian Open, not much has gone right so far. At the Golden Swing in Buenos Aires and Rio, it was only enough to reach the quarter-finals. In Acapulco, he even had to retire in round two against Learner Tien. Before that, Francisco Comesana took him out of the field.
Opponents that he will definitely have to beat in the future to reach the top of the world rankings. At the first Masters, he faced his perennial rival Tallon Griekspoor, who finally managed to beat Zverev again after five losses in a row. He won the decisive two tiebreaks in sets two and three.
The number 34 at the start was not an easy draw for Zverev, now he starts against the 83rd seed. Zverev is favored at 1.18, a Fearnley win bet can be placed at 4.80 at Winamax.
The Brit is no stranger to Zverev. He already had to play the 23-year-old in the third round of Melbourne, where the underdog took the first two service games of the tournament from him, but ultimately had no chance at 3-6, 4-6, 4-6.
Zverev managed to get five breaks and was clearly the most dangerous server with a whopping 72 percent success rate on his first serves. These will come into play more than last week on the faster courts.
We can expect some quick points for Zverev. At the same time, the balls still bounce high enough, an important aspect for the 1.98 meter tall German, from whom I expect a reaction and an aggressive game from the first minute.
Due to the recent defeats, we get a whopping 1.60 for the smooth Zverev success, which is free of betting taxes at Winamax, where you can get up to 100 euros free bet credit as a newcomer. The first duel and the conditions are in Zverev’s favor.
How good is Fearnley? The Brit came through the qualifiers without losing a set and then took out Benjamin Bonzi in three sets, having to fight off seven break chances in the process and ultimately winning the match despite scoring eight points fewer than his opponent.
As against Zverev in Melbourne, he had to make up ground, especially on the second serve. He was even shakier against Nuno Borges a tournament earlier at the Challenger in Phoenix. That’s not enough against Zverev, who has a strong return game…
My Zverev Fearnley tip
In Melbourne, the duel was a clear-cut affair and in Miami I expect another Zverev win without losing a set. The world number 2 not only has a much better serve, but also has a quality advantage on the return.
His opponent is only just getting started in 2025, but is very susceptible, especially on the second serve, and – like Zverev in the past – often makes too many double faults.
I’m therefore assuming that Zverev will consistently serve through and occasionally grab a break to win the match in two rounds. Last year, he didn’t drop a set until the semi-finals and only lost one service game in four matches!
My Zverev Fearnley tip: Zverev wins in two sets
