US Open, round of 16, Sunday, 01.09.2024, 22:30
Will they finally win their first Grand Slam title? Two of the top favorites, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, are eliminated surprisingly early. However, the “unfinished man” first has to solve the task of the round of 16 against Brandon Nakashima.
Alexander Zverev got off to a weak start in his last match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, but was able to recover and dominated the match from that point on. I don’t expect him to lose more than one set against the American.
That’s why I’m backing Zverev to win with a -1.5 set handicap from Bet365
“You realize that, maybe it was a bit disturbing somewhere because I know that Novak is no longer in my half,” explained Zverev after his success against Etcheverry. Perhaps he was still thinking about the tournament tree when he slept through the start against Etcheverry.
But the improvement in performance was not long in coming. From the middle of the second set, Zverev took control and headed for his third victory at the US Open 2024. He had previously beaten his compatriot Maximilian Marterer and Alexandre Muller.
I see Nakashima as the strongest opponent on hard court so far. In 2022, he won the Next Generation ATP Finals as a highly esteemed talent, and in the same year he won his 250 tournament in San Diego.
Further successes failed to materialize due to a long injury-related slump in form. His left knee threw him off track
He gradually improved over the Challenger level. From this year’s grass court season onwards, he was able to make his mark again, reaching the semi-finals in Stuttgart and at least the third round at Wimbledon.
This is the second time in a row that Nakashima has reached the last 16 of a major tournament. He achieved the feat at Wimbledon in 2022. Unsurprisingly, however, he starts as the clear outsider against the world’s number four with odds of over 4.00 to win.
Zverev is assigned 1.22. At NEObet, where great odds boost promotions are always waiting, you can even get a betting tax-free 1.24 for Zverev’s success. He has already beaten Nakashima at the US Open in the past.
It was the premiere duel between the two tennis stars in 2020, with Nakashima starting out as an inexperienced 19-year-old. He managed to take one set from Zverev, with the Hamburg-born player winning 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-1 in the end.
Two years later, they faced each other on the red clay of Paris, with Zverev again coming out on top. On Zverev’s favorite surface, he didn’t concede a single game, but had to go into a tie-break twice.
One was also played out in the first duel in New York. That almost calls for a tiebreak bet, but it’s a little too low. Depending on the bookmaker, a 1.40 is waiting for this market. Zverev played one against Muller and Marterer, Nakashima one against Lorenzo Musetti in the last round
The Italian managed to beat Zverev in the quarter-finals of the Olympic Games, but was taken out of the field by Nakashima in New York, conceding his first ever set loss in the tournament and also losing his first three service games.
And with the up-and-coming Arthur Cazaux and Holger Rune, he had anything but run-of-the-mill opponents. If Zverev is in rhythm, it is also almost impossible to take a service game from him.
You should therefore keep an eye on the tiebreak odds: eight tiebreaks in Zverev’s last nine matches!
However, I personally think the “-1.5 set handicap” option for a Zverev victory at 1.50 odds is even better. In terms of return game, I see clear advantages for the German, and Zverev is the more complete, more mature player in this matchup anyway
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My Nakashima Zverev tip
Zverev had short periods of weakness, but mastered the first three rounds in the end without any trouble. I even liked his game against the serve better than his service games. Nakashima should have more problems getting through his service games than in the previous rounds.
And yes, the American beat Rune and Musetti. However, the former is still in a slump and Musetti is not as strong on hard court as he is on clay. Zverev is a two-time ATP Finals champion and Olympic champion on hard court.
He also has much more experience than Nakashima for such an important Grand Slam match. Zverev already reached the final against Dominic Thiem in 2020. All factors that lead me to the following bet.
My Nakashima Zverev tip: Victory Zverev (-1.5 set HC)
