Grand Prix of Sao Paulo, Sunday, 03.11.2024 at 4:30 pm
Is the World Cup going to be exciting again? After Austin and with 57 points, Max Verstappen’s situation had actually eased. But after the Mexican GP, things look different again. As was to be expected, he clashed with Lando Norris again.
This time, the three-time world champion was penalized, and twice at that, with a total time penalty of 20 seconds. Verstappen only came in sixth and lost ten points to the McLaren driver – and now he has to start five places further back in Brazil due to a new engine.
So in a normal race, he shouldn’t be in with a chance of winning or finishing on the podium. Or should he? In the sprint race, Verstappen was significantly faster than the Ferraris, even faster than the McLarens in front. In dry conditions and a long race, I clearly see him on the podium.
And in the rain, he is one of the best drivers, in my opinion he is the best. In my opinion, no other driver can consistently push the car to the limit like he can. That gives him an extra advantage in the rain. The 3.50 for the top 3 odds is high. However, starting position 17 is also critical after Sunday morning’s chaotic qualifying.
I think he will finish in the top three, but I’ll bet that Leclerc will miss out on the podium. Ferrari didn’t look good in the wet, and the Monegasque driver only managed sixth place in qualifying. Norris starts from pole.
My streak continues. For the last eight world championship races, I have always given you a successful betting tip, with eleven of the last twelve forecasts being a bull’s eye. Of course, I want to continue this streak until the end of the season, but I still dare to bet a 3.00, which is clearly too high for me. I would have expected odds of around 1.50.
This weekend, one of the most spectacular races of the year is coming up, the Sao Paulo Grand Prix. The Autódromo José Carlos Pace has already seen some Formula 1 history made.
The 2008 finale, when Lewis Hamilton became world champion with an overtaking maneuver in the last corner, is unforgettable, but also the last race in 2012, when Sebastian Vettel was spun around by local hero Bruno Senna on the first lap and, with a damaged car, put on a mega chase to catch up to take his third world championship title.
Starting grid for the Sao Paulo GP
Let’s see how exciting the “2024 chapter” will be. In any case, the weather forecasts whet our appetite for the race even more, even though Saturday’s qualifying literally fell through. It is also supposed to be a rainy Sunday, but hopefully it will at least stay within limits so that we can see moving cars.
I have very unpleasant memories of the race in Belgium, when the drivers only covered a few laps behind the safety car to get a classification for the race and for points to be awarded. The fans in the grandstands were kept waiting for hours.
But in Brazil it was mostly changeable, which makes it even more exciting. It could be an intense day at work for the pit crews.
Let’s take a look at the odds for victory from Betano. Norris is in the lead here with 1.47, but it’s a close fight between McLaren and Ferrari at the moment.
Recently, however, Oscar Piastri, who has improved overall in 2024, has fallen behind this quartet. He is only at 13.5.
McLaren is the most consistent team in 2024 and also leads the constructors’ championship. Why still? Ferrari is putting pressure on, overtook Red Bull in Mexico and now wants to hold its own against McLaren in the battle of the traditional racing teams.
Only 29 points separate the teams, so an improvement in Piastri’s form would be extremely important for McLaren now; he has only finished eighth and fifth recently.
With a desolate Perez, who may be replaced after the race in Brazil, and a Red Bull that has recently been unable to keep up with Ferrari and McLaren in the long run, the 2024 world champions are likely to only finish third.
Verstappen will now start five places further back in Brazil because he has to exceed the permitted engine quota. This is a great opportunity for Norris to make up further points on the title defender and increase the pressure.
The last 5 races at the Autódromo José Carlos Pace:
A safety car phase in the second half of the race or a red flag is definitely likely if the conditions are adverse. It is highly likely that the track will be wet given the heavy raincloud cover. Bernd Mayländer’s deployment at 1.20 is on every Sunday license for me.
Will Norris control the race at the front? I expect a very tough race in which the slightest mistake can mean the end. On top of that, he also has the pressure of wanting to bag points in the World Championship fight.
And I wouldn’t completely write off Verstappen, even though he started from 17th place. He was sometimes seconds faster than Norris in qualifying. Also, there may be unfavorable red flags and safety car phases for him.
Therefore, the 2.50 for the rest of the field in the duel against Norris is not bad at Oddset.
Conclusion: Ferrari did not cut a good figure on a wet track, and was only panting behind in the sprint to the top. Sainz crashed in the subsequent main race qualifier, and Leclerc only managed sixth place.
I see the Italians lagging behind in the race in these adverse conditions, with Verstappen storming up from behind and Piastri hot on their heels. After two strong race weekends for Ferrari, this time it should be a podium without Leclerc.
My Formula 1 Sao Paulo GP prediction: Leclerc not in the top 3
