ATP Finals in Turin, group stage, Sunday, 10/11/2024, 2:00 p.m.
The grand finale of the 2024 tennis season is coming up! The top eight players of the season will face each other at the ATP Finals. All the superstars of the scene except for Novak Djokovic will be there.
Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz are starting off, and it’s a close match right from the start! At least that’s what I expect between the two hard court players, who are currently at a similar level.
That’s why I’m using an over-game bet from Tipwin in my Medvedev Fritz tip, choosing the line with over 22.5 games.
Medvedev against Fritz, both have been among the world’s best for several years, especially on hard courts, but they have only met twice so far, and that was in 2022. At the time, they were playing the Cincinnati quarterfinals, a 7-6, 6-4 for Medvedev.
Four months later, an exhibition tournament took place in Saudi Arabia, where Fritz and Medvedev met in the final. The American was able to get revenge for the defeat in the States by winning two tiebreaks.
Three tiebreaks in four sets, but there is still a strong 1.69 on Bet365 for at least one on Sunday afternoon. In my opinion, these are great odds. At Bet365, you can follow the ATP Finals live for free.
Winamax also offers a live stream feature, where you currently get a €15 free bet before you even make your first deposit and can receive a further €100 in free bet credit with your first top-up. The winnings from this are directly payable.
In addition, you will find odds without betting tax at both Bet365 and Winamax, so you get five percent more profit. Another advantage is the various specials and odds boosts for customers.
The victory odds of Medvedev (1.63) and Fritz (2.20) already show that we shouldn’t expect a walkover. Over the year, both have performed similarly. Medvedev was in the final in Melbourne, Fritz played in the final in New York. Both lost in the end to high-flyer Jannik Sinner.
In terms of the points tally going into Turin, the difference between the two stars, who have a dangerous first serve, is only around 500 points. As mentioned in the introduction, I currently see both at a similar level, but they differ in terms of their play.
Fritz is the more dangerous man over the service games, has on average the better ratio of first serves and knows more about the second than Medvedev, who likes to make up for his service mistakes, also in the form of double faults, with his strong defense.
He bears the nickname “Bear”, for the experts he is long since known as the “Octopus” because of his long arms and the fact that he can still reach many balls. Medvedev is particularly dangerous on the counterattack.
After two wins at the start, he lost last year as a player who had already qualified in the last group match against Carlos Alcaraz and then in the semi-final against Sinner.
Things went better in 2020, when he won the year-end tournament; in 2021 he was also in the final, but lost to Alexander Zverev. Fritz, on the other hand, is taking part in the ATP Finals for the first time.
Like Medvedev, Fritz recently made it to the second round of the Paris Masters. Both lost in three sets, Fritz to Jack Draper and Medvedev to Alexei Popyrin.
I expect a match in which both players will not give away many chances on their serves and that the sets will be long with changing phases of strength.
A tiebreak and even a third set is realistic, but the two odds are too hot for me individually, which is why I am opting for the over-game variant, a mixture of both, without the need for one to occur.
A price of 2.10 is available for three sets. Alternatively, for a higher overall odds and with a bit of risk, you can combine both odds into 2.80 using the Bet365 bet configurator.
My Medvedev Fritz betting tip
Medvedev and Fritz have played four sets so far, three of which required a tiebreak to be decided. As far as I’m concerned, both players are only among the extended favorites for the finals after this year.
Medvedev has not had his best year and the baseline specialist Fritz is still lacking something to reach the top class.
In the first final game of 2024, I expect few breaks; so far, there has only been one between Medvedev and Fritz. I definitely think placing a win bet is too tricky. With Sinner in the group, this duel is a must-win. Everything is being thrown into this!
My Medvedev Fritz betting tip: Over 22.5 games
