Bundesliga 11th matchday, Sunday, 24/11/2024 at 5:30 pm
As a promoted team, finally back in our Bundesliga 1 tips after many years? On the one hand, nice, but on the other hand, quite overwhelming! The Kiezkicker are still struggling, but of course they are hoping that I will come up with a positive prediction for them in my Gladbach St. Pauli betting tip.
Unfortunately, I can’t anticipate my detailed analysis, which is exactly what I’m doing. The foals are finally experiencing something of a consistent phase, with home strength in particular slowly returning to the Lower Rhine.
Now, of course, the Hamburgers are not doing badly, but as is so often the case with promoted teams, they too lack (in addition to a weak offense) the necessary bit of luck. But: business trips are all the more surprising for the Pauli fans.
I will explain to you shortly what the matter is with the team that is actually strong at home. The Gladbach St. Pauli odds have been based on the home side, you get to see an average of 1.80 to 4.40.
For me, it’s now time to do some research, because the weakest attack in the league has not lost often recently despite that. And when Pauli thinks back to their last appearance at Borussia Park in 2010, only good memories come to mind!
The betting providers’ prediction?
The last three home games have been won by Gladbach, who have finally started a winning streak. The bookmakers are confident that VfL will add a fourth, and the odds are set at 1.80 accordingly.
On the other hand, Pauli have won both of their away games and have only conceded one goal in their last three games. In this respect, the guests can certainly live with the away quota of 4.40.
Both teams have shared the points twice so far (interestingly, there were three 0-0 draws). If there is no winner on Sunday, the odds would indicate an approximate 3.70.
KI-Prognose Gladbach vs St. Pauli: Darauf tippt ChatGPT
Anyone who has been following the 1st Bundesliga with ChatGPT knows that it is possible to display betting tips with high, medium and low risk here. I have done this work for Pauli and Gladbach for you.
You are taking a high risk with the “Draw & BTS” bet. A 1-1 seems entirely possible to me. Hamburg are known for their close results, and although Gladbach have not been beaten in a few weeks, they only win occasionally. So my opinion is: makes sense!
If you are more of a medium-risk player, the AI recommends the bet “Gladbach scores in both halves”. With twelve goals conceded, FC St. Pauli’s defense is not that bad, and Gladbach has “only” scored in both halves in their last two home games. So I’m not really convinced by this tip.
The “low” risk means that more than 1.5 goals will be scored – this has not been the case for Pauli four times! But since four Gladbach home games even beat the 3.5 goals, this bet gets my approval. However, the odds are correspondingly low.
Analysis: Gladbach vs St. Pauli
Ninth place – what exactly do you do with this interim result? At Borussia Mönchengladbach, no one is quite sure what the objective for the 2024/25 season actually is.
The Foals have had a few unsuccessful years, so a single-digit finish away from the relegation battle would not be so bad at all. Four wins, two draws, four defeats and 15:14 goals – absolutely mediocre!
Those who support VfL will be very happy that a consistent phase is just starting to emerge. The team has not lost in four games and fought hard for a 0-0 draw against RB Leipzig before the international break.
It was already the third clean sheet this season – in the entire last season, only four teams managed to keep a clean sheet. What they have not yet managed to do is win two games in a row.
All the better that the last three home games have ended successfully and the Foals are now able to play in front of their fans again. 4:1 against Bremen, 3:2 against Heidenheim and 1:0 against Union Berlin, there have not been four consecutive wins since 2019/20.
Odds analysis
The Gladbachers should be able to go into the game with a tailwind after three consecutive home wins, and they also have the fan support guaranteed. Therefore, I am betting on the foals to win 1-0, which comes at odds of 1.57 at Betano – you can also look forward to the welcome bonus here.
I also think the guests have a chance of getting a point here. If the Kiezkicker manage not to be behind after the first 45 minutes, you could also benefit from odds of 1.57.
Of course, the chances of winning and risk are significantly higher with an outcome bet. A 1-1 draw actually springs to mind. If you follow this tip, you will be rewarded with odds of 7.00 at Bet365.
Gladbach vs. St. Pauli: What are the chances of many goals?
The 1-0 win against Union, which was scored with the final whistle, doesn’t really fit into the picture. Before that, there was a 2-3 defeat against Leverkusen and a 1-3 defeat against Stuttgart, so four of the five results revealed a lot of goals.
This makes it all the more difficult to assess the team correctly. Gladbach can be on course for a spectacle in 2024/25, but efficient, defensive performances are also possible.
Of course, Tim Kleindienst deserves a special mention. In his last two home games, the striker was involved in five goals, and he has scored six for his new employer.
St. Pauli must find the attacking football
At Betano, you can get odds of 2.20 on the corresponding goal bet. But: St. Pauli is his bogey team! He has lost six times against the Hamburgers, more often than against any other club.
In 2015, Gladbach won against Pauli in the cup, but there has not been a Bundesliga game between the two since 2011. In 2010/11, both duels were lost, but since players like Gerald Asamoah and Mike Hanke were on the pitch at the time, these results should no longer be given much importance.
For the Hamburg team, this is not a trip to a bogey opponent. The Bundesliga returnee has lost six of its first ten games, putting it in the relegation spot. But Pauli is almost never without a chance.
Most recently, there was a 0-1 against FC Bayern, a 1-2 against Dortmund or a 0-1 at Union Berlin. It was only really clear in the 0-3 against Mainz. But what’s problematic is what the offense produces – not much, in fact.
With only seven goals, it is the worst in the league, and three goals alone are due to the match against Freiburg (3-0). The Pauli team only manages 30 shots on the opposing boxes, against FCB it was not a single one.
Particularly curious: we actually know the FCST as a club that is strong at home, but not a single goal has been scored in the five previous encounters at the Millerntor! Somehow, the team has had an easier time of it when they have been allowed to play away.
In Freiburg and Hoffenheim, they won, and in the last four away games, they always managed to score an own goal. Are there any personnel updates I need to check out?
In addition to the injury of superstar Elias Saad, there are further absences looming. Robert Wagner, Philipp Treu and Scott Banks are the main focus, but it remains to be seen which of the trio will be fit in time for Sunday.
My Gladbach St. Pauli Tip:
The world of FC St. Pauli is not quite in order, but the Hamburgers are by no means without a chance when it comes to avoiding relegation! After the international break, the weakest offense in the league has to play in Gladbach and wants to sell itself dearly again.
The promoted team can actually keep up with almost any opponent. The Gladbach team has impressed me with three home wins in a row, has not lost in four games and suddenly they also seem to be able to defend.
Taking all these facts together, on the one hand I don’t think that the foals will lose at home. However, the few goals scored by the guests, combined with a fairly stable defense, encourage me to add an under-addition, so my tip is:
Gladbach scores with under 3.5 goals!
