Bundesliga 11th matchday, Sunday, 11/24/2024 at 3:30 pm
Kiel is aiming for the next points on Sunday. Currently, the promoted team is only ranked 17th and has collected just five points. An improvement in the ranking would not be possible with a win, but the team could catch up with the lower midfield.
However, the guests, who have only lost one of their last five games, are favorites in this duel.
In my Kiel Mainz betting tip, I expect two teams to play for a win. Kiel will throw everything into their home game against one of the more feasible opponents in the league, and Mainz will also push on against the newcomer to the top flight.
The goal of both teams from the traditional betting provider Oddset is the perfect odds in my opinion.
The betting providers’ prediction
Time to take a look at the odds for the match. Bet365 gives the guests from Mainz 2.30, but the zero-five team, with the more notable players in their squad and their good start to the 2023/25 season, are rightfully ahead in my opinion.
Kiel has a 3.10, the home win is rated as more likely than the draw (3.40). There have only been two draws for the storks so far. Mainz has already shared the points four times in ten games.
KI prediction Kiel vs. Mainz: That’s what ChatGPT tips
For this match, we again asked the AI for an assessment and ChatGPT fully agrees with my odds, suggesting both teams even in the low-risk variant.
The fact that Kiel and Mainz are going for three points here is a decisive argument, and Kiel are also dangerous in front of the opposing box, but so far they have not shown a Bundesliga-ready defense, only Bochum have let more slip.
The average of 2.5 goals conceded per game is huge!
In seven out of ten Kiel games, both teams scored. Only a handful of other teams would have won this bet more often. At home, there were a total of 14 goals, and no one has scored more at home than Kiel. However, Bayern have already been there.
The AI’s medium-risk suggestion is an away win for Mainz. Sure, Kiel has lost the most games, but Mainz is more stable and is still unbeaten away from home.
Ultimately, however, Kiel will throw everything into the game and the promoted team has even managed to get a point in Leverkusen and in Bremen (1-2) the team only lost unluckily given the strong second half. Therefore, the 2.30 for Mainz is too hot for me.
Then maybe the variant that carries a high risk is better? Here, too, ChatGPT chooses the Mainz success, albeit from a backlog.
The odds look tempting, but Mainz have never turned a match around and Kiel have never lost after taking the lead, so I don’t have the statistical basis for that.
Analysis: Kiel vs. Mainz
Kiel celebrated their first Bundesliga three-point haul in the club’s history in their last home game, a 1-0 win against Heidenheim. Given their performances in recent weeks and months, it could have been more points for the northern club.
In addition to the game in Bremen, for example, there was the bitter 2-0 defeat to Union Berlin, in which the Störche were at least on a par.
With 41 shots on target, Kiel is in the middle of the pack in this category, and incidentally has the same number as Mainz so far. For example, only two shots on target are missing against RB Leipzig, a remarkable number for the team with the smallest squad value in the league.
Mainz has a team worth almost three times as much in millions of euros. The lack of quality in defense is also evident from the 175 goals allowed, with only Frankfurt allowing more.
Nevertheless, the 25 goals are too many in terms of the quality of the chances. Kiel conceded 7.3 goals more than expected, with only Bochum coming away even unhappier with a difference of 12.7.
Odds analysis
On top of that, the hosts are missing central defender Colin-Kleine-Bekel, who has a torn cruciate ligament and has not yet been able to play a minute in the Bundesliga. He is out along with Carl Johansson and Magnus Knudsen, who is serving a one-match suspension.
Mainz have also not had the best defensive record, with 149 chances created against and 14 goals conceded. In terms of personnel, however, they have a full complement of players to choose from in defense. Nelson Weiper and Karim Onisiwo are the only absentees.
Overall, Mainz have only lost three games and have not lost a game away from home, so at least the “double chance X2” is an option. At Winamax, the bet is among the coveted odds, at 1.41. The overall odds are even better if you add the goal of both teams.
At Winamax, you can not only see what the community is betting on most frequently, you also get a wide range of odds that are high compared to other betting providers and, above all, tax-free.
After registration, you can also get free bets worth 100 euros. Special offers, challenges and odds boosts are regularly available to existing customers too.
Kiel vs. Mainz odds: Burkardt goal with interesting odds
Mainz recently celebrated a 3-1 win against Dortmund after drawing 1-1 with Gladbach and losing 0-0 to Freiburg. Jonny Burkardt scored again in that game, but so far he has mainly liked to score away from home, scoring five of his six goals on trips.
He only failed to score in the goalless draw against Sport-Club. His odds for a goal are 2.55, not bad!
At the moment I’m writing this, 93 percent of users have placed bets on the 24-year-old.
The Oddset bonus is also a strong choice. Just click on the banner, reveal the bonus code and get up to 110 euros for your bets.
Kiel also has a goalscorer!
While Burkardt is the most prolific scorer for the zero fives with his six goals, Shuto Machino is the most reliable for Kiel, having pushed four balls over the line so far.
He is considered the top man by the bookmakers at 3.30, but has only come off the bench in his last four appearances. “We are spoilt for choice in attack,” said head coach Marcel Rapp before the game against Werder.
A Machino bet is very likely for me against Mainz overall, but personally I find the 2.55 for Burkardt of the already favored guests significantly more lucrative.
Let’s take a look at the direct duels between Kiel and Mainz. In the league, it comes on Sunday for the first encounter in history.
In the 2010s, the teams met twice in the DFB Cup.
In 2011, Holstein beat FSV 2-0 in the round of 16.
The second leg in 2017 was more of a thriller, with Mainz holding home and holding their own after a 2-2 draw in regular time to win 3-2 in extra time.
My Kiel Mainz Tip:
I’ll be watching this game with relish, because we’ll see two teams who want to take three points by hook or by crook, but especially the hosts, who urgently need points to avoid relegation.
A home match against Mainz is one of those games that should definitely yield three points if Kiel wants to play in the top flight again next season. The Kielers play very offensively as they do in the second division, but they concede a lot of goals due to the painful long-term absence of Kleine-Bekel.
The decisive second half should be particularly exciting, with over 1.5 goals in the second half already worth considering. But first and foremost, I am convinced that both teams will score at least one goal.
My Kiel Mainz prediction: Both teams to score!
