Bundesliga matchday 12, Saturday, 30.11.2024 at 15:30
Gala performance by Leverkusen in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso’s team set off a firework display in attack against Salzburg, winning 5:0 to secure their third victory and secure a place in the last 16 with three games to go.
Bayer have only won one of their last four games in the Bundesliga, with Union coming up against one of the best defenses.
I assume that the visitors will take the momentum from the CL match with them and, despite the thinned-out offense, score at least two goals and win. NEO.bet has 2.10 odds ready!
29 goals scored, 4.56 expected goals, Leverkusen really put one over on Salzburg. Their place in Europe beyond the winter is practically assured, now the only thing left to decide is whether they reach the round of 16 or the intermediate round.
Leverkusen scored five goals against Heidenheim and, with 79 percent possession, had complete control of the game and once again showed comeback qualities, coming back from 2-0 down.
The oddsmakers’ prediction
The rather high odds for Leverkusen surprise me, I can definitely recommend the 1.76 for the visitors, but I don’t see a close 1:0 here, which is why I add the “Over 1.5 goals” for an even better 2.10.
For the Union win, the betting providers with a German license offer 4.40, the draw is in the 3.80 range. Whether the AI also sees value in the Leverkusen odds?
KI prediction Union Berlin vs. Leverkusen: ChatGPT
The “Over 2.5 goals” odds are a low-risk bet for ChatGPT. We get 1.80 for this, which differs from side to side. Not a bad option after the recent thumping victories, but a 2:0 against a well-positioned Berlin team would not be covered by this bet.
The “Over 2.5 goals” are also part of the medium risk bet, and the AI also adds the goal from both teams on top. I get a 2.18 for this at NEO.bet, which I like better.
Especially as Leverkusen have not been able to keep a clean sheet in the past five away games across all competitions.
ChatGPT comes more in my direction with the third proposed bet, which is assigned the classification “high risk”. Leverkusen win both halves.
Here we are already above the 4.00 mark, which I think is a good choice after the two recent wins, even if it was only 2:2 at the break against Heidenheim after the 0:2 shock.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs. Leverkusen
Victor Boniface, Martin Terrier, Amine Adli and Jonas Hofmann are currently missing due to injury. That doesn’t leave many alternatives. Especially as Patrik Schick is not exactly a player who remains injury-free over the course of a season.
In a 3-5-2, he formed a front two with Florian Wirtz against Salzburg. After his treble against Heidenheim, he also scored against RB. Wirtz also scored four points in both games.
With two strong men on the wings, Jeremie Frimprong and Alejandro Grimaldo, Union’s defense will be put to the test. The capital side are unbeaten so far, having won three of their five games.
They have also only conceded three balls, which is only bettered by Bayern and Leipzig. However, Union have scored just six goals themselves, not a good figure. Almost a 1.50.
Ratings analysis
And Leverkusen have scored a whopping 26 goals in eleven games, the offensive form is right as the last results have shown, but Union are winless in four games.
Two three-pointers against Dortmund and Kiel were followed by a 1:1 draw against Frankfurt, 0:3 and 0:1 away from home against Bayern and Wolfsburg and a clean sheet against Sportclub from Freiburg.
In between, Union were eliminated in the DFB Cup against Bielefeld, conceding a 0:2 defeat, and have now not even scored a goal in four games. Against Leverkusen, I’m convinced that they will occasionally get counter-attacking opportunities against the high-flying visitors.
Ultimately, however, I expect 60 to 70 percent possession for the club that dethroned Bayern Munich in Germany. Four games without scoring and now the well-formed Leverkusen travel.
Parallel to my recommendation, I think the -1 handicap for the visitors is not bad, because we’re even talking about 3.00 odds!
Union Berlin vs Leverkusen odds: Bayer create many scoring chances
In terms of personnel, Union have significantly fewer injured players. In addition to Andrej Ilic, only reserve keeper Yannic Stein has to rest.
Four games without a goal and nine goals in total after eleven league games, only promoted St. Pauli were more harmless. Other statistics also show a night-and-day difference between Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
With 205 goals, Leverkusen have scored the most of any team after Bayern, while Union have scored around half as many.
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The truth behind the goals conceded
Leverkusen have scored three times as many goals overall, which is also reflected to a similar extent in the expected goals.
Although Werkself have conceded twice as many goals as Union, they have worked similarly well against Berlin. 12.8 to 12.4 goals conceded was to be expected between the teams.
Which shows that Union have got away with it so far and their opponents were very efficient against Leverkusen.
Since I expect Wirtz and Schick to score twice again, goalscorer bets are a good idea. Schick has a 2.45 and Wirtz a 3.10, either both could be played individually with the same stake, or the double chance variant from Winamax could be used.
With this variant (1.68 odds), the bet is won if one of the two players scores. If you like higher odds and believe that both players will score, you can also try the odds as a combination for a tasty 7.00.
At Winamax you can even start the bet as a new customer with free betting credit of up to 100 euros. They also accept deposits via PayPal.
Incidentally, Leverkusen won both games against Union last season, a 4:0 at home and a 1:0 at the Alte Försterei. The Berliners last won against Bayer in 2021, then 1-0 at home, their only victory in 13 duels.
My Union Berlin Leverkusen tip:
Union have been without a win and without a goal for four games, while Leverkusen have fired up the turbo after the international break, beating Heidenheim and Salzburg and doing so with a thinly-staffed offense.
However, they are likely to be dangerous again against Union. In general, Berlin, who are still unbeaten at home, have fared well so far. They now host the second-strongest attack in the league by numbers, which is in a peak of form.
The Werkeself are much more confident and I’m convinced that it won’t just be one goal again!
My Union Berlin Leverkusen prediction: Victory Leverkusen & Over 1.5 goals!
