Bundesliga matchday 12, Friday, 30.11.2024 at 15:30
After the bitter defeat against the black-and-yellow Borussia last week, in which Freiburg not only clearly lost, but also lost the now red-banned Osterhage due to repeated braces, the Breisgauers are under a bit of pressure.
Julian Schuster’s team must now prove themselves against Gladbach Borussia to avoid slipping into mid-table. But in my opinion, the Foals also have a good chance of beating Sport-Club on Saturday!
In my Freiburg Gladbach betting tip, I will discuss whether the hosts can recover despite the tricky starting position and which bets are most likely to be recommended by a betting provider with a German license.
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Especially in a duel like this, where both teams are always good for surprises, it makes sense to take advantage of the bookmakers’ best offers.
Especially as I have a promising Freiburg Gladbach betting tip for you that takes aim at a suspected misjudgement by the bookmakers.
Because I don’t understand why, with two such defensively strong teams, the expectation that plenty of goals will be scored is so high.
The bookmakers’ forecast?
The Freiburg Gladbach odds offer an interesting look at the slight favouritism of the home side. With odds averaging 1.95 for a three-goal win for the Sport-Club, the bookmakers see the hosts in pole position.
These odds, which almost every bookmaker with PayPal has called out in equal measure, reflect the relative certainty of the bookmakers’ guild regarding the outcome of the match.
In my opinion, however, it could still be an exciting encounter in which Gladbach also have a good chance of winning the treble …
KI prediction Freiburg vs Gladbach: ChatGPT
The Freiburg Gladbach AI prediction offers us some exciting suggestions that need to be examined!
The suggested high-risk bet on a 1:1 final score at great odds of around 7.70 is a pretty solid choice for me, albeit somewhat risky of course!
However, if you were to ask me in the middle of the night for a final score for this match, I would definitely call this result first.
Both teams are usually well organized, so an even game seems most likely to me in this case.
The second tip with medium risk – double chance 1/X and over 2.5 goals in the game – surprises me a bit. While the home side could of course score a goal, I have serious doubts as to whether more than 2.5 goals will actually be scored.
My gut feeling is that Sport-Club might get a point, but a high-scoring final score simply cannot be expected.
Under 3.5 goals in the game, on the other hand, the supposedly safe bet, convinces me very much. The odds may not be spectacular, but I expect a very high probability of success.
My guess is that we will see a very defensive-oriented game here.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Gladbach
It’s definitely a duel between two up-and-coming teams that could represent Germany on the international stage next season.
Both teams have proven to be extremely competitive this season, underlining their respective ambitions for European places.
The 4-0 defeat to Dortmund around a week ago does little to change the fact that the Black Forest side had been performing extremely well up to that point. After all, they had conceded as many goals against Borussia as in the five previous Bundesliga games put together!
The loss to BVB was undoubtedly a setback, but it shows that SCF have played a consistently strong season so far, even if they continue to struggle to finally bring down a top club.
Gladbach, on the other hand, passed the acid test against a Champions League contender in my eyes back in early November with a 0-0 draw against RB Leipzig. RBL achieved an XG value of just 0.53, which underlines the stability of Gladbach’s compactness.
The fact that FC St. Pauli were also unable to break down the Rhineland side’s defense after the international break (0:2) also speaks to Borussia’s immense quality and defensive orientation.
There is no question that everything points to few goals being scored in Breisgau on Saturday.
Ratings analysis
The bet on Kleindienst as the scorer of the 1:0 goal at odds of 7.80 is extremely attractive in my eyes from the point of view of a potential “value bet”.
Because the international has already scored in important moments many times in his short time at Borussia – and that could be the case again here!
The 1:1 at attractive odds of around 7.70 brought into play by ChatGPT in the “Freiburg Gladbach AI Prediction” already discussed also makes sense, I would like to emphasize that once again at this point. A draw after an early goal from Kleindienst seems quite realistic.
In addition, the attractive under-2.5-goal bet at odds of around 2.20 could also be interesting. There is simply a lot to be said for a rather low-scoring, even match.
Freiburg vs Gladbach odds: What a home record!
The following statistics clearly favor Sport-Club and may have influenced the bookmakers’ odds for the upcoming home match against Mönchengladbach more than I think is warranted.
After all, Freiburg have only lost one of their last 22 Bundesliga home games against the Foals (12 wins, 9 draws) – and that was back in 2002 with a 0:1 loss.
Since then, the Breisgauers have remained unbeaten in 16 home games against Gladbach (10 wins, 6 draws). This impressive record makes Freiburg a clear statistical favorite in this duel, and the oddsmakers reflect this dominance in their odds.
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Freiburg is weakened in terms of personnel!
Borussia Mönchengladbach’s strong defense could play a decisive role in this match, which suggests that we should probably not expect a high-scoring encounter.
The Foals have won each of the last two Bundesliga matchdays without conceding a goal and could well continue their streak on Saturday.
Watch out: With a total of four clean sheets this season, they have already notched up as many such victories as in the entire 2023/24 season.
They are particularly strong defensively away from home, having conceded just five goals in their first five away games, which is the best record in the Bundesliga, along with Mainz.
Freiburg’s line-up, meanwhile, will be weakened by the absences of Patrick Osterhage and Junior Adamu.
Osterhage, who has covered the most kilometers for Freiburg, and Adamu, who is ahead in duels and sprints, will be in the stands at best in this match, which will undoubtedly affect the Breisgauers’ momentum.
On the Gladbach side, Tim Kleindienst is in top form after scoring his seventh Bundesliga goal of the season in the last match.
With a total of 11 direct goals in the first 11 matchdays, he has set a record for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
He is the first Borussia newcomer to score so many goals in such a short space of time. Kleindienst is therefore not only the key player for the foals, but also a promising candidate for a goal bet in this match.
Even if Kleindienst actually scores the 1:0 for Gladbach on Saturday, I prefer to play it safe with the additional condition “Double chance X2” that I recommend.
SC Freiburg have already picked up six points from setbacks this season – only Werder Bremen (8) and Leverkusen (9) have more.
My Freiburg Gladbach tip:
It will be a very tough affair. I just don’t understand why the bookies are so confident that we’ll see a 2:1 or possibly even a 3:1 for the home side.
Freiburg are missing two important players and the Foals’ defensive bulwark has held up surprisingly well so far, especially away from home.
If even RB Leipzig have recently failed at home against this defense, then Freiburg’s strikers could well bite on granite.
My tip: Double chance X2 & under 3.5 goals
