Australian Open in Melbourne, 2nd round, Wednesday, January 15, 2025, 10:30 a.m.
Strong debut by Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open! He mastered the first round against a former top 10 player and Melbourne semi-finalist in three straight sets and without a tiebreak.
Germany’s tennis poster boy is now also the hot favorite in the second round. There he will face Pedro Martinez, whom he already outplayed last year on the sand of his home court in Hamburg. On hard courts, I see an even greater advantage for the world number 2.
Therefore, as my Zverev Martinez betting tip, I am going for a straight 3-0 win for Zverev and using the Bet365 bet configurator, I am adding the option that there will be no tiebreak.
It was already clear from the exhibition match against Novak Djokovic that the bicep problems in Zverev’s right arm are no longer an issue in Melbourne. A strain previously slowed him down in the United Cup.
The first round confirmed this impression. 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 was the final score against Pouille. The Frenchman did not manage to take a single game from Zverev. The 1.98-meter man once again shone with sensational serve rates.
73 percent, around three quarters of his first serves, found their way into the field. 50 of the 64 points were on his account and 15 out of 24 on the second serve. 18 aces were there at the end with two double faults.
As planned before the game, Zverev played aggressively for long spells to prevent his opponent from getting any chances at all. It was an all-round strong performance from the 27-year-old, but not a perfect one.
He took just three of 18 break points, and the 2021 Olympic champion will need to improve his efficiency in the later rounds. Ultimately, the number of opportunities shows how strongly Zverev also acts from defense on his return.
A whopping 42 percent of the points on Pouille’s serve were Zverev’s. He only lost a quarter of his own serves and only had to fight off two break points.
Zverev served and returned strongly and now awaits an opponent he dominated in the only duel they have had so far, and on his favorite surface. 6-2, 6-4 was the score in the semi-finals of Hamburg 2024. However, he failed to defend his title in the Hanseatic city due to a lack of break opportunities.
It looked better against Martinez, as he had eight and was able to convert three. Despite a strong first serve, Martinez had to give up every second point. I expect a similar match in the second round of the Australian Open – and so do the bookmakers.
Betano has given Zverev odds of 1.01, Martinez has 13.0. So we have to look for another market.
Will it be even clearer than in Hamburg? After all, Martinez feels much more comfortable on clay than on hard courts, where he has only won half of his matches in the course of his career. He even ended the last four seasons with negative records on hard courts.
I therefore played around with the Bet365 bet configurator. This makes it possible to combine several odds of a tennis match. In fact, only very few bookmakers offer this for tennis.
Even the straight 3-0 for the two-time semi-finalist in the tournament only gets odds of around 1.35 on the betting slip, but in combination with under 0.5 tiebreaks, it looks much more lucrative, giving us 1.67.
An even stronger quote against a man who has only won one of his last seven games. Because in round one he benefited from Luciano Darderi’s resignation. In three of the four tournaments before that, however, he failed in the first round.
My Zverev Martinez tip
Will there be another quick Zverev victory after the smooth 3-0 and 18 break points against Pouille? I assume so.
Martinez is significantly weaker on hard court than on clay, and in the only duel on ash just half a year ago, it was a clear Zverev affair.
The number two of the tournament should again hardly let anything burn on his own serve and take some points from the rather average serving Martinez.
In Hamburg, he gave up about every second point to Zverev after he had to swing. And in the first round, he benefited from Darderi’s injury-related withdrawal…
So my Martinez Zverev betting tip is: 3:0 Zverev & no tiebreak
