Bundesliga 17th matchday, Wednesday, 15/01/2025 at 20:30
The last matchday of the first half of the season will be brought to a close today as part of a midweek schedule. VfB Stuttgart will host RB Leipzig, with both teams returning from the winter break with a win.
The bookmakers see the hosts with returnee Deniz Undav slightly ahead, but the odds primarily suggest a close match. The national player scored directly on his comeback against Augsburg, scoring the decisive 1-0.
Now he is allowed to play at home again, and Leipzig’s Xavi Simons also made a good comeback against Werder after a long injury.
The offenses have been strengthened, which is one reason why I am betting on both teams scoring over 2.5 goals in combination in my VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig betting tip. Betano has strong odds ready.
It took him four minutes to score after coming on as a substitute. Undav is back and his goal secured the Swabians an important three points in the game in Augsburg. This means that Stuttgart remain close to the top of the table, have moved up to seventh place and are four points off the Champions League places.
The first home game of the new year will be a complicated task, with the Red Bulls putting in a strong performance against a strong Werder Bremen side, led by Simons, who scored twice in a 4-2 win.
After this performance, I’m not really going with the odds in the 1X2 market against Stuttgart…
The betting providers’ prediction
Stuttgart are leading with 2.00, Leipzig are at a good 3.55. I feel the gap is a bit too big and would have expected the hosts to be at 2.40. We get 3.70 odds for the draw. That’s decent!
Based on the distribution, I see value in the double chance X2 in my estimation. At 1.77, it turns out to be very lucrative. Does ChatGPT also have the bet on its radar?
AI-Prognose VfB Stuttgart – RB Leipzig: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Overall, we asked for three odds with three different risk levels and in fact the AI classified the X2 as a bet with only “low risk”, so it also sees value in this selection.
Like me, she sees this duel as a high-scoring affair, and has suggested the over 3.5 goals, for which we are already getting odds above the 2.00 mark, as a medium variant.
Given the offensive line-up, which is more prominent in both teams than the defense, I also agree with this assessment by the AI, although four expected goals is a bit too much for me.
It should be a little less for the third option, the “high risk tip”. Here, ChatGPT has the away win for Leipzig in its repertoire and adds the bet that both teams will score.
A good addition, after all, the odds jump from 3.50 to 4.50 and a clean sheet in the MHPArena would be quite a surprise. Definitely one of the better high odds I’ve gotten from the AI so far.
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs.
In my final selection, I decided against the double chance X2, but I have to admit that the decision was not easy for me. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals or the X2 – both at strong odds in my opinion.
But I generally find it difficult to bet against a home team that creates a good atmosphere and usually performs well in its own backyard. Stuttgart may only be in eighth place in the home table, but they have only lost twice so far.
Last season, they only lost one. So an away win is too risky for me anyway. And Leipzig on the road? They’ve won every second away game and drawn once.
They have lost in the biggest stadiums of Dortmund and Bayern, and once again in Hoffenheim. After the 4-2 win against Bremen, however, I don’t expect a fourth defeat.
Odds analysis
Against a defensively stabilized Werder, four goals were scored, and in terms of finishing, it was a very successful performance. Marco Rose’s team created a total of 18 chances.
And it didn’t look bad when they lost the ball either; I wouldn’t overstate the second goal conceded in injury time when Bremen were 4-1 up, and when they were 3-1 up Bremen couldn’t get a foot in the door with Castello Lukeba missing from the center of defense.
What also convinced me to place a goal bet instead of the X2 is the fact that Leipzig generally run out of options in the center.
Xaver Schlager and Assan Ouedragogo won’t be there on Wednesday; now Amadou Haidara’s yellow suspension is added to that. I don’t quite trust the construct.
However, we don’t even get 1.50 for over 2.5 goals at the over-goal odds. The goal in both halves is also only 1.47. The only thing that helps, therefore, is the combo with the goal of both teams, so as not to hope for four goals.
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: The better “Both teams score” bet
Using the betano bet builder, we can also build a variant in which we get decent odds even with only two goals. I would call this the better “Both teams score” bet.
In addition to the BTS odds, we add over 0.5 goals for each half. This gives us a strong 1.72. The official partner of last year’s home European Championship offers a wide range of options.
In addition, Betano offers you a fabulous sports betting bonus that includes a €20 free bet that you get before you make your first deposit.
How many minutes does Undav get?
The injury list at Stuttgart is getting thinner. Only Dan-Axel Zagadou is missing at the back. Up front, however, Hoeneß is spoiled for choice except for the absences of Justin Diehl and El Bilal Toure.
In addition to Ermedin Demirovic and Deniz Undav, Stuttgart have another strong center in Nick Woltemade, and we will probably see him again. An Undav appearance over 90 minutes is unlikely. Possibly he will initially only come off the bench again.
Even though there was a bitter 1-0 defeat to St. Pauli before the new year and only one goal was scored against Augsburg, I always have Stuttgart’s offense on my radar. We are still talking about a record of five VfB double strikes in the last seven matches.
I also find a goal scorer bet interesting for this game, but I would wait for the line-up regarding the Undav issue. For number 26, Bet365 offers odds of 2.10.
After scoring twice against Bremen, I am also tempted by the 4.75 odds for the Xavi-Simons goal, even though he primarily draws attention through his assists. To see all the odds, you can easily register with Bet365 in just a few steps.
Both teams scoring with over 2.5 goals would have been a good option in the previous duels. Last season, we saw two high-scoring home wins, followed by a 5-1 Leipzig win and a 5-2 Stuttgart win.
In the third-last duel, both sides were also able to celebrate, a 2-1 win for the red bulls, who have only lost once in twelve matches against VfB with a goal difference of 25-9 (9 wins).
My VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig Tip:
Stuttgart has only won once against Leipzig so far and RBL has made an impressive start to the new year with a 4-2 victory. Yes, the double chance X2 is smiling at me and the AI.
However, Lukeba, one of the most important defenders, is still missing, but he is far from being the only absentee in the center – and in the last away game, they were beaten 5-2 by VfB, who have more to offer offensively than Werder.
I therefore expect a very entertaining game on Wednesday evening, in which I see Leipzig as having a slight advantage, but ultimately expect fireworks in particular in terms of offense.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
