Ligue 1, Friday, 1/17/2025 at 9:05 pm
This weekend invites you to spend Friday evening on the couch with the top Ligue 1 game between Lille and Nice.
Both teams are pursuing different strategies, focusing on opposite ends of the field, yet have secured a place in the direct neighborhood.
Nice got off to a flying start in the 2025 calendar year with two wins from two league games, and the strikers have already had a field day. At LeoVegas, I expect “Nice over 1.5 goals” and hope for my Lille Nice tip for a 2.95-fold win.
Lille and Juve are a good match this year. Both teams rarely suffer defeats, but too often miss out on a win. The Mastiffs have not been beaten in 13 league games, but are not in the title race.
However, the best betting providers are so impressed by the Doggen that they are not quite approaching double the winnings for a “Lille victory”.
Somehow it doesn’t quite make sense to me. Sure, Lille have only lost one home game, but they have only won half of them (4/8).
Nice radiated so much joy in the 2025 calendar year against Rennes (3-2) and Reims (4-2) that my Interwetten freebet for the odds of 3.85 and a “Nice win” is gone.
What Franck Haise’s team has conjured up on the pitch in the first two league games this year is refreshing and increases the attractiveness of Ligue 1.
Seven goals in just two league games gave the fans a real boost and confirmed the good offensive performances of last year.
Les Aiglons have already hammered the ball into the opponent’s net 35 times this season (2nd) and in completely different ways.
You can watch the highlights from the 4-2 win against Reims. The first goal came from a corner, the second from a penalty. In the third, Sofiane Diop’s pass against the shifting movement disorganized an entire team’s defensive structure. Finally, the Haise players completed a counterattack.
Nice had the fourth-highest expected goal count in Ligue 1 (30.1 xG) and had a total of 90 shots on target (2nd). By comparison, Lille only had 72 (10th).
The visitors’ shot conversion rate is outstanding (almost 14 percent) and puts the rate of many other teams in the shade (4th).
Evann Guessende (8 goals) and Gaetan Laborde (6 goals) are responsible for completing the attacks. A certain Youssoufa Moukoko is also in the squad. Although he rarely gets to play, he has the second-highest xG per 90 minutes in the league (1.04) – proof of the good basic structure in the guests’ attack.
For weeks and months, Nice have not been stopped by any Ligue 1 defense. Les Gym scored “Over 1.5 goals” in seven of their eight previous league games.
Even Lille – Ligue 1’s second-best defense (16 goals conceded) – could not tame Nice in the first half of the season, settling for a 2-2 draw.
The hosts have not been beaten in 13 league games and have only lost a single encounter at home. However, wins have been too rare given the good conditions this season.
The new year began as the old one ended – with a draw. Lille have not won in six of their last eight Ligue 1 games (6 U).
This brings me to a odds boost, which is recommended for odds of 1.90 on a “double chance X2”.
The 1.70-fold win for “both teams to score” is also appealing, which has been the case in seven consecutive league games for the guests.
Form, enthusiasm and a good system – these factors are the basis for my Lille Nice tip, in which I fully rely on the guests’ offense.
Nice reached a whole new level during the two previous league games, but they also impressed last year, winning 8-0 against Saint-Etienne, among other things.
My Lille Nice betting tip is therefore: Nice over 1.5 goals
