Bundesliga 18th matchday, Saturday, 18/01/2025 at 3:30 pm
You have to position yourself in Baden-Württemberg: Do you have a heart for the Swabian or the Baden side! If I now turn to my VfB Stuttgart Freiburg tip in our 1st Bundesliga tips, there is only an either/or.
So I thought to myself: I’ll just abstain, let both teams sort it out on the pitch, where the better football is played, and simply say: neither will play to zero, at least I would be very surprised.
The guests were brought back down to earth with a bump last time out, and their current away performances are incredibly weak. On the other side, the runners-up are working on finally finding consistency again.
If our tax-free bookmakers have their way, the fans of VfB will be able to approach the game with optimism, as their club is clearly seen as being ahead – even though the most recent history actually speaks more in favor of Freiburg.
What is the story behind this, how important is the direct comparison for you at all, how do I rate both teams? I’ll tell you all of this in my betting tip, which of course aims to give you an understanding of the advantages of “both teams scoring”!
The betting providers’ prediction?
The fact that Stuttgart won their last home game 2-1 against RB Leipzig, despite being behind, seems to have impressed our bookies quite a bit. They are offering quite low odds, with Saturday’s win only being priced at 1.65.
For the guests, who don’t have to travel too far, we are talking about quite different values, here we are at an average of 4.50. To be honest, I’m not surprised, because anyone who loses four of their last six away games by a clear margin is obviously not in a good way!
For ten games, this duel has always found a winner, with VfB not sharing points at home since the beginning of October. The draw rate is therefore also higher than usual, estimated at 4.40.
KI prediction VfB Stuttgart vs Freiburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Of course, a derby is also a particularly exciting affair for ChatGPT. Logically, the AI has once again put a lot of effort into spitting out three interesting bets with different risks for me here.
As you know, an outcome bet is always a good choice for high risk. In this case, a 3:1 for VfB is suggested. Since the SCF has conceded at least three goals in four of its last six away games, I can definitely see that happening.
Should the Swabians win with goals on both sides, the odds are in the medium risk range and create a 2.80 at Bwin, for example. Since the hosts have only kept the home zero against Bochum, I see this as realistic.
Over 2.5 goals? That should be a given! Freiburg have scored 21 times in their last four appearances alone, and Stuttgart are not that safe defensively either. There is no question that there is a very good chance that there will be at least three goals.
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Freiburg
Europe should be the goal in the end, as the reigning vice-champion can certainly aspire to that! Admittedly, VfB Stuttgart still has a long way to go to return to the level of the magnificent 2023/24 season.
However, it now seems as if the Swabians are finally on the path to more consistency. They went into the winter break with a disappointing 0-1 loss to St. Pauli and only six wins from 15 rounds.
The start to 2025 was all the more pleasing. First, they beat Augsburg 1-0, then Stuttgart came from behind to beat Leipzig 2-1. So now they’ve won twice in a row, but could that be dangerous?
A little, because there have not yet been three wins in a row this season. And yet, the fact that four of the last five encounters have ended with three points is strong.
Odds Analysis
Seven goals in the first half, 14 in the second? SC Freiburg have only really got going after the break in their last four games. That’s why the “More goals in half two” bet could pay off for you, with Betano offering odds of 1.90.
Since the end of October, VfB has only led at half-time on one occasion, with Leipzig also taking an early 1-0 lead. So is the double chance X2 worthwhile after 45 minutes? After all, a 1.70 is still in it!
Accordingly, there must also be room for both teams to score in the second half. If Stuttgart and Freiburg hold back at first but then really turn on, that would mean odds of 2.67 for you.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Freiburg: Will the second half decide the game?
It’s easy to overlook the fact that defending still isn’t working so well. Only three clean sheets have been collected so far, with the only clean sheet at home being the 2-0 win over Bochum.
The 0-1 defeat to Pauli was a bit of an outlier, because with an average of 3.7 goals, games at the Neckar are anything but boring.
0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-1? What I have so neatly listed here are the half-time results from the MHP Arena. One thing is striking: in the first 45 minutes of FIVE home games, no goals were scored, and in the last six, only a single goal was scored!
Meanwhile, the new customer bonus from Betano is a bull’s eye. Click on the graphic, sign up and get a 20-euro free bet.
Freiburg in freefall on the road
Five goals in half time one, 15 in half time two, that’s a huge difference. If you want to bet at Interwetten that VfB will also remain scoreless in the first 45 minutes on Saturday, you get odds of 2.35.
Incidentally, it also pays to play through the freebet at Interwetten. While the Swabians are hoping for the return of Maximilian Mittelstädt, the fans are already dreaming of revenge.
In the first half of the season, they lost 1-3 in the derby despite taking an early lead, and they have lost six of the last eight direct duels. So on Saturday there will be a new chance, a 5-0 like in the last home game against Freiburg would be welcome!
At the beginning of October, there was a 1-0 win against Bremen, since then two tired points were achieved against the relegation candidates Hoffenheim and Union Berlin (0-0 and 1-1).
1:4 in Frankfurt, 1:5 against Leverkusen, 0:4 in Dortmund and 1:3 at RB Leipzig? All of these opponents were difficult to play against, but unfortunately VfB Stuttgart can be put in a similar category!
It concedes goal after goal, even though Freiburg was leading at half-time in Leipzig, it was 1-1 against Frankfurt and only one of the five goals conceded before half-time was scored in Leverkusen.
There’s no question about it, in recent weeks the team has fallen apart rather late. Three goals from the last five away games aren’t exactly sparkling either.
My VfB Stuttgart Freiburg betting tip:
It’s a derby, and as we all know, that always has its own laws. In Baden-Württemberg, the simple question is who will be ahead after this 18th matchday – in my opinion, the signs point clearly to VfB.
The Swabians have won four of their last five games, while SC Freiburg has become a very grateful opponent away from home. The Baden team is conceding goals left, right and center, and four goals is no longer a rarity.
In this respect, I have come to the conclusion, especially since VfB have only kept a clean sheet at home against Bochum, that only one real betting classic is suitable here. And that is:
Both teams to score!