Bundesliga 18. Matchday, Saturday, 18.01.2025 at 3:30 pm
If we were at the Australian Open, I wouldn’t say that the Kiezkicker missed a match point on the last day of the season in their fight to avoid relegation, but at least a set point. A win over the bottom-placed team would have felt like six points.
But now it’s time to look ahead: can they pull off a comeback against Heidenheim? But be careful, FCH are also under pressure and urgently need the three points to avoid slipping into the relegation zone themselves.
My Heidenheim St. Pauli betting tip is that almost all sports betting providers are barking up the wrong tree when it comes to Saturday.
The last time FCH and St. Pauli met, the FCH still had something to laugh about, but that was the exception rather than the rule. That was because the 2-0 win for St. Pauli on matchday 1 was just the end of a run of seven games without a win for the visitors against the Kiezkicker.
At home, FCH even lost the last three competitive games against St. Pauli – but four home defeats in a row against a single opponent have never happened before in professional football for the Red and Blues!
However, regardless of this statistic, in my Heidenheim St. Pauli betting tip, I assume that the northerners are closer to a three-pointer on Saturday in the Voith Arena than the guests from the far north.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The current Heidenheim St. Pauli odds reflect an exciting game. The bookmakers seem to be just as unsure about the outcome of this game as they are about which of the two teams will be relegated at the end of the season.
FCH are slight favorites with odds of 2.30 on average, while St. Pauli are given a respectable chance of 3.00.
Overall, it can be said that the host is slightly favored at home, but the neighborhood club is by no means without a chance.
KI prediction Heidenheim vs. St. Pauli: That’s what ChatGPT suggests
The Heidenheim St. Pauli AI prediction for this encounter presented to me by ChatGPT on request offers some interesting approaches. The high-risk tip “2:1 Heidenheim”, for example, is daring but well-founded.
Heidenheim could actually win with this result, and the potential payout is quite tempting with the associated odds of around 10.0, although this tip is probably only for the more daring sports betting fans among you.
The medium-risk tip “Over 2.5 goals in the game”, on the other hand, doesn’t exactly send me into ecstasy in relation to the odds. After all, this mark was not broken in any of the last four direct duels.
And then there’s this nice tendency for the guests: eight of the northerners’ last ten Bundesliga games have ended with fewer than 2.5 goals in total.
The low-risk tip “both score” is also weak, especially at odds of 1.65. After all, it remains questionable whether the Kiezverein, with its rather weak offense, can score a goal at all.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs St. Pauli
Heidenheim and St. Pauli started the 2024/25 Bundesliga season as relegation candidates and have so far lived up to these expectations. However, Heidenheim got off to a strong start in the new year, picking up something from the first two Bundesliga matchdays of the year.
Particularly impressive was the 3-3 draw against Bremen, despite Niklas Dorsch going off early. Heidenheim had also beaten Union Berlin 2-0 before that, ending a six-game run of poor home form (one draw, five defeats).
That will certainly give the team a big confidence boost ahead of Saturday’s game, especially with the 2-0 away win against St. Pauli at the start of the season in mind.
St. Pauli, 14th in the table, are ahead of Heidenheim due to their better goal difference, but have been struggling to score since the beginning of the year. Two 0-1 defeats to Frankfurt and Bochum made it clear that they have problems in their offense.
Incidentally, I was able to spoil you with two successful predictions last Bundesliga match day, which affected both teams equally.
Odds analysis
The bet on “Double Chance 1X” at around 1.40 seems quite solid to me and could even be an interesting option as a single bet.
In my opinion, 1. FC Heidenheim currently has a slight advantage when it comes to achieving a good result. In this scenario, I consider the probability of a home win or a draw to be quite high, which makes this offer all the more attractive.
Likewise, the odds of about 2.25 for “FCH over 1.5 goals” in the Betano app appeal to me, especially when you consider the first-leg duel.
Therefore, I think this tip is another interesting offer that has good betting potential.
Heidenheim vs. St. Pauli: Will the weak offense decide it?
St. Pauli has shown major weaknesses in offense this season. The Kiezkicker have scored only 12 goals so far and have been scoreless 10 times – a figure that represents the weakest offensive value in the league.
Even in the 1-0 defeat to Bochum, the team had an xG value of just 0.66. In the first few games of the new year, St. Pauli went without scoring, which further illustrates the difficulties in offense.
Therefore, a bet on “Over 2.5 goals” seems to be less promising in this game, as the Kiezkicker could once again go home empty-handed against FCH.
Heidenheim better in 2025
Heidenheim’s home advantage alone should not prove decisive in the game on Saturday. Only Heidenheim have picked up more points away from home (7) than FC St. Pauli (5) in the league this season.
Interestingly, FC St. Pauli has collected more points away from home than any other club in the Bundesliga this season (9 out of 14), with 64% of their points coming from opponents’ grounds.
However, in the next paragraph, I will present you with some good arguments as to why the Brenzstadters could still get the upper hand at the weekend.
Heidenheim has clearly deteriorated compared to the previous season, and there is no denying it. With only 14 points after the first half of the season, 1. FC Heidenheim is seven points behind the points tally of their first season in the Bundesliga (21 points).
For FC St. Pauli, however, it was the second-worst first half of the Bundesliga season with only 14 points, only their performance in 2001/02 was even weaker (8 points).
Despite this setback, there are signs that Heidenheim has worked harder on a sustainable improvement during the winter break, and the first results are quite promising.
In the first two Bundesliga games of 2024, Heidenheim already picked up four points – as many as they had managed in their previous 13 games combined!
However, if you only look at the last 12 matchdays, a different picture emerges: Heidenheim only picked up five points during this time, making them the weakest team during this period.
My Heidenheim St. Pauli betting tip:
Heidenheim has so far presented itself strongly in the first weeks of 2025 and is showing an impressive form curve. With solid performances and a stable defense, they continue to rise.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, are struggling with a weak offense, which is endangering their chances of avoiding relegation. If they are actually relegated at the end of the season, it will be mainly due to their lack of offense.
My Heidenheim St. Pauli prediction: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals.
