Bundesliga 18th matchday, Saturday, 18/01/2025 at 6:30 pm
After the latest demonstration of power by the record champions, it is of course difficult to believe in a close fight for the title.
But Leverkusen remains in a lurking position and could remain in the slipstream of Munich with a win over Gladbach, waiting for a better chance to overtake.
Meanwhile, the reigning German champions are doing everything right and winning game after game, if necessary with difficulty. But what counts in the end are the three points – and the Alonso team has scored quite a few of them recently!
In any case, I will try to redeem a great odds boost in combination with my Leverkusen Gladbach tip for Saturday. In it, I assume, by the way, that the “Werkself” will continue to keep the rear wheel of the Munich team.
Leverkusen can’t leave points behind and shouldn’t either – especially not because their favorite opponent is in town.
Because Gladbach has not won against Leverkusen in 10 Bundesliga games, longer than against any other club (2 draws, 8 defeats).
In the last home game a year ago, Bayer 04 even had 70 actions in the penalty area against their neighbors in the BayArena, which is a Bundesliga record since data collection began in the 2004/05 season.
Although I am, to a certain extent, siding with the hosts in my Leverkusen Gladbach betting tip on the 18th Bundesliga match day, there should still be no sign of a class difference.
The betting providers’ prediction?
Good sports betting providers are primarily characterized by the fact that they employ experts to help them determine the most realistic Leverkusen Gladbach odds possible, which accurately reflect the actual probabilities of occurrence.
However, despite my optimism, an average of only 1.23 for a win by the “Werkself” is just not high enough for me to want to place a home win bet. At least you can’t hope to wring “value” out of such an offer.
If you dare to do so and are confident enough, the Gladbach odds and draw odds are significantly more lucrative, with average values of 10.0 and 6.75 respectively.
KI prediction Leverkusen vs Gladbach: ChatGPT’s prediction
The Leverkusen Gladbach AI prediction from ChatGPT contains some interesting considerations.
The high-risk tip “3:1 Leverkusen”, for example, is an exciting suggestion based on gut feeling, even if it would be the first time since 1995 that B04 would win against Gladbach at home with this result.
Nevertheless, the tip with the right odds could be a worthwhile bet, especially considering Leverkusen’s strong form and Borussia’s recent defensive inconsistencies.
The second medium-risk tip, “Leverkusen win with HC -2”, seems less likely, since the chances of a comfortable win against Gladbach are rather slim. A close game, like the one in the first half of the season (3:2), seems much more realistic to me.
Finally, the supposedly safe bet “Both score” is a solid choice, given the fairly high probability of both sides scoring, especially thanks to the relatively high odds of around 1.75.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Gladbach
Bayer Leverkusen are in impressive form going into this Rhineland derby and, of course, want to keep up the pressure on league leaders Bayern Munich.
After a 1-0 win against Mainz, the “Werkself” celebrated their 10th consecutive competitive win.
What’s more, they have only conceded eight points in the Bundesliga since March 2023 at the BayArena, underlining their tremendous home form.
For Mönchengladbach, the start of 2025 was a bit of a bumpy ride. With only a one-point lead over the relegation zone at the end of the 2023/24 season, the team is currently in 11th place and thus has a good chance of qualifying for the European Cup.
However, after the brutal 5-1 defeat to Wolfsburg on Tuesday, in which four goals were scored in the last 30 minutes, coach Gerardo Seoane expressed dissatisfaction and even openly spoke of “mental weaknesses”.
To avoid a third consecutive defeat – something they have not done since December 2021 – Gladbach must therefore quickly get back into form.
Odds analysis
The bet “B04 to win & both teams to score” at odds of 2.37 is really a strong offer. Leverkusen didn’t impress against Mainz, but their offense is strong enough to cause an opponent to break down at any time.
The “Kleindienst scores” bet at odds of around 4.00, on the other hand, seems risky at first glance, but the chances of success really should not be underestimated.
Kleindienst has scored in each of his last two Bundesliga games against Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which puts him in a good position to score again.
The odds of 4.00 for the German national player, who will probably also travel to the 2026 World Cup, are therefore definitely worth considering.
Leverkusen vs. Gladbach: Borussia and Saturday evenings…
The season and match day are of course not insignificant for a data nerd like me.
Note: Borussia Mönchengladbach have not won any of their last 13 Bundesliga top games on Saturday eveningsince a 3-0 home win over RB Leipzig in September 2022 (5 draws, 8 defeats).
No other Bundesliga club is currently without a win in top games for so long. Bayer 04 Leverkusen, on the other hand, have only conceded a single defeat in their last 51 Bundesliga games on a Saturday evening – amazing!
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Uli Hoeneß had already declared the championship fight to be decided after the first half of the season. But Leverkusen is not much worse than in the previous season; rather, Bayern is simply much better this time.
Some data supports this thesis: with 38 points, Bayer 04 Leverkusen played its third-best Bundesliga first half of all time. The Werkself only scored as many points in their first 17 Bundesliga games in the seasons 2023/24 (45) and 2001/02 (39).
Leverkusen has also only scored more goals (41) after 17 games twice, including last season with 47 goals.
So if anyone is on the decline, it’s the away team. In 2025, Borussia lost both Bundesliga games, most recently 5-1 at Wolfsburg – the first time Gerardo Seoane’s side have conceded more than four goals.
Also interesting: Borussia’s last three-game losing streak at the start of a new year was in 2014, but that also included a loss to Leverkusen.
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Leverkusen – Gladbach tip
B04 is currently in top form and wins games in a row – not always with spectacular performances, but still confidently. Their offensive power and tactical discipline make them a serious opponent.
Gladbach’s defense will probably allow more against the “Werkself” than that of Mainz a few days ago, but should not be completely overrun.
The game promises to be exciting, with Leverkusen, who may have the upper hand, but will probably have to work hard for the win in the end.
My Leverkusen Gladbach prediction is therefore: Win B04 & Over 2.5 goals.