Europa League, group stage, Thursday, 23.01.2025 at 21:00
We are of course very familiar with the betting opportunities offered by the top sports betting providers and know how to find the best options. Often enough, we develop sophisticated betting strategies that combine several conditions.
But sometimes less is more. For my Royale Union SG Braga tip on the penultimate matchday of the Europa League league phase, I’m going for a simple bet this time. Incidentally, this simple strategy has already brought me luck at the last European Cup home game of the Belgians so far.
If there is a real “final” on the 7th matchday of the Europa League, then it is certainly this one between Royale Union SG and Braga. Both teams are currently in a difficult position, at the bottom of the promotion zone.
It will therefore be crucial for both teams to end this penultimate matchday with a win to keep their chances of progressing.
While Royale Union SG has stabilized in recent months and is showing an upward trend, their opponents are under pressure. Braga are currently in the first non-promotion place and now have what is likely to be their last realistic opportunity to score.
The Portuguese face current league leaders Lazio on the final matchday, which further reduces their chances of picking up important points. Especially since the “Biancocelesti” are still unbeaten.
Even a draw at the King Baudouin Stadium next Thursday might not be enough for them, while a defeat would have dramatic consequences and could seal an early exit in the league phase.
For Royale Union SG, on the other hand, the situation is somewhat better, but this matchday is also a “must-win” for them to stay in the race for the promotion places.
Plus for the home side: St. Gilloise is in much better form!
If you look at Royale Union SG’s recent form, you can see that they have recovered from the first setbacks of the season.
After a slow start to the season, the team under coach Sebastien Pocognoli has now overcome its problems and is becoming more and more stable.
There is no doubt that the Belgians have earned themselves a good reputation again. Since November 2023, they have only suffered a single defeat – and that was a painful 5-1 loss to Antwerp in the Belgian Cup.
That defeat to Antwerp shows that Royale Union SG still has room for improvement in the decisive moments, but in the European Cup, things are going much better than at the beginning.
In the Europa League group stage, St. Gilloise has so far played three consecutive home games against strong opponents such as Bodö/Glimt (0-0), Roma (1-1) and Nice (2-1) without suffering a defeat.
These performances, coupled with the generally good atmosphere in the team, make them a dangerous opponent for Braga, especially since they have not only held their own against the Portuguese in recent direct duels, but have even come out on top.
Watch out: In the past, Royale Union SG have achieved quite impressive results against Braga. They have remained unbeaten by Braga in both of their meetings so far in the 2022/2023 season – a 2-1 win in Braga and a thrilling 3-3 draw at their home stadium.
This record suggests that the Belgians have a clear advantage against Braga and, in their current form, may even be able to secure another victory.
In particular, Royale Union SG’s defense has gained stability in recent weeks, and with their robust play, they could make life difficult for the Portuguese.
In the usual 3-1-4-2 with Vanhoutte as an important link between defense and offense, I expect RUSG to have the greater share of the ball in terms of “possession” and “shots on goal”.
On the other side are Braga, whose current form leaves something to be desired and who will probably “only” finish fourth again in Portugal in 2024/25.
The “Arcebispos’” record against Belgian teams in the last seven meetings is particularly sobering: they have not won any of these games, but have drawn five times and lost twice.
These statistics show the difficulties Braga have faced when playing Belgian teams.
What makes the situation even more difficult for the Braguistas is the fact that they have never kept a clean sheet away from home in their last ten Europa League games.
They have even conceded three goals five times, which highlights the vulnerability of the Portuguese defense.
In a game as important as this, where every defensive mistake could be punished, Braga will be even more aware of their weaknesses.
While I remain neutral in my Royale Union SG Braga tip regarding the possible number of total goals, at least one thought could still arise in view of these numbers.
Which one? Over-2.5 goals at odds of around 1.80 in combination with the first-class Merkurs Bet Bonus.
To be honest, though, I would probably just go for the bookmaker’s bonus offer in this case, as I personally think a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts is most likely.
The facts speak for themselves: RUSG has stabilized and will want to get the upper hand in this home game.
In fact, I would go so far as to say that the Belgians should have an easier time against this opponent on Thursday than they did in their last European home game against OGC.
My prediction is therefore: St. Gilloise wins.
