Europa League, Thursday, 23.01.2025 at 18:45
Claudio Ranieri was signed by the Roma board during the season as an emergency solution to limit the damage, but the legendary master coach has since exceeded even my wildest expectations.
From a team that seemed broken inside, Ranieri has quickly formed a determined squad that now also wants to take flight forward in the Europa League league phase and attract attention again with successful football.
According to my Alkmaar AS Roma betting tip, there is certainly a good reason why almost all sports betting providers have assigned the role of favorites to the “Giallorossi” for Thursday. After all, the Romans have been in impressive form for weeks.
However, I have to warn Ranieri and you in my Alkmaar AS Roma betting tip. The Dutch are not to be trifled with.
AZ Alkmaar has always avoided defeat in all of its four previous European home games against Italian teams – with three wins and a draw. They have faced illustrious teams such as Inter, Udinese, Napoli and Lazio.
On top of that, Alkmaar simply cannot afford to lose on Thursday without also risking slipping out of the promotion zone.
The bookmakers’ forecast
Unfortunately, I was a little disappointed by the Alkmaar AS Roma odds, as they don’t really offer sports betting experts any scope for attack.
On average, 3.05 for a home win, 3.55 for a draw and 2.25 for the “Giallorossi” to win almost perfectly match the probabilities of the respective events.
The scope for value bets is therefore very small, at least in the context of a classic 1X2 bet, but more on that later!
KI prediction Alkmaar vs AS Roma: ChatGPT’s tip
According to ChatGPT’s AZ Alkmaar AS Roma AI prediction, there are several betting opportunities that could be attractive depending on your personal risk appetite.
For example, the risky bet “AZ win & both teams score” at odds of around 5.10 is one such offer.
My opinion on this? Before Ranieri’s arrival, this tip might have worked well, but now I see Roma as too stable and therefore no longer expect the Italians to lose to AZ.
I consider the tip with medium risk, “Under 2.5 goals”, at odds of 2.05 to be a more solid suggestion.
If you analyze the two teams, potential results below this mark are actually somewhat more likely than a possible goal festival at the AFAS Stadium.
ChatGPT’s supposedly safe bet, on the other hand, is “double chance 1X” and is betting on a win for AZ or a draw.
While the AI seems to have a high opinion of the Dutch, I would tend to place a counter-bet at this point, i.e. “double chance X2” for Roma at almost identical odds.
Analysis: Alkmaar vs AS Roma
While PSV are suddenly stumbling in Holland and Ajax are finally a contender for the title again, AZ, just behind them, are not performing as well.
Incidentally, during the last ten match days of the Eredivisie, they conceded the second-fewest goals (12) in the league after Ajax (10) during this period.
A small indication that after the goalless draw against Utrecht last weekend, I expect Thursday’s game against Roma to be another low-scoring European Cup evening for AZ.
Roma, on the other hand, have finally picked up speed under Claudio Ranieri for the first time this season.
Rome has not lost any of its last six competitive games and showed just how well the two strikers are now working together (3-1) at the weekend against Genoa.
Summer signing Artem Dovbyk has scored more goals in the short time under Ranieri at the club than in his entire time before. A change of coach can also end a goal drought, as we know!
After back-to-back goals against Bologna and Genoa, the Ukrainian is a hot candidate for me to start his longest goal streak in the capital so far, with a goal rate of 2.87 against Alkmaar.
Odds analysis
The 1:1 result bet at odds of 7.00 is really an attractive alternative to the classic 1X2 options, which – as already mentioned at the beginning – have no value bet potential.
As for the bet on “Dovbyk scores the first goal of the game” at odds of 7.20, this is a risky option, but potentially also a very lucrative one.
The Ukrainian seems to have changed under Ranieri and could be the player to score the first and possibly even the only goal in a rather low-scoring game.
The risk of this bet is of course higher, but the relatively high odds make up for this shortcoming.
These statistics alone could refute any argument in favor of the Italians, no matter how good.
Get this: Alkmaar have lost just two of their last 34 European home games, including in qualifying (22 wins, 10 draws). Both defeats came against English teams in 2023 – 1-2 to West Ham in May and 1-4 to Aston Villa in October.
It’s a shame that the Alkmaar odds don’t even come close to 4.50 in the most user-friendly sports betting app, because then a home win bet would almost be a must in my opinion.
It’s also a good idea to claim the new customer bonus from Betano. Click on the graphic, sign up and get a 20-euro freebet.
Roma are much better under Ranieri!
How good have Roma become under Ranieri? Take a look at this data!
Roma fired 34 shots, 17 of them on target, in a 3-0 win over Braga on matchday six – only three teams have ever had more shots on target in a UEFA Europa League game.
The 17 shots on target were only surpassed once, by RB Salzburg against Astra Giurgiu in December 2014 (19).
And Manu Koné? He created seven chances against Braga, a figure that has only been surpassed by three players in this Europa League season.
That’s why I remain adamant that the Italians just can’t go away empty-handed on Thursday.
On top of that, Roma usually do well in games against Dutch clubs.
After all, the Romans have only lost one of their last twelve duels against teams from the Netherlands (5 wins, 6 draws).
Curious when? The only defeat was in April 2023 with 0-1 against Feyenoord.
However, I still say it will be difficult for the capital city team to do against this disciplined Dutch backline as they did recently against Genoa in the Serie A.
AZ should not want to start this game with too much offense anyway.
A win would be preferable, but a draw would not be a disaster in terms of advancing either. Because on the last matchday, a much more feasible task awaits Alkmaar with Ferencvaros Budapest.
My Alkmaar AS Roma Tip:
An exciting duel is imminent when Alkmaar meet AS Roma. Both teams are roughly equal in strength, but Roma have stabilized significantly since their last change of coach.
The “Giallorossi” are showing a better basic order in building up play and are no longer as easy to beat as they were a few months ago. I therefore simply do not see the guests losing this game.
My Alkmaar AS Roma betting tip is “Double chance X2 & Under 3.5 goals”.
