Europa League, Thursday, 13/02/2025 at 9:00 pm
The fact that Porto have not won in their domestic league for five matchdays raises questions. They currently look anything but confident, and that could cause them to falter in the Europa League playoff first leg against Roma.
The Italians, on the other hand, are in good form and have rarely disappointed in recent years, especially on the international stage.
Will Porto have enough in the bag to hold their own against Roma? Or could the team from the bustling port city come under pressure and squander their chance of a good first-leg result?
My Porto Roma tip, meanwhile, promises good prospects of success – especially since the “Giallorossi” have looked much more stable since the arrival of coaching legend Ranieri.
So, while Porto may not be in the best of shape, they do have a record that could well worry the “Giallorossi” supporters.
That’s because FCP have won three of their previous six meetings (including qualifiers) against Roma. The last encounter was in March 2019, when the Portuguese won 3-1 in a Champions League knockout tie.
I will go into more detail on this aspect in my Porto AS Roma prediction! What’s more, the Interwetten Freebet gives you a very specific suggestion as to how you can pass on the betting risk to the bookmaker on Thursday!
The bookmakers’ prediction
It promises to be an exciting, finely balanced duel, and the current Porto AS Roma odds reflect that perfectly.
With 2.40 for the FCP, the hosts have only a slight advantage in the betting markets, while the guests are not far behind at 2.95.
The draw, on the other hand, with odds of 3.40, also indicates that it could be a real neck-and-neck race.
The favorites role for the Portuguese is there, but it is so weak that you could almost measure it with a spirit level.
The Porto vs. AS Roma AI prediction that ChatGPT kindly presented to me at the push of a button recently offers various betting options, all of which convinced me.
For the high risk, for example, the AI suggests a 1-1 bet at odds of 6.00. Although this precise tip initially seems very risky, it could actually prove to be realistic.
I too am hesitating between a draw of this kind and a narrow 2-1 victory for Roma as the most likely final results.
At medium risk, the AI recommends “Roma scores the 1st goal” at 2.10. This tip seems very solid to me, especially since FC Porto has conceded the first goal in each of its last three home games.
Finally, for the low risk, “Roma advances” is proposed at 1.65. This tip also seems reasonable to me, especially if the Portuguese should not be victorious in the first leg.
Analysis: Porto vs AS Roma
The situation in the port city is getting expensive! After the 1-1 draw against Sporting at the weekend, Porto must bid farewell to the championship.
Only four clubs across the league have collected fewer points than FC Porto in the last five match days.
And do you remember their last appearance in the Europa League? Porto had to win at all costs to avoid being knocked out in the league phase.
They did eventually manage to do so, but their unflattering 1-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv, with a weak xG value of just 0.78, left a lot to be desired.
Roma, on the other hand, continue to rack up one good result after another.
Yes, after losing 3-1 to Milan in the Coppa Italia, Claudio Ranieri’s chances of winning a possible final title are significantly reduced, but in Serie A, they are finally aiming for a European Cup spot again.
The 1-0 win over Venezia at the weekend is the latest example of how the “Giallorossi” are now able to win even the most difficult of games.
Odds Analysis
1:1 or 1:2, that is the question! As already mentioned, I am torn between these two results, which is why I ultimately opt for an attractive offer that you can take advantage of yourself at any verified German betting provider at any time.
The modular selection “Double chance X2 & Both teams to score” covers both scenarios and, in my opinion, has been very generously priced at odds of around 2.55.
Porto vs. AS Roma odds: The Porto curse, it exists!
It is truly fascinating how Roma seem to be cursed. FC Porto have reached the next round in all three previous meetings with Roma in European competitions!
Be it in the round of 16 of the Cup Winners’ Cup 1981/82, the qualifying play-offs for the UEFA Champions League 2016/17 or the round of 16 of the Champions League 2018/19.
The Portuguese club really seems to be a kind of “final opponent” for Roma!
Porto must try everything in the first leg, otherwise…
Claudio Ranieri is like King Midas, everything he touches seems to turn to gold – and he has also worked true wonders in the Eternal City since his return. But is he really King Midas?
If you look at Ranieri’s record in European knockout games, it’s clear that he’s only won one of the last 11 first or second legs, which is a rather disappointing overall return.
This makes me wonder if ChatGPT might not be right after all with the assumption of a 1-1 draw expressed in its Porto AS Roma AI prediction.
This is an extremely exciting contrast! Porto have only won five of their last 25 European knockout games, but at least four of them at home. This shows how difficult it is for them to win away from home.
By comparison, Roma have only won three of their last 19 UEFA Europa League away games – and one of those was against Milan. They have won their other 14 games in the competition in Italy.
The Portuguese would therefore be well advised to make use of their home advantage and go on the offensive on Thursday.
Because if they don’t get a win or even a draw, it will be almost impossible to successfully turn around a possible deficit in a little over a week when they are guests at the Olimpico.
That’s why, when it comes to my expectations, I tend to favor an open exchange that could result in at least 3 goals. Why not!
Porto – AS Roma tip
Porto is currently in a serious crisis – the team has simply not managed to shine in the important games and is struggling even against mediocre teams.
However, the “Dragons” will have to give their all against AS Roma. A win is almost a must to ensure a good starting position for the second leg in the Eternal City.
It will be a hard-fought game in which Porto will have to give their all to beat the Italians. However, I doubt that they will be victorious in the end.
My Porto AS Roma prediction: Double chance X2 & Both teams to score.
