Bayern – VfB Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 1 on Friday, 28.08.2026 at 20:30 CET
Will it be the Swabians’ turn after BVB? Will the league leaders once again show their rivals where the hammer hangs in the Bundesliga opener as early as possible?
My Bayern VfB Stuttgart tip is undoubtedly concerned with a duel that can already prove to be a second fortune teller for the new season after the Munich team’s Supercup victory.
On the occasion of the start of the Bundesliga, I decided to use a free bet that targets the figurehead of the guests. The selection Undav meets is definitely worth considering at a generous odds of 2.87.
The German international was the outstanding man at VfB in the previous season. With 19 goals and a total of 25 scorer points, he was not only the top scorer, but also the linchpin. He also started the new season strongly with two assists in the cup match against Rostock.
After all, FCB is notorious for its opening games, which are as goal-scoring as they are successful, but this demanding task is probably not without damage.
Increased Bayern Stuttgart odds for the Bundesliga opener
With odds boosts for Bayern vs. Stuttgart, many bookmakers are once again courageously turning the odds screw on selected bets for the opening game of the new Bundesliga season.
The offers offered here are particularly interesting for Bayern bettors. Due to the German record champions’ clear position as favourites, some regular FCB odds are a bit meagre at first …
On Friday evening, the ball will roll in the Allianz Arena from 20:30 CET. After the 2-1 win against Dortmund, FC Bayern want to go one better in the home game against VfB and successfully start the mission of “defending the title” with another befitting victory.
The focus is also on Nathaniel Brown. He should prove that the Munich team have a convincing alternative for the injured Jamal Musiala in the squad with him. His recent achievements give courage for the tasks ahead.
By the way: The 3-0 defeat in the DFB Cup final a few months ago should still haunt the Swabians’ minds. Nevertheless, in my Bayern VfB Stuttgart prediction, I rather assume that the guests will use this as an opportunity to get even more involved!
Bayern – VfB Stuttgart Prediction & Betting
Exciting alternatives for a Bayern VfB Stuttgart tip are provided by the market for goal betting. The Munich team were a force at home and scored in both halves in 15 of last season’s 17 home games. The bet Bayern to win & score in both halves is therefore a proven option.
In view of the offensive power of both teams, however, I also take a closer look at the Asian goal line of the bookmakers. The matching line for the Asian Over 4.0 goals at odds of 1.86 is therefore definitely worth considering.
The pure Bayern VfB Stuttgart odds on a home win, on the other hand, are set far too low at around 1.28. Real ‘value’ could therefore be buried in a very specific special bet, such as the one below.
What you need to know about Bayern vs. VfB Stuttgart betting
- Harry Kane scored four goals in two competitive games against VfB in 2026.
- Bayern have not kept a clean sheet against any professional club at test and competitive level in the new season.
- Stuttgart’s offense scores an average of 4.14 goals per game in the new season.
- Since the start of the 2025/26 season, Bayern have only suffered one competitive home defeat.
Bayern – VfB Stuttgart: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our in-house football prediction tool analysed the game and formed a clear opinion. The predicted probability of winning for FC Bayern is an impressive 74.0%. A draw is valued at 14.1%, a VfB victory at only 11.9%.
Particularly interesting is the expectation in terms of goals. The AI predicts a total of 3.93 goals for the game. This is the highest xG value of the entire matchday. Munich’s offensive attempts are said to be good for 2.84 goals, while VfB have the remaining 1.09 xG.
This high goal prediction supports my consideration regarding goal betting. If this offensive expectation is confirmed, markets such as Over 3.5 goals or the aforementioned Asian goal line do indeed offer a good alternative to the classic win bet.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Bavaria |
Draw |
Victory VfB Stuttgart |
| 74% |
14% |
12% |
If we look at the Bayern VfB Stuttgart betting odds of the bookmakers, we see parallels to the opinion of our AI. An odd of around 1.29 for a home win is extremely low and hardly profitable for a single bet. However, it confirms the champions’ clear role as favourites.
That’s why player bets are coming into focus. Harry Kane worked his magic in the cup final against VfB. But the artificial intelligence is a bit more reserved than me and recommends Kane over 1.5 goals at odds around 2.50.
In summary, it can be said that a victory for Bayern is the most likely scenario. However, you will find real “value” for your bets in the goal or player markets, where the odds for this opening game are much more attractive than in the classic 1X2 market.
The best odds for Bayern vs. VfB Stuttgart
The odds for the South Derby speak for themselves. A home win for FC Bayern is considered very likely by the bookmakers, which is reflected in odds around 1.28. This is no surprise given Munich’s home strength.
A draw, on the other hand, would very well be a big surprise. However, the probability of this is estimated to be extremely low.
Data further substantiates the bookmaker’s opinion: In the whole of last season, Bayern only drew twice at home.
A Bundesliga away win for VfB Stuttgart, only the second in Munich since the turn of the millennium, would undoubtedly be a sensation.
Although the Swabians are in good form, success at the Allianz Arena seems to be an insurmountable challenge. The bookmakers set the odds for this event at very high values around 8.50.
Ultimately, the distribution of quotas confirms expectations. Anything other than a victory for Bayern would be a big surprise. For your bet slips, this means that you should focus more on handicap wins or goal bets to find playable odds.
Bayern vs VfB Stuttgart Match Analysis:
FC Bayern will be looking to build on last season’s impressive attacking performance against VfB. At that time, the team scored an average of 4.00 goals per Bundesliga home game. The largely well-rehearsed offense should strive for this value again.
Stuttgart will undoubtedly try to set some accents themselves. However, VfB have often had a hard time against top teams recently. The Swabians have only won one of the last five league games against an opponent from the top 8 of the previous season.
Nevertheless, the Munich team must be warned of VfB’s quick counter-attacks. Especially after losing the ball, the Swabians could pose considerable problems for the record champions’ high-standing defensive line with their dynamism.
Offensively, a lot will depend on Harry Kane again. In the cup final, he was involved in almost every dangerous action. Of Bayern’s 2.35 expected goals (xG), 1.53 xG alone were due to individual actions by the English top striker.
By the way: If FCB are already leading at half-time, it would be a big step towards victory. Last season, the Munich team was by far the strongest team in the league after the break, scoring 22 more goals than in the first 45 minutes.
Overall, I trust Stuttgart to set pinpricks and maybe even score one or two goals. Over the full distance, however, FC Bayern has the much greater opportunities to increase the tempo and clearly win the game.
Bayern Form Check
Bayern go into the Bundesliga opener with a large portion of self-confidence. The 2-1 win in the Supercup against Borussia Dortmund showed that the attack works well even without the injured Jamal Musiala.
In addition, the venue clearly speaks for the German record champions. At the Allianz Arena, the double winners of the 2025/26 season conceded only one defeat across all competitions. VfB is therefore facing a truly mammoth task.
Nathaniel Brown could once again play a key role in this. The 23-year-old is expected to provide creative moments behind Kane. His current form is promising: In the last two tests and also against Dortmund, he was able to enter his name on the scoresheet.
It can be assumed that coach Vincent Kompany will rely on the same starting eleven as in the Supercup. Coordination problems at the start of the season are therefore not to be expected, as the processes should already be consolidated.
However, there is a small question mark behind the defence. The Munich team have not kept a clean sheet in a game against a professional club since the World Cup.
This defensive vulnerability could take revenge against VfB. With 71 goals, the Swabians had the second-best offense of the past Bundesliga season. Bayern will therefore be challenged not to make easy mistakes defensively.
VfB Stuttgart Form Check
VfB Stuttgart travel to Munich with a lot of confidence after the sovereign cup success against Rostock. The form curve is right, because already in the pre-season with victories against Offenbach (8-1) and Everton (3-1) clear exclamation marks were achieved.
In addition, Deniz Undav, an absolute top performer, could be retained, which underlines the ambitions of the club. The triple burden will be a challenge in the future, but the team should still be full of energy at the start of the season.
The focus is particularly on new signing Dzenan Pejcinovic. The striker got off to a dream start with a hat-trick on his debut. He has proven directly that he can be a real asset to VfB’s already strong attack.
Compared to the cup game, however, coach Sebastian Hoeneß will probably change his starting eleven in some positions. Bilal El Khannouss is likely to replace Chris Führich in the team. A change is also expected on the right side of defence.
This would mean that the right side would be completely reoccupied compared to the Rostock game. Despite these changes, I expect VfB to play with a lot of momentum and try to put Bayern under pressure early on with courageous attacking football.
Despite the long injury list, VfB have enough alternatives to put a competitive team on the pitch in Munich. They will try everything to give the big favorite a leg up and cause a surprise.
