VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 4 on Saturday, 19.09.2026 at 18:30 CET
I have analysed the Bundesliga top match of the 4th matchday and now present my favourite VfB Stuttgart Dortmund tip. The game promises to be highly exciting, as BVB want to extend their perfect series, while the Swabians are a force at home.
My main focus is on a high-scoring game. I bet on Over 3.5 goals in the game, for which Winamax offers a strong odd of 1.94. The Bundesliga is known for its many goals, and this duel has all the ingredients for that.
Stuttgart’s games are the highest-scoring in the league, with an average of 4.67 goals. The Swabians allow a lot defensively, but are extremely dangerous offensively. Dortmund’s attack is also in top form, which is another strong argument for spectacle in the MHPArena!
For Dortmund, it’s all about going into the upcoming international break with an unblemished record of twelve points from four games. A win would consolidate the dream start and keep the pressure on Bayern high.
VfB, on the other hand, is already under slight pressure in my Stuttgart BVB tip. With only three points, the Swabians are currently only in 14th place. But as a reminder: Last season they also started poorly and ended up in a Champions League place.
The duel between experienced coaches Sebastian Hoeneß and Niko Kovac is also interesting. In addition, BVB won in Stuttgart last season, ending a long winless streak at the MHP Arena. This promises additional spice.
VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund Prediction & Betting
In addition to the above goal bet, I also see potential in other markets. My VfB Stuttgart Dortmund prediction leans slightly towards the visitors. Dortmund are extremely stable under Niko Kovac and have won all of their last five competitive games.
The Stuttgart BVB odds for an away win of around 2.75 are very tempting, especially in view of Stuttgart’s defensive problems. VfB have conceded the highest number of expected goals (xGA) in the entire league this season.
What you need to know about VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund betting
- In Stuttgart’s first two competitive home games, 9 goals have already been scored.
- 11 of BVB’s last 12 away goals have come after the break.
- In the previous season, both teams scored more goals in the 2nd half.
- The duo Guirassy/Silva has already scored 7 goals in all competitions.
VfB Stuttgart – Dortmund: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
I also consulted our AI tool for my analysis. The artificial intelligence sees the hosts at a slight advantage with a probability of winning of 42%. Dortmund has 36.1%, while a draw is 21.9%.
The predicted number of goals is particularly exciting. The tool calculates a total value of 3.44 goals for the game. This value is therefore only just below the mark of 3.5 goals and thus supports my main bet on a high-scoring game.
Broken down between both teams, this is 1.78 for Stuttgart and 1.66 for Dortmund. This strongly suggests that both teams will score, which the low VfB Stuttgart Dortmund odds for this market already indirectly convey.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory VfB Stuttgart |
Draw |
Victory Dortmund |
| 42% |
21.9% |
36.1% |
The sports betting providers also see a clear tendency towards goals. For at least three goals in the course of the game, often only odds of 1.40 are offered. This shows that the experts are firmly expecting an entertaining evening game.
There are also clear favourites among the potential goalscorers. On the Dortmund side, these are Serhou Guirassy and Fabio Silva, who are already convincing as a duo. At VfB, all eyes are on Deniz Undav and Jovan Pejcinovic.
A very interesting market is betting on the second half. Statistics from both teams suggest that more goals could be scored after the break. The odds for this are often attractive and thus offer an exciting alternative for your betting slip.
The best odds for VfB Stuttgart vs. Dortmund
Dortmund’s perfect season record, however, makes the odds of around 2.80 for an away win extremely attractive. In view of BVB’s form, I definitely see value here, which you can use yourself for your VfB Stuttgart Dortmund bets.
The draw is valued at odds above 3.50 and cannot be ruled out given the quality of both teams. However, the offensive orientation of both teams speaks more for a clear winner than for a share of points.
Ultimately, the distribution of odds confirms the impression of an open game. While the bookmakers give greater weight to the home advantage, the current performance data and efficiency speak more in favor of the guests from Dortmund.
VfB Stuttgart vs Dortmund Match Analysis:
The starting position could hardly be more different. Borussia Dortmund travel with an unblemished record: wins in the league, the cup and the Champions League. Niko Kovac’s team is brimming with self-confidence.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, has had a rather mixed start to the season with only three points from three games and is in 14th place. However, home strength is a decisive factor that gives VfB hope.
In the current calendar year, VfB have lost only one game at home – against Borussia Dortmund of all places. Nevertheless, the MHP Arena is a fortress in which the Swabians regularly surpass themselves.
Tactically, I expect a Stuttgart team that is out for possession and control. BVB will probably want to concentrate on a stable defence and achieve success through quick transition moments.
The Dortmund strike duo of Guirassy and Silva in particular could make the difference. Their efficiency and teamwork are currently one of the biggest weapons in the Black and Yellows’ squad.
With a lot at stake for both teams before the international break, the first half could be tactical. It is quite possible that both teams will neutralize each other at first and the spectacle will only begin after the change of ends.
VfB Stuttgart Form Check
VfB Stuttgart has so far fallen short of high expectations. Just one win from the first three league games is not enough for the club’s ambitions. Above all, the defense does not yet look solid.
Even in the 3-1 win against FC Cologne, the team had to survive a tricky period of pressure in which the defence looked anything but confident. Coach Sebastian Hoeneß urgently needs to work on that.
However, the problem is not in the general idea of the game, but in the implementation. Some key players such as Deniz Undav are still lagging behind their form, and there have also been important absences such as that of Angelo Stiller.
Nevertheless, home strength remains a decisive factor. In 2026, there was only one defeat in the home arena. The fans behind them could give the team the necessary boost for a surprise.
It is statistically striking that VfB have conceded at least two goals in each of the league games so far. This underlines the defensive vulnerability that Dortmund could exploit with its offensive power.
At the same time, the offense is extremely dangerous. Stuttgart have scored at least three goals in four of their five competitive games so far. This discrepancy between attack and defence is what makes VfB’s games so unpredictable.
Dortmund Form Check
BVB have made an almost perfect start to the season. After three matchdays, they have nine points and a goal difference of 8:2. This means that the team is fully on course and currently occupies second place in the table.
The offensive efficiency is particularly impressive. Dortmund scores a lot of goals and has always been better than their opponents in terms of expected goals (xG) in the league games so far. This testifies to clear superiority.
A decisive factor is the quality of the bench. In the previous competitive games, substitutes have already been directly involved in a goal six times. This depth in the squad makes BVB extremely dangerous.
With Serhou Guirassy and Fabio Silva, a new dream duo has also been found in attack. Both together have already been responsible for seven competitive goals and harmonize better with each other from game to game.
Guirassy is the central anchor in attack. Across all competitions, the striker already has four goals and two assists. His ability to score and assist goals is invaluable to the team.
The comeback of defensive boss Nico Schlotterbeck gives the defence additional stability. With him on the pitch, BVB have already kept two clean sheets this season. Dortmund travel to Stuttgart in top form.
