AC Milan – AS Roma betting tip
One thing is already clear before the quarter-finals of the Europa League: A Serie A club will get it. If my AC Milan AS Roma prediction is anything to go by, it will be the Romans.
Because there are a few things that speak in favor of my targeted bet on a Milan home win with goals from both teams.
I’ll tell you what exactly later on, but here’s just this much: The bet on Milan to win and both teams to score has odds of a remarkable 4.20.
at Betway.
Our bookmakers with the best sports betting apps prove me right, especially with the first part.
However, when it comes to the Giallorossi’s ability to score a goal at San Siro, the bookies see it a little differently. After all, Roma have failed to score in two of their last four games.
Current form clearly favors the hosts on Thursday (21:00), who have won all of their last seven competitive games
The bookmakers’ forecast
For our top bookmakers, there is little doubt. Anything other than a Milan victory, which is quoted well below the 2.00 mark, would be a big surprise.
However, those of you who want to bet against the trend or the bookies’ predictions can secure a tidy sum. A draw, for example, brings betting odds of 3.60 at Interwetten in addition to the possibility of receiving an 11 euro IW voucher.
Even more lucrative would be a surprise win for the Giallorossi, which could bring up to 4.5 times your stake into your betting account. The problem: this bet is associated with a correspondingly high risk.
Analysis: AC Milan vs AS Roma
One of the main reasons why the bookmakers have the hosts so clearly in the role of favorites is the direct comparison.
The Rossoneri are unbeaten in the head-2-head against the Romans in no less than nine competitive matches (all in Serie A).
Six wins and three draws since Roma’s last win, a 2:1 victory on October 27, 2019
If I only take the figures from the Europa League, which Milan had to switch to after the CL group stage, then I also see advantages for Stefano Pioli’s team.
Milan have produced one spectacle after another in their four EL games so far. Twelve goals scored, an average of three per game, compared to six goals conceded (1.5/game).
Roma have been involved in Europe’s second most important club competition from the outset and have scored 1.8 goals per game. Defensively, things have gone very well for Daniele de Rossi’s side, conceding an average of 0.7 goals
Quota analysis
After I explained the average goal values of Milan and Roma, you may be surprised that our bookmakers, such as Intertops Sportwetten, are not exactly expecting a goal festival.
An over 2.5 goals bet with this bookie brings betting odds of over 2.00, while under 2.5 goals in the match has a value of around 1.70.
A closer look at the goal bets shows that the burden of scoring goals lies mainly on the shoulders of the hosts. At least one goal from the Rossoneri will fetch a measly 1.15, and if the visitors manage at least one goal, the odds are a tight 1.50.
For the “Both teams to score” market, this means the following: A bet on “Both score: No” brings you almost 1.80 times your stake, if both teams score, odds of around 1.90 come into play.
The prediction that Roma will struggle to score is somewhat incomprehensible in my view, as the Giallorossi have only failed to score in two out of ten games in the EL season so far.
On the other hand, I can very well live with the role of the Milanese as favorites proclaimed by the betting providers, the odds of approx. 1.80 to 4.40 are quite understandable for me.
Will Milan win the Europa League as consolation?
The European Cup season has been bitter for AC Milan so far. First of all, the draw for the Champions League group stage with Paris St. Germain, Borussia Dortmund and Newcastle as opponents was anything but kind.
In the end, the Rossoneri were only beaten by PSG in the battle for the second promotion place due to their inferior goal difference in the direct duel.
In the Europa League, Pioli’s squad mastered the tasks of Stade Rennes and Slavia Prague with aplomb and were particularly impressive offensively
Following their elimination from the top flight, the Rossoneri now have their sights set on the EL, although the competition for the title is particularly tough, especially with Liverpool FC and Leverkusen.
However, Milan have nothing to hide. In their 19 competitive matches in 2024, they only lost three and drew two. The remaining 14 games were all won, including the last seven in a row.
If I then look at the run of success against AS Roma (nine games unbeaten), I am convinced that the hosts will also prevail on Thursday
Will AS Roma end their drought against Milan?
The season has been turbulent for AS Roma. Jose Mourinho was sacked and the decision to bring in the Serie A inexperienced Daniele de Rossi proved to be the right one.
26 points from the first eleven games and a place in the quarter-finals of the Europa League. The result is more than respectable, especially as the Romans are fighting for a place in the next Champions League.
As a further boost to Roma’s confidence, they finally managed a derby win against Lazio Roma (1:0) on Saturday after four recent winless attempts.
The even longer dry spell is now set to end on Thursday. For the first time since October 2019, the Giallorossi want to finally get a win against AC Milan.
Even if things are going much better under de Rossi than in the last few weeks of the Mourinho era, the Rossoneri are an even tougher opponent than their city rivals.
However, I think the Romans can easily score a goal against Milan. After all, although the Giallorossi have not won against Milan in nine matches, they have always scored at least one goal in their last eight games
My Milan Roma tip:
I’m also targeting this statistic in my Milan Roma prediction. There is no doubt in my mind that the hosts are the favorites due to their current top form.
I could therefore also be satisfied with a classic Milan win bet and odds of around 1.80.
However, since I believe the Giallorossi are much more likely to score than the bookmakers, not least because of the results in the direct comparison, I see value in the following AC Milan AS Roma betting tip due to the odds of 4.20:
Milan win and both teams score
