Premier League, Friday, 21/02/2025 at 9:00 PM
There is only one way to go: down! For the club returning to the Premier League, the relegation battle was inevitable, but it was not necessarily to be expected that things would go so badly.
It is therefore not a pleasant task for me to explain my Leicester Brentford tip to the Foxes fans…
Their team is collecting defeats like other teams collect stamps, and on Friday they face a team that has suddenly started to play well away from home.
In my analysis, I will now tell you why I am betting on a maximum of three goals here – and what a strange change the guests have made!
Leicester can’t expect more than that, because there is already a ten-point gap between them and 16th place. It’s a gap that the team has brought on itself, of course, having lost nine of the last ten games!
It seems almost optimistic for the best betting providers to give the Foxes odds of 3.40 on Friday, while the guests have odds of 2.05. Bet365 also offers odds at comparable levels.
Speaking of Bet365, just two days after the clash between Leicester and Brentford, there will be an election in Germany! If you want to follow all the important information about the federal election, including odds, the betting fans are once again the right place for you.
Leicester recently lost 2-0 to Arsenal, meaning that eight of the nine defeats mentioned had at least two goals behind them. Furthermore, seven of the results did not even offer a goal of their own.
In view of the number of points scored and conceded, it really doesn’t matter whether we let the Foxes play at home or away. But: they concede even more goals away from home, “only” 23 at home and 32 away.
A look at their last home games is very interesting. 0-2 against Arsenal, 0-2 against Fulham, 0-2 against Crystal Palace, 0-2 against Manchester City (before that a 0-3 against Wolverhampton)? There is a new favorite result!
So if you want to place this result bet in the Bet365 app, you will get a great odds of 13.0 for a 0-2. The value drops a little if you say: Brentford win to nil, as the five previous clubs to visit Leicester did.
Now we are “only” at odds of 4.33. The Foxes last scored a goal at home in early December, and in general, I notice that they have only scored seven times before half-time in the entire season.
After the half-time break, there are at least 18 goals. After the 1-4 defeat to Brentford in the first leg, things can only get better on Friday. Back then, the Bees blew a 1-0 lead before half-time to trail 1-3.
Kevin Schade was the man of the match that day, scoring three times and setting up once. It was fittingly Schade who wrapped up the 1-0 win for his Bees against West Ham a few days ago.
It’s strange how Brentford has changed in recent months. We actually know the Bees as a team that is strong at home and has got off to a brutal start with seven wins and a draw.
Away from home, however, there were two measly points in 2024 (based on the current season)! But as soon as we turned the page on the calendar, the tide turned – and suddenly Brentford are turning it on away from home, while at home they are no longer scoring.
The team has not lost in four away games, winning the last three and conceding only one goal in those four games. At home, on the other hand, there has only been one point from five matches..
How far can it still go for Leicester City? Only one team is still below the Foxes, but one defeat is really coming after another. Especially offensively, nothing is working anymore; at home, the fans have been waiting for a goal for two and a half months.
Brentford, on the other hand, has recently surprised its own supporters, as the Bees have suddenly swapped home strength for away weakness. Their newfound defensive stability away from home is particularly impressive.
Given that Leicester is very adept at drawing goalless draws at home, I don’t think we’ll see a goal fest on Friday. That’s why I’ve decided on the following bet:
The 3.5 goals will not be broken!
