Premier League, Saturday, 05.04.2025 at 13:30
Diogo Jota scored the only goal in the Merseyside derby to hand Everton their first defeat in nine games. Just three days later, the Toffees head straight into their next match against a top team. The Gunners are the visitors.
For my Everton Arsenal betting tip, I didn’t have to think long about which odds to choose. I combined the “Over 0.5” and “Under 2.5” Arsenal goal odds at NEO.bet. In the next few sentences, I’ll tell you why this is the case.
Everton have gone nine games unbeaten in a row under new coach David Moyes. Now, of all teams, they suffered defeat against their city rivals. After the 2-2 draw in the first leg, the Toffees sold themselves well at Anfield (0-1).
However, with a 14-point lead over the relegation zone and a maximum of 24 points still up for grabs, the situation in the table remains relaxed. Everton will finish the season somewhere in the bottom half of the table. They are already ten points off tenth place.
Everton have conceded one or two goals in eight competitive games in a row. A statistic that fits my bet perfectly. In ten out of twelve matches under the Scottish coach, Everton have conceded that many goals.
And Arsenal have scored one or two goals in their last four games. Recently, they scored twice against their home rivals, a 1-0 win against Chelsea and a 2-1 victory over Fulham after the international break.
In attack, Bukayo Saka is back, scoring the interim 2-0. However, the England international only came off the bench. It remains to be seen whether he will play from the start on Saturday. With Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal are currently lacking options, particularly in the center.
Mikel Arteta’s compatriot and namesake Mikel Merino has recently taken on the role of center forward and scored against both City opponents. However, I prefer not to bet on a goalscorer, as I don’t expect a scoreline in this match.
A 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 for Arsenal are the most likely outcomes for me, perhaps the points will be shared via a 1-1 in the end. Let’s not forget that Everton have only lost one of their last ten matches and that was only narrowly against Liverpool.
Arsenal also play their Champions League quarter-final first leg against Real Madrid three days later. Therefore, the individual picks in the 1X2 market, where Arsenal is slightly favored, are not for me.
And Everton get to play Arsenal at home this time. After Crystal Palace, Everton have conceded the fewest goals in the bottom half of the table, 37 in just 30 games. The number one defense is still Arsenal with only 25.
In my opinion, there are not many good bets waiting for this game. Apart from the 1-2 Arsenal goals, I’m only tempted by the “Under 3.5 goals” line in combination with the “Double chance X2”, for which we still get odds just under the 1.50 mark.
I like the new customer bonus from NEO.bet much better. In addition to a whopping €100 in extra money, there are super fair wagering requirements with a minimum odds requirement of just 1.50.
In addition, all odds at NEO.bet are free of betting taxes and you can deposit and withdraw money via PayPal. Everton are not known for creating many top chances in a match this season.
What’s more, the Toffees are also the fifth most likely team to miss a chance, with odds of 7.1.
In the first leg, however, conversion was not the issue. With just two shots on target in the entire match and only 23 per cent possession, the men in blue were practically non-existent in attack.
However, they were not dissatisfied as visitors at the Emirates Stadium after the 0-0 draw. Especially as they didn’t concede much at the back. It was a different story last season, when Everton lost both games, 1-0 at home and 2-1 at the reunion.
The last home win came in 2023, a 1-0 victory, while high-scoring games like the 4-0 win in the second leg have been the exception in recent years. The Londoners have won 104 of a total of 209 duels, Everton 61 and we have seen a draw 44 times.
Two absences in the hosts’ defense should be an advantage for Arsenal. In addition to Orel Mangala, Vitaliy Mykolenko is missing in the center.
Meanwhile, the Gunners will have to make a few compromises on the wing in addition to the striker problem.
Conclusion: Everton against Arsenal, it can’t really get any worse than the first leg, where we saw a 0-0 draw with just around 15 shots on target.
As in the first match, I think the visitors will have more goal threat, Everton have been waiting for a clean sheet for eight games now, but have never let themselves be shot down in that time.
However, in the absence of Jesus and Havertz, I don’t expect Arsenal to win by a landslide. I also don’t expect Saka to start ahead of the upcoming Champions League game against Real Madrid three days later.
I expect the Gunners to push a ball over the line this time, but the result should remain within reason.
1-2 Arsenal goals!
