Bundesliga matchday 28, Saturday, 05.04.2025 at 15:30
Inverted world? Dortmund in mid-table and Freiburg above Borussia? That’s the bitter Bundesliga reality for all BVB fans shortly before the end of the 2024/25 season.
After an unplanned change of coach a few weeks ago, my Freiburg Dortmund betting tip expresses doubts that the Westphalians will be able to successfully build on their victory over Mainz on Saturday afternoon.
Especially as Schlotterbeck, an extremely important element within the black-and-yellow defense, is out of action …
It has long been a duel with history, which now shows how much the SCF has established itself as a permanent fixture in German soccer. The anniversary match on the 28th Bundesliga matchday will be the 50th first division clash between the two clubs.
However, the record clearly favors BVB: Dortmund has won the last six Bundesliga duels against SCF – Borussia’s longest winning streak against a current first division team and at the same time Freiburg’s longest negative streak against a league rival.
Can Sport-Club break this streak or will BVB extend their dominance? My Freiburg Dortmund prediction provides you with the best information for your bet!
The betting providers’ prediction?
The Freiburg Dortmund odds on the user-friendly Bet365 app could easily be taken as an invitation to speculate. Because nobody seems to be really sure about this match on the markets.
Freiburg with 3.20 as the home side – that almost sounds like a charming underdog tip. Dortmund with a 2.20 as the favorite? That’s nice, but not overly dominant. And the 3.60 for a draw?
Almost as tempting as a last cookie in the cookie jar – possible, but unsure whether you should really go for it. So excitement is guaranteed!
AI prediction Freiburg vs Dortmund: ChatGPT
The Freiburg Dortmund AI prediction from ChatGPT provided me with some well-intentioned betting options, of which only the supposedly safest tip really appealed to me.
For the high risk, “Freiburg win both halves” was suggested to me at odds of around 7.40. A little too risky for me personally, but for such high odds, the scenario is not completely absurd.
This is especially true if SCF get off to the right start on Saturday …
For a medium-risk soccer bet, on the other hand, the AI recommends “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.05. I see it differently! Freiburg vs Dortmund is usually a guarantee for many goals – I wouldn’t play this tip.
For a safe bet, the AI assistant finally suggests “Double chance 1X”. For me it’s clear: one to three points will stay in the Black Forest! The loss of Dortmund’s defensive boss is likely to weigh heavily
Analysis: Freiburg vs Dortmund
This went better than expected! Serhou Guirassy was not in the starting eleven against Mainz – and yet BVB still found a way to bring the visitors to their knees.
And that was sorely needed, because after a 0:1 against Augsburg and a 0:2 against RB Leipzig, I was already wondering whether Borussia might not have been better off with Nuri Sahin after all.
In any case, new coach Niko Kovac dared to make a few changes against Mainz and was rewarded for it.
Of course, supporters are now hoping to continue the great run of Bundesliga matches against Freiburg with another three-pointer.
Meanwhile, disillusionment is spreading at Sport-Club, especially after the disappointing 2-1 defeat against Union Berlin. However, their upcoming opponents are not exactly in top form either.
SC Freiburg have been winless in four Bundesliga games (3 draws, 1 defeat) and have therefore slipped out of the European Cup zone – the Sport-Club have only had such a dry spell once before this season!
It is also the first time under Julian Schuster that Freiburg have failed to win in two consecutive Bundesliga home games (1 draw, 1 defeat).
A small step backwards! Previously, the Breisgau team had only dropped points three times in their first eleven home games of the season (8 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats).
Odds Analysis
Not only the statistics, but also my feeling and my perception of the respective match strength lead me to the assumption that both a home win bet and an over-2.5-goal bet could pay off equally.
Freiburg winning at 3.20 also appeals to me because 8 of the last 10 editions of this pairing have gone to the home team.
For similar reasons, I can also do something with “Over 2.5 goals”, even at odds of around just 1.75.
After all, between three and six goals have been scored in all of the aforementioned ten competitive matches since October 2020.
Freiburg vs. Dortmund: I don’t like BVB away from home!
BVB already had a decent home record under Sahin, but when it comes to the team bus, the troops in yellow & black don’t seem to want to get on it at all – and not without reason!
Borussia Dortmund have already lost eight away games this Bundesliga season and are 16th in the away table with just 11 points.
That’s the worst record after 13 away games in 17 years – the last time it was just as bleak was in 2007/08 with only 11 points.
And that’s why I’m surprised that the visitors are still favored according to the current Freiburg Dortmund odds on the markets.
In fact, I have the impression that Sport-Club will burst a knot and the team will overcome Borussia for the first time since August 2021.
Freiburg can’t really lose against Kovac!
I’m not the biggest fan of Niko Kovac as a coach – as a player it was a completely different story, he was one of the best in his position.
But the numbers prove me right and at the same time support my Freiburg Dortmund tip!
The Croatian has only won one of his nine Bundesliga games against SC Freiburg as a coach (4 draws, 4 defeats).
The only win? A 6:0 with VfL Wolfsburg in January 2023 – his highest Bundesliga win ever. Incidentally, he only has an even worse win rate in the Bundesliga than against Freiburg (11%) against FC Bayern (0%).
Last but not least: Borussia Dortmund will be without the suspended Nico Schlotterbeck, who recently shone with two assists. Naturally, this news has made big waves in recent days.
No other Bundesliga defender has played as many passes in the final third this season as Schlotterbeck (311). Among BVB’s outfield players, only Serhou Guirassy (2,045 minutes) has been on the pitch longer than the central defender (1,984 minutes).
My Freiburg Dortmund tip:
Without Schlotterbeck, it will be difficult to consistently defend your own sixteen.
Freiburg are dangerous – especially from set-pieces, and I still don’t really trust Kovac’s team, even after the 3-1 win over Mainz.
My prediction: The SCF will win at least one half against Dortmund
