AS Roma – AC Milan betting tip
Luck of the draw brought the two Serie A representatives AS Roma and AC Milan a direct duel in the quarter-finals of the current Europa League season. The previous week, the two teams met at the Giuseppe Meazza for the first leg.
Figures such as possession (53%), shots on goal (25:10) and expected goals (1.61:0.62) actually spoke in favor of the home side. But in the end, the Romans won the game through a set piece.
Defender Gianluca Mancini scored with his head in the 17th minute to make the final score 1:0 for the Giallorossi. The second leg will follow this Thursday at the Olympic Stadium in Rome
The home side naturally go into the second leg with an advantage thanks to their narrow victory. However, the Rossoneri are far from throwing in the towel and only have one goal to make up.
If you look at the bookmakers’ odds before kick-off, the visitors are even slightly ahead. But there are also some factors that speak in favor of the home side.
My preview of this match will show what these are and why I’m opting for the bet “Double chance 1/x & Under 4.5 goals” in my AS Roma vs AC Milan betting tip at odds of over 1.70 with provider Happybet.
The bookmaker forecast
In the Serie A table, Milan are three places and 14 points ahead of Roma. That’s one of the reasons why the best bookmakers are backing the visitors in the AS Roma vs AC Milan prediction.
However, the Rossoneri (30) have only collected four more points than the Giallorossi in the second half of the season. And then there is the home advantage of Associazione Sportiva.
Nevertheless, the hosts are the slight underdogs on Thursday with average odds of 2.90 to win. On the other hand, you can get odds averaging 2.50 for a win for the visitors.
For a draw after 90 minutes, for example, Interwetten offers odds of 3.45. This tip can be perfectly combined with the Interwetten welcome bonus
Analysis: AS Roma vs AC Milan
In the “eternal city”, José Mourinho was sacked in mid-January. AS were only 9th in Serie A. However, successor Daniele de Rossi, who had played for the club as a professional for 18 years, quickly got the team back on track.
As a result, the capital city club can still hope to achieve its ultimate goal of qualifying for the next top flight. After 32 match days, Roma are fifth and four points behind the first CL place.
However, as the Giallorossi still have a catch-up game in hand, the gap could be reduced to one point. Their record under the new coach is eleven wins, three draws and just two defeats.
One reason for the upturn in fortunes is the attacking duo of Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku. But even if the two attackers don’t score, the team is hard to beat
The defense is currently extremely strong and has not conceded a goal in four competitive matches. The new coach also has some tactical finesse up his sleeve.
In the first leg against Milan the previous week, Stephan El Shaarawy surprisingly started on the right wing in a 4-3-3. In addition, Paulo Dybala repeatedly dropped between the lines, leaving his opponents outnumbered.
Roma now want to build on their image as a cup team. The club won the UEFA Europa Conference League in 2021/22. And in the previous season, the Giallorossi reached the Europa League final against Sevilla.
When the Romans have won the first leg of an international knockout tie away from home, they have progressed in 14 out of 14 cases. AS have also lost just one of their last 31 European Cup home games
Analysis of odds
In the last eight Serie A duels between the two clubs, goals have always been scored on both sides. During this period, the “2.5 goals” figure has also been exceeded seven times.
In the AS Roma vs AC Milan preview, the bookies are now expecting similar results again. However, I assess the starting position differently. Roma have not conceded a goal in four competitive matches.
The Giallorossi have never scored more than once in their last five matches. And the first leg in the previous week also ended 1-0, so I’d rather bet on “Under 2.5 goals” or “Both teams to score – No”.
With Betway, for example, you get odds of 2.10 if one team scores at most. Before placing your first bet with the bookmaker, you should not miss out on the Betway betting bonus.
You can also place your bets with the provider conveniently via the Betway app.
Will Milan use their last chance to win the title?
With 69 points after 32 match days, AC Milan are playing the second-best season in the club’s history. However, with Inter having an incredibly strong season, the Rossoneri will probably only finish runners-up in the end.
There are still 18 points up for grabs in Serie A. But the gap to their city neighbors is already 14 points. In the cup, the “Diavolo” were eliminated in the quarter-finals at home against Atalanta Bergamo.
Associazione Calcio can therefore concentrate fully on the Europa League. This trophy would also be missing from the club’s rich history of seven trophies.
A Europa League triumph would also erase any doubts about coach Stefano Pioli. The coach is still smarting from his elimination from the top flight after the group stage
Can AC close the gap?
In the previous season, the club reached the semi-finals of the Champions League. In 13 Serie A second-round games, Milan suffered just one defeat.
In March, the team won all six of its competitive matches. In April, after losing the first leg against Roma, they drew 3-3 at basement club Sassuolo at the weekend.
Coach Stefano Pioli would have liked to see more courage and pride from his team in the last two games. In addition, the Rossoneri only scored twice against the Romans in the final quarter of an hour.
In the last eight knockout matches in which Milan have lost the first leg at home, they have always been eliminated in the end. Now the coach is hoping for a reaction from the team
The previous week, the two clubs met for the first time in the European Cup. Milan have the edge in domestic competitions after 190 matches, with 85 wins to 48 defeats.
Of the last 14 meetings against the Rossoneri, the Giallorossi have only won two. The Romans have also lost three of their last four home games against Milan
On matchday 3 of the current season, AS suffered a 2:1 home defeat against AC. The home side also won the second leg in Milan in mid-January 3:1.
The last club to win two away games at Roma in one season was Florence in 2014/15. Milan have also lost just one of six European Cup away games at league rivals (2S, 3U).
My Roma Milan tip:
The first leg was a duel at eye level, in which luck was mainly on Roma’s side. Now, however, the home side go into the second leg with an advantage.
And since the Giallorossi have been very strong in terms of form and defense under coach De Rossi of late, I think this advantage should ultimately be enough for them to progress.
After all, the home-strong Romans have never been denied an away win in the first leg of a European Cup tie. In addition, AS have also felt very comfortable in international competitions (ECL & EL) in recent years.
I therefore think the home side will at least manage a draw and expect a maximum of four goals to be scored in the match. My AS Roma AC Milan prediction is therefore: Double chance 1/x & Under 4.5 goals!
