Sport-Club Freiburg – FSV Mainz 05 betting tip
At the end of the 30th matchday in the Bundesliga, Sport-Club Freiburg will face FSV Mainz 05 at Europa-Park Stadium.
European Cup hopes versus relegation fears – that could be the headline for this match. The hosts not only need the three-pointer with a view to Europe. They also want to end their home woes.
The visitors from Rheinhessen, on the other hand, want to leave the relegation places after a long time, which they would probably achieve with a win.
The bookies expect a duel at eye level and can’t agree on a favorite. In fact, I don’t see any team as a real favorite here either.
Ultimately, however, I believe that the home advantage will prevail here and dare to make the Freiburg Mainz prediction that Sport-Club will not lose here. However, SCF will probably not manage without conceding a goal.
Therefore, I finally opt for the tip “Double chance 1X & Both teams score”, for which I get odds of 2.20 at Happybet
The prediction of the bookmakers?
As you can see from the odds distribution of the best sports betting providers, the odds for the winning bets are not too far apart. The bookies are unsure when it comes to assessing a favorite.
However, the bookmakers are certain about the answer to the question of whether both teams will score. With betting odds of 1.58 for “both teams to score”, the answer can only be “yes”.
With values between 1.68 and 1.74 for a bet on “Over 2.5 goals”, the bookmakers are expecting a few goals anyway. The odds for the counter bet, i.e. for a maximum of two goals in the match, average 2.10.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Mainz
Freiburg celebrated their third win in a row with a 1-0 victory in Darmstadt last matchday – albeit with one caveat. It was the Sport-Club’s third away win in a row.
At home, SCF are currently presenting a completely different picture. The Breisgau side have been without a win at home for five Bundesliga matches. There have only been two draws with three further defeats.
In the form table for the last five home games, coach Christian Streich’s team are in second-last place, with only the Lilies from Darmstadt behind them.
Streich would love to bid farewell to his favorite club with a ticket to international business. However, a few more points are needed for that to happen. Sport-Club are currently only in eighth place
In the last five BL home matches, SCF have conceded a total of 15 goals, an average of exactly three goals per home match. In the first nine home games of the current BL season, only eleven goals were conceded.
In Sport-Club’s last six home games, goals have been scored by both sides. After all this, there are already good reasons for Freiburg Mainz betting that both teams will score.
With a total of 52 goals conceded, SCF have the fifth-worst defense in the top flight despite finishing eighth. It has scored 41 goals itself.
In the last eight matchdays, Streich’s side have always managed to score at least one goal of their own. At home, they have managed to do so in 19 of 20 competitive matches this season
Analysis of odds
If you also look at Mainz’s recent results, which we’ll do in a moment, then there are some arguments for assuming a high-scoring game here.
In this respect, I can also advise you to bet on “Over 3.5 goals”, but then with a moderate stake or, in the best case, with free credit.
At Interwetten, for example, there are proud odds of 2.70. Advantage: The bookie currently offers an Interwetten betting bonus, which you could use for this tip
FSV last with 10 out of 12 points
FSV have scored four goals in each of their last two Bundesliga matches alone. In the 4:0 win against Darmstadt and the 4:1 win against Hoffenheim, it also collected extremely important points in the relegation battle.
In general, the Rheinhessen’s recent results have been good. In the last four matchdays, they have won three games and drawn away at Champions League aspirants RB Leipzig.
Only champions Leverkusen have scored more points from their last four games than the “Nullfünfer” (Stuttgart and Leipzig also took ten out of twelve points).
However, it should also be noted that Mainz have won their last three games at home. Away from home, there was the draw at RB. But apart from that, FSV have hardly put anything together away from home this season
Mainz winless in 18 away games
On the contrary: Mainz are the only club not to have won a single away game in the Bundesliga this season. In addition to seven draws, there have been seven defeats.
Prior to the clean sheet at the Bulls, the Nullfünfer had lost four away games in a row by a total of 3-14 goals. I don’t think it’s all that likely that they will now win in Freiburg.
In this respect, I at least am somewhat surprised by the high Freiburg Mainz odds for betting on a home win. The good thing is that the odds for the “double chance 1X” are still decent.
FSV have not won in 18 away matches in the German top flight this season (9U, 9N), which is the club’s current negative record in the Bundesliga
I don’t deny that Mainz are currently on a strong run. Three wins in the last four matchdays are as many three-pointers as FSV have previously won in 33 Bundesliga games.
The Rheinhessen side have also conceded just one goal in their last four Bundesliga games, making them the best defensive team since matchday 26. In addition, three of these white vests are one more than in the previous 14 Bundesliga games
However, three of the last four matches have been played at home in the Mewa Arena. In this respect, I would differentiate and continue to see a slight advantage for the home team.
The fact that Mainz have more Bundesliga wins against any other team than Sport-Club (14) does not change this. On the other hand, they have not won any of their last five matches against SCF
My Freiburg Mainz tip:
The Sport-Club won the first leg 1-0 away from home. It has been unbeaten at home against FSV for two matches. In five of the last six head-to-head meetings in Breisgau, goals have been scored by both sides.
I’m not unaware of Mainz’s recent performances and I also know that even though they’ve won their last games at home, these results also give them confidence for the away games.
Nevertheless, I remain of the opinion that the visitors will not end their away misery on Sunday. SCF want to get into Europe and will do everything they can to achieve this goal under Christian Streich last season.
I’m not saying that Freiburg will win here. But I think it’s very likely that the home side will at least not lose.
However, the way the Breisgauers’ last home games have gone and the way the Nullfünfer have presented themselves recently, I don’t expect SCF to keep a clean sheet here.
Accordingly, my Freiburg Mainz betting tip is: Double chance 1X & Both teams to score
