U21 European Championship 2025, Group A, Tuesday, 17.06.2025, 21:00
Spain and Italy were the first two teams to reach the quarter-finals of the 2025 U21 European Championship on Saturday. After two match days, the “Rojita” and the “Azzurrini” each have six points to their name.
The two nations will face each other directly on Tuesday evening to conclude the group stage. Who will secure the group victory? That’s the question I’ll be answering in my Spain U21 vs. Italy U21 prediction.
A look at the odds sees the Italians clearly ahead. However, I’m going for a bet on Spain U21 vs. Italy U21 at odds of 1.68 at Bet-at-home, with “Italy to win with a handicap of +2 & under 3.5 goals.”
The best bookmakers, who also have the best betting bonuses for you, are clearly on the side of the Iberians in this duel. For a victory for the “Rojita,” the Spain U21 Italy U21 betting odds are currently climbing to a high of 1.75.
On the other side, you can get odds between 4.20 and 5.00 for a win for the “Azzurrini.” One reason for this clear difference is the performance of both teams in the last European Championship.
Of course, this matchup has even more Spain U21 Italy U21 tips in store for you. Italy is one of only two teams in the current tournament that has yet to concede a goal. The Azzurrini are sure to defend with focus again in their final group match.
That leads us to the tip “Under 2.5 goals,” for which we get odds of 1.88 at NEO.bet. Don’t have an account with this provider yet? Then sign up now and claim your NEO.bet welcome bonus!
Along with Germany and England, Spain is one of the bookmakers’ top favorites for the 2025 U21 European Championship. However, coach Santi Denia’s team struggled in their first two games.
In their first game against hosts Slovakia, “La Rojita” took a 2-0 lead after 18 minutes. But then the young Iberians conceded two goals shortly after the break, which remained unanswered until shortly before the end.
It was only Tarrega’s goal in the 90th minute that secured a narrow 3-2 opening victory. This trend continued in the second group game against Romania. It was only a red card for the Romanians in the 84th minute that turned the game around.
The Spaniards then took advantage of their numerical superiority to turn the game around with goals in the 85th and 88th minutes and secure a 2-1 victory. Mateo Joseph had missed a penalty for the Reds in the first half.
The Spanish U21 team has won the title in three of the last seven European Championships (2011, 2013, and 2019). In addition, “La Rojita” has always reached at least the semifinals in the last four finals.
Nine appearances in the final is the best record. At the 2023 European Championship, they lost 1-0 to England in the final. Spain also had a great qualifying campaign for the 2025 European Championship, with nine wins, one draw, and a goal difference of 28-5.
In the last three U21 European Championships, Italy failed to make it past the group stage twice. The Azzurrini will definitely avoid that fate in the current tournament.
The team coached by Carmine Nunziata owes this to two narrow victories. With a 1-0 win against Romania on the first matchday, the Italian youngsters started a U21 European Championship with a clean sheet for the first time since 2017.
Goalkeeper Sebastiano Desplanches also saved a penalty shortly before half-time. The young Italians also won their second game against hosts Slovakia 1-0.
The decisive goal was scored in the 7th minute. Together with Spain, the “Gli Azzurrini” are the record winners of the U21 European Championship (5 titles). However, the last U21 triumph for the soccer-mad country dates back to 2004.
Between 1992 and 1996, Italy won three consecutive titles at the U21 European Championship. No other country can boast such a string of successes in this youth tournament.
Like Spain, Italy remained undefeated in qualifying. The record from the ten qualifying matches was six wins and four draws, with a goal difference of 27:4.
The U21 teams of the two nations have faced each other 25 times. Spain leads the record with 12 wins to seven defeats (6 draws). The good statistics are mainly due to the test matches.
Here, “La Rojita” is clearly ahead with eight wins and only three defeats (3 draws). However, the two teams have not played each other in a friendly international since 2017.
Looking only at competitive matches, the record is completely even after eleven games, with four wins (3 draws) each. In European Championship qualifying, the “Gli Azzurrini” are still undefeated against the Iberians (1 win, 1 draw).
The same is true in the group stage of a European Championship (1W, 1D). The two teams have met four times in the final of the U21 European Championship, with each country winning twice. There have also been two quarter-finals and one semi-final, with two wins for the Reds (1D).
Conclusion: As in many other final tournaments, the Spanish team is rightly one of the favorites at the 2025 U21 European Championship thanks to its high quality. However, things did not go smoothly for “La Rojita” in the first two group matches.
The victories came very late and were therefore quite fortunate. Italy, on the other hand, was able to rely on its good defense and scored exactly once in each game.
After the tournament, the difference between the two teams is too clear to me from the bookmakers’ point of view. I expect a very close duel between two evenly matched teams and believe that the “Azzurrini” will take home a virtual two-goal lead.
My Spain U21 vs. Italy U21 prediction is therefore: Italy to win with a +2 handicap & under 3.5 goals!
