Chelsea – PSG Tip Club World Cup, Final on Sunday, 13.06.2025 at 9:00 p.m. (Live on TV)
Shortly before the climax of the greatest Club World Cup of all time, everything is now set for the grand final, which, according to almost all relevant experts, can only have one winner in the end.
After Paris destroyed Inter Milan 5-0 in the Champions League final, Luis Enrique’s team has repeatedly shown in recent days that it is still in breathtaking form.
With my Chelsea PSG prediction, I am therefore also siding with the big favorites – and am expecting another comfortable victory with at least a two-goal margin.
However, based on recent impressions, the Blues may even consider themselves lucky if they actually only suffer such a narrow defeat at the end of regular time.
Chelsea may have proven their hunger for silverware with their triumph in the Conference League, but both there and on the more favorable side of the Club World Cup draw, the English side faced much more grateful opponents.
While the Londoners recently “only” dominated Benfica and the last Brazilian hopefuls, PSG made a mockery of the elite of European football.
Before things got really bad for Real Madrid in the semi-finals, the French side had already mercilessly put Bayern and Atletico Madrid in their place, among others.
My prediction may be obvious, but my preview also has a number of additional Chelsea PSG predictions to offer!
Chelsea – PSG prediction & bets
Rarely has a team dominated a tournament as PSG has dominated the current Club World Cup. Accordingly, my premium tip for the final is a comfortable victory with at least a two-goal margin.
However, my other recommendations also take into account the current top form of the French side. Namely, the fact that Paris has not conceded a goal in seven of its last eight competitive games is reflected in attractive odds in my other Club World Cup final tips.
On top of that, only four of Chelsea’s last eleven games have met the conditions for a “BTS,” so I’m going for odds of 2.10 on Sunday for a maximum of one team scoring.
If I then go one step further and bet on the widely expected PSG victory, the odds for a clean sheet for the French side rise to almost three times the stake!
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What you need to bear in mind when betting on Chelsea vs. PSG
- Chelsea have scored in each of their last nine competitive games, averaging 2.22 goals per game. The Blues have won eight of those games (including extra time), with their only defeat coming in the group stage against Flamengo.
- PSG have conceded an average of just 0.58 xGA (expected goals against) per 90 minutes in this competition. In the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League, the Parisians have accumulated an average of 1.09 xGA per game.
- Our internal prediction model gives PSG a 55.49% chance of winning within 90 minutes. That’s a higher probability than in the Champions League final against Inter Milan in May. At that time, the average odds for a PSG win were significantly higher at 2.10 than they are now (1.61).
- Chelsea is the English club PSG has played most often (8 times), alongside Manchester City. The French side are unbeaten in their last four encounters (2 wins, 2 draws). Chelsea’s last victory came in April 2014 (2-0 in the Champions League quarter-finals).
- Joao Pedro is the first Chelsea player since Demba Ba on January 5, 2013, to score twice on his debut in the starting line-up. On that day, Chelsea won 5-1 against Southampton in the FA Cup.
Chelsea – PSG: odds analysis
Given PSG’s clear favouritism, the Club World Cup final does not necessarily promise to be a thriller. However, with one or two unconventional Chelsea PSG tips, our in-house AI is clearly intent on ensuring that there will be plenty of nail-biting moments.
To my surprise, the artificial intelligence has mostly come up with suggestions in which the English underdogs play an important role. This already applies to the prediction that both teams will score at least one goal in regular time.
Given the defensive strength of the French side, as described above, I would tend to advise against this recommendation, especially since the betting providers offering quick payouts for BTS are only offering odds of around 1.65 in the event of success.
Since I doubt that the Blues will score, the second Chelsea PSG AI tip is also not my cup of tea – after all, there are high expectations for Joao Pedro here.
However, if the two-goal scorer from the semi-final does score again in the final, contrary to expectations, you will get exactly four times your stake back.
The bookmaker responsible for these odds, Bet365, also offers attractive Bet365 betting credits!
In my opinion, the goal scorer bet is high risk, but the final alternative suddenly looks very different with odds that are almost as high.
If Paris wins both halves against Chelsea again, this will be rewarded with very attractive odds of 3.65!
The best odds for Chelsea vs. PSG
Considering the reigning Champions League winners’ performances so far, I am quite pleased to note that a Chelsea PSG tip on the big favorites is still worthwhile in the final.
After Real Madrid’s humiliation, I had feared that the odds for Paris would be extremely low, but the current odds of around 1.60 are still very respectable.
Nevertheless, it will of course only really get expensive for international bookmakers if there is a surprise in the Club World Cup final.
A draw after 90 minutes is already priced at an attractive 4.20, while a clear victory for the English side within regular time easily breaks the 5.00 barrier.
Chelsea vs. PSG match analysis:
Both teams are likely to approach the game in a similar manner. Both coaches want their teams to remain patient when in possession and put the opposition under pressure high up the pitch. However, PSG are the favourites and should be able to impose their game on Chelsea.
Luis Enrique has moulded his squad into an impressive team. Thanks to their high-quality style and creativity, the French are currently the benchmark in world football.
Opposing defenses have great difficulty with the positional changes in PSG’s ranks. Players such as Desire Doue, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, and, of course, Ousmane Dembele can pop up on the wings as well as in the middle. Their running without the ball further fuels Les Parisiens’ high-pressing football and gives their opponents no respite.
Vitinha, Neves and Ruiz also form a balanced midfield. The trio dictate the tempo of the game and are supported by Hakimi and Mendes, two of the hardest-working full-backs in football.
Chelsea knows that the stars are not aligned in their favor, but the Blues still have the quality to cause PSG problems. Enzo Fernandez will try to cause trouble in midfield with persistent fouls. The Argentine also has the ability to play passes that can break down the defense and help his team launch successful counterattacks.
Given PSG’s strong defense, the Londoners will probably have to hope for moments of magic to score a goal. Fortunately for Enzo Maresca, he has several players who are capable of doing just that.
João Pedro made headlines in the semifinals. The Brazilian scored two beautiful goals on his debut in Chelsea’s starting lineup and is therefore likely to start in the final.
Pedro Neto and Cole Palmer also have the speed and creativity to drive Chelsea forward and punish PSG if the French side get carried away and send too many players forward.
FC Chelsea form check
Chelsea’s road to the final has been rocky, but after a strong performance in their 2-0 semi-final win over Fluminense, the English side have earned their place in the final.
João Pedro stole the show, scoring twice on his debut for the club. However, Chelsea played excellently throughout and were in control for long periods of the game.
The Blues have improved as the tournament has progressed and are playing their best football in the knockout stages. Enzo Maresca’s side look like a completely different team to the one that lost 3-1 to Flamengo in the group stage and, despite being underdogs, are capable of holding their own in the final.
Chelsea are very solid defensively. Their opponents have averaged just 7.83 shots on goal per game (regular time only) in the Club World Cup, which is well below the tournament average of 12.88. Limiting the opposition’s offense will also be crucial in the final.
Maresca’s team survived a scare in the round of 16 against Benfica. The team was on the road to victory, but a two-hour interruption that began in the 86th minute robbed Chelsea of its momentum.
The Portuguese opponents managed to take the game into extra time. In the end, however, the Blues prevailed 4-1, a well-deserved victory.
Fans are now hoping that Chelsea can prove their character against PSG.
Paris Saint-Germain form check
PSG confirmed their fantastic form with a 4-0 victory over Real Madrid in the semi-finals and are now going into the match against Chelsea with a lot of confidence.
Les Parisiens had already proven that they are currently the gold standard in European football in the Champions League final against Inter Milan at the end of May. Now they have the chance to crown themselves the best club in the world, and it would be brave to bet against them.
Luis Enrique’s team has conceded only one goal in its six games at the Club World Cup. That lone goal came in a 1-0 defeat to Botafogo in the group stage. PSG had 12 more shots on goal than its opponent in that game but failed to convert any of them.
Since then, PSG’s offense has improved significantly, scoring twelve goals in four games. In the round of 16, the Parisians defeated Inter Miami 4-0. Even more impressive was their performance in the quarterfinals, when the team created five big chances in a 2-0 win over Bayern Munich.
The victory against Los Blancos was undoubtedly the French side’s best performance so far. Enrique’s team dominated the game and had 68% possession. In the end, they had an xG value of 2.77 – 1.99 more than their opponents.
If PSG can put in a performance anywhere near as good on Sunday, the team should have no trouble securing the world title.
My tip: PSG to win with a -1 handicap
