Allsvenskan Matchday 16, Monday, 21.07.2025 at 19:00
Anyone with just one win after 15 rounds is probably stuck in a relegation battle. 15 rounds played in mid-July? You heard right, there are leagues in Europe that are already halfway through the season.
Let’s take a look at the Swedish Allsvenskan, where my Norrköping Vaernamo tip is on the bottom of the table. I don’t think the visitors will win. However, I’m playing it safe and recommending the following bet: The home team will score a maximum of four goals!
Let’s start the analysis with the bottom team, because maybe there are one or two Vaernamo fans among you who are waiting for a glimmer of hope for Monday.
The club from the Swedish province of Jönköping is really struggling to get going. A few days ago, they managed to score three points for the first time this season, beating Djurgarden 1-0.
The goal? It came, significantly, in the fourth minute of stoppage time. It would not have been at all surprising if Vaernamo had ended this match without scoring.
They’ve scored twice in their last six matches, which is hard to beat. Incidentally, in those six games, they’ve never scored more than 2.5 goals. This is curious, because previously they had scored five, six, or even seven goals in a single game.
After starting the season with seven defeats, Vaernamo has at least stabilized a little. Three defeats in the last eight games is a step in the right direction.
Vaernamo has not lost in four home games. Strong, but unfortunately relatively useless ahead of the upcoming match, which is away from home. The 1-1 draw against GAIS was the only point they have picked up away from home.
0-2, 0-2, 0-1 – the last three away games not only ended without a point, but also without a goal. It goes without saying that Vaernamo have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home.
If you want to rule out “both teams to score” on Monday, you can get odds of 2.25 at Bet365. That’s not bad, but if you also play the betting bonus here, you can reinvest over $100 in betting credits in the best case scenario.
After conceding goals in the first half nine times in a row, they have now gone five games without conceding in the first 45 minutes. With four defeats, one draw, and two wins since Vaernamo returned to the top flight, their record against Norrköping leaves room for improvement.
Looking at the bookmakers, we see that caution is the order of the day. The home side are favorites, but with odds of 2.10 to 3.10, it is not automatically clear who will take the points in the end.
Norrköping is in twelfth place, so they have no chance of finishing in the top spots. With four wins, three draws, and eight losses, if things continue like this, it looks very much like a relegation battle.
The club from the province of Östergötland has lost three of its last four games. Is it an advantage that they are playing at home on Monday? Norrköping won the first two home games of this round, but since then, they have failed to do so.
Five defeats and one draw – there is no doubt that they are in crisis at home. Games without conceding a goal? Absolutely none. A goal for the visitors therefore seems a foregone conclusion, but the odds are only 1.27.
The hosts have not scored in the first half in five matches. It is also interesting to note that they have conceded five of their last six goals before half-time.
A goal from Vaernamo in the first half would earn you odds of 2.07 at Betano. It’s just a shame that the visitors are anything but accurate in front of goal.
The match between Norrköping and Vaernamo is definitely not a top-of-the-table clash. While the visitors have won only once this season, the home side have picked up just one point in their last six home games.
So will anyone win here? Not necessarily, I could well imagine a draw. However, I’ve opted for the “Double Chance 1X” because Vaernamo are virtually getting nothing away from home.
I’m not convinced by the defenses, but there have been very few goals in recent weeks, especially for the visitors. That’s why I’m limiting the possibilities for a spectacle and saying:
Norrköping will score under 4.5 goals!
