Bayern – RB Leipzig Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 1 on Friday, 08/22/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
Here we go again! The Bundesliga kicks off the 2025/26 season with a real cracker. FC Bayern face RB Leipzig. The key question is: Can the Saxons stand up to the defending champions and put in a convincing performance at the Allianz Arena?
I don’t expect any major surprises in my Bayern Leipzig prediction. My selected combination bet “Bayern win & both teams to score” at NEO.bet at odds of around 2.25 is based on recent statistics.
My Bayern RB Leipzig prediction: Bayern win & both teams to score
Here are the reasons for my prediction:
- Bayern have won three of their last four games, conceding a goal in each.
- In the last eight direct Bundesliga encounters, both teams have scored at least one goal.
- Leipzig has scored in its last six Bundesliga away games in Munich.
In recent years, Leipzig has regularly scored goals against Munich. In the end, however, FCB has always come out on top, especially at home.
Accordingly, I am surprised that the classic “both teams to score” is a viable betting option in my Bayern RB Leipzig prediction. The odds for this are above 1.50.
Bayern – RB Leipzig prediction & betting
So one thing is clear: I expect to see a few goals between Bayern and Leipzig. Goal bets at online bookmakers are therefore at the top of my list for this match. “Over 1.5 Bayern goals at half-time” is a good option. The odds are just under 2.35 and would have been successful in the first half of last season (5-1 for Bayern).
And where there are goals, there must be goal scorers. Bayern’s new signing Luis Díaz has already scored in the Super Cup against Stuttgart. The odds for him to score in the Bundesliga opener against RB Leipzig are around 2.00.
The favorite to score is, of course, Harry Kane. The odds for the Englishman scoring at least one goal are barely scratching the 1.50 mark. However, given the accuracy of last season’s top scorer, this bet is a safe bet.
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Bayern vs. RB Leipzig
- No team had a higher percentage of games with over 3.5 goals (59%) than Bayern Munich last season.
- Bayern won eight of their 17 Bundesliga home games in 2024/25 by at least three goals. In eleven games, they won by at least two goals.
- RB Leipzig will not be playing internationally for the first time since their promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016 after finishing only seventh in 2024/25.
- RB finished 11th in the away table and won only one league game on the road in 2025.
- Michael Olise has been among the top 2% of all attacking midfielders/wingers in assists per 90 minutes over the last 12 months.
Bayern – RB Leipzig: AI tip & odds analysis
You know the drill: this is where the AI comes in and presents its very own Bayern Leipzig AI prediction – conveniently divided into three risk categories.
For low risk, the AI has put together a very interesting combination tip. “Double chance 1X & under 4.5 goals” is definitely worth considering at odds of around 1.60, as even a 3-1 win for Bayern or a 2-2 draw would still be covered.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Bayern win |
Draw |
RB Leipzig win |
| 71.4% |
15.8% |
12.9% |
The AI sees medium risk in the prediction “draw at half-time.” The odds are very lucrative at around 3.00. And I consider a 1-1 score at half-time to be quite realistic.
When it comes to high risk, the old tin can falls back on a draw. However, this refers to a “draw as the final result,” which I don’t find particularly convincing. Only three of the last nine league matches between Bayern and RB Leipzig ended in a draw.
The best odds for Bayern vs. RB Leipzig
The Bundesliga kicks off with a real highlight on the opening Friday of the season. German champions Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig. Vincent Kompany’s Bayern go into the game as clear favorites with odds of 1.25.
Bayern have been given a handicap of -2 for their home game in the sold-out Allianz Arena. In the past Bundesliga season, the southern Germans won eight of 17 home games by at least three goals.
In eleven of these home games, the lead was at least two goals. RB Leipzig lost only twice by two or more goals in 17 away games – one of these games, however, was the 1-5 defeat against Bayern in December.
Leipzig’s away win should not really play a role in betting considerations anyway. It is no coincidence that odds in double digits are being offered for an RB win at the Allianz Arena.
Bayern vs RB Leipzig match analysis:
RB Leipzig may be looking back on a disappointing 2024/25 season, but they have proven several times in recent years that they can keep up with the record champions – Bayern have won only two of the last seven direct duels.
Vincent Kompany’s team is once again the clear favorite for the championship title. They won it with ease last season, but Bayer Leverkusen’s success in the 2023/24 season has shown that national success cannot be taken for granted at the moment.
Bayern created numerous chances in their Super Cup win against Stuttgart last weekend, and we are likely to see a similar picture this time around. Harry Kane and Luis Díaz scored for Kompany’s team before Stuttgart scored a late consolation goal.
Bayern’s offense will have a lot of possession in the final third in this game as well. Bayern play aggressive pressing football, have the highest defensive line in the Bundesliga and had one of the lowest PPDA values in Europe’s top five leagues last season at 8.99.
Bayern form check
There’s no question that Bayern are once again clear favorites for the title. The squad has been strengthened with new signings such as Jonathan Tah from Bayer Leverkusen and Luis Díaz from Liverpool FC.
Díaz made an immediate impression on his debut for FC Bayern, scoring the goal that secured a 2-1 win over VfB Stuttgart and the German Super Cup for his new club. FC Bayern won the Super Cup for the eleventh time in total.
The Colombian seems to have settled in well after his summer move from Liverpool, and his performance on Saturday suggests that he could help Bayern in the transition to the post-Thomas Müller era.
Harry Kane, meanwhile, scored the first goal in the Super Cup for Bayern after benefiting from a lucky rebound.
Despite Munich’s control of the game, Stuttgart’s Nick Woltemade forced Manuel Neuer into a decisive save, but the Bayern captain was on hand.
Overall, it was a successful preseason. After the Club World Cup, Munich won all three official test matches and made positive headlines with a 4-0 win over Tottenham.
RB Leipzig form check
RB Leipzig’s preseason preparations have been mixed, with three wins and two defeats – results that reflect a team in transition after a disappointing seventh-place finish last season.
New coach Ole Werner, known for his tactical cleverness at Werder Bremen, has set his sights on leading the club back to the top flight.
Despite the sale of Benjamin Sesko to Manchester United, RB Leipzig’s offense remains its strongest asset.
The club has strengthened its squad with notable new signings such as 20-year-old Ezechiel Banzuzi and talented youngsters Rômulo, Johan Bakayoko, and Yan Diomande.
Rômulo Cardoso, one of the youngest new signings, stands out with 22 goal contributions in the Turkish Süper Lig in the 2024/25 season.
Leipzig started their season with a 4-2 win against Sandhausen in the DFB Cup. However, the goals conceded against a fourth-division side suggest that there is still room for improvement in defense.
