St. Pauli – Dortmund Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 1 on Saturday, 08/23/2025 at 6:30 p.m.
Did you know that St. Pauli scored the fewest goals in the Bundesliga last season with 0.83 goals per game?
And since the Kiezkickers were unable to find the back of the net in over 120 minutes against Norderstedt in the DFB Cup just a few days ago, my St. Pauli Dortmund tip is what it is!
There are plenty of credible reasons to head to a betting provider with the intention of putting your money on Borussia!
My St. Pauli Dortmund prediction: BVB will win!
These are the reasons for my prediction:
- St. Pauli didn’t score a single goal against Norderstedt a few days ago!
- St. Pauli has lost 7 of its last 8 matches against Borussia!
- BVB could win their 11th consecutive match on the first matchday!
It’s a real prestige duel – but in recent years, it has been clearly dominated by the Black and Yellows.
St. Pauli and BVB are meeting for the 19th time in the Bundesliga, and the record is clear: Dortmund has won 11 of the last 12 matches and is unbeaten in this series (1 draw). BVB has no longer active winning streak against any other current Bundesliga team.
By way of comparison, Dortmund has only collected more points per game in the top flight against Energie Cottbus (2.4) than against St. Pauli (2.3).
St. Pauli – Dortmund prediction & bets
My preferred result is a 2-0 win for Borussia. On the one hand, because the accompanying odds of 9.00 on average are very respectable, and on the other hand, because the last match between the two teams at the Millerntor ended with this result.
Under 3.5 goals at around 1.40 also appeals to me. St. Pauli may have problems scoring Bundesliga goals, but they usually defend their own penalty area excellently!
Finally, at odds of around 2.67, I can also recommend “Half-time/Full-time 2/2.” If Borussia scores 1-0 in the first half, they will in all likelihood hold on to their lead until the end.
What you need to bear in mind when betting on St. Pauli vs. Dortmund
- St. Pauli scored the fewest Bundesliga goals last season, averaging 0.83 per game.
- Dortmund scored an average of 2.5 goals per Bundesliga game under Niko Kovac.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in each of Borussia’s last 8 competitive games.
- Serhou Guirassy has scored 15 goals in his last 12 competitive games for Borussia.
St. Pauli – Dortmund: AI tip & odds analysis
The St. Pauli Dortmund AI prediction has broadened my horizons. In fact, almost all three of the AI assistant’s suggestions can be used to make promising football bets.
1st goal: Serhou Guirassy is such a great tip at odds of around 3.95 because the striker has scored a total of 15 goals in his last 12 competitive games for BVB!
Predicted chance of winning:
| St. Pauli win |
Draw |
Dortmund win |
| 21.7% |
22.6% |
55.7% |
Both teams to score at odds of around 1.75 doesn’t appeal to me much. However, Borussia conceded as many Bundesliga goals last season (51) as they did in 2008.
1st goal: Dortmund at 1.55 is much better, even if the payout is a little lower if they win. I seriously doubt that the Kiezkickers will score at all on Saturday.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Dortmund
This Saturday, I’m going with the Betano promo code and the St. Pauli Dortmund odds from the bookmaker of the same name, because nowhere else are they better!
I don’t believe in a home win, but the St. Pauli odds for three points on the opening day are at least high enough to get their own fans excited, at an average of 4.40.
A draw is not completely unthinkable, but with odds of around 4.00, the risk-reward ratio is definitely right with this offer, even if you end up being wrong.
The Dortmund odds of around 1.80 were high enough to encourage me to bet on Borussia right away.
St. Pauli vs Dortmund match analysis:
The clash between St. Pauli and Dortmund presents the Kiezkickers with a real mammoth task. As clear underdogs, the Hamburg side’s main priority will be to keep the game open for as long as possible and hope for a minor football miracle.
Any points gained would be a huge success at the start. However, the statistics clearly favor Borussia: Dortmund has won its last ten opening games in a row – a Bundesliga record.
This is another reason why the visitors are expected to take control right from the start.
The difference in class was already evident in the previous season. Dortmund won 2-0 under Niko Kovac and gave St. Pauli hardly any breathing space. The hosts only managed one shot on goal and achieved an xG value of 0.41.
At the same time, BVB created four big chances and were particularly dangerous through Serhou Guirassy. Dortmund should once again be clearly superior, especially in attack.
St. Pauli form check
St. Pauli has secured its place in the Bundesliga – 14th place was definitely a success given the departure of Fabian Hürzeler and one of the weakest squads in the top flight.
Coach Alexander Blessin is staying on, but things are looking exciting in attack: with Guilavogui, Saad and Eggestein, three important attackers are leaving.
New signings Pereira Lage, Hountondji and Jones bring experience and potential, but they need to hit the ground running.
St. Pauli was already solid defensively, but if the goal ratio of 0.82 per game continues to fall, it could get dangerous.
Dortmund form check
Dortmund has found exactly the right man on the sidelines in Niko Kovac. After a weak start to the season, he not only got BVB back on track, but even into the top four.
The Black and Yellows have taken advantage of this upswing and signed an exciting talent in Jobe Bellingham – Jude’s brother also wants to shine in yellow and black.
Tactically, Kovac has successfully relied on a back three, which gives the defense stability. Despite a shortened preparation period due to participation in the Club World Cup, the squad is deep enough to start the new season strongly.
