France – Iceland Tip World Cup Qualifier, Group D, Matchday 6, 09.09.2025 at 8:45 p.m.
Nothing has been decided yet in Group D of the World Cup qualifiers. However, the starting position is clear. While Azerbaijan remains the underdog, France is the favorite to win the group and qualify for the World Cup. Iceland and Ukraine are likely to battle it out for second place.
Accordingly, I see the French as having clear advantages in my France vs. Iceland prediction, especially since the Icelandic defense has been anything but solid in recent months, with clear defeats against Kosovo (1-3), Wales (1-4), and Turkey (2-4).
The bet “France over 2.5 goals” fits these statistics perfectly and offers solid odds of around 1.50 at Interwetten. Those who aim higher and bet on “FRA over 3.5 goals” will receive odds of 2.10. However, this is already in the range of a medium-risk bet.
Why this tip?
- FRA has scored a total of 10 goals in its last 4 games
- Iceland has only kept a clean sheet once in its last 6 games
- ISL has conceded 3 goals against Kosovo, Turkey, and Wales
France vs. Iceland AI predictions:
When I open my 9th grade history book, I find the quote: “Don’t ask what you can do for ChatGPT, but what ChatGPT can do for you.” No sooner said than done. And now we have a France vs. Iceland AI prediction – with three handy betting alternatives.
In my opinion, ChatGPT goes a step too far with the high-risk bet. “France to win with a -4 handicap” does offer great odds of around 5.40 at bookmaker VBET.
But even if we assume that Iceland won’t score, France would have to score 5 goals in this case. It’s not unrealistic, but it is quite unlikely.
Predicted chance of winning:
| France to win |
Draw |
Iceland to win |
| 87% |
10% |
3% |
The medium-risk selection brings us the classic “both teams to score.” Here, too, I’m gritting my teeth a little, even though bookmakers with a German license are offering odds of 2.40. After all, Iceland has only failed to score once in its last 11 games.
For low risk, the AI suggests the combination bet “France to win & under 4.5 goals” at odds of around 1.50. I can live with that, as I don’t expect France to score more than 4 goals.
What you need to consider when betting on France vs. Iceland
- France has only drawn once (after 90 minutes) in its last 14 games.
- Iceland has only drawn once since October 2023.
- The French have never lost to Iceland so far (11W, 4D).
- After 15 previous head-to-head matches, the goal difference is 42:12 in France’s favor.
- The French won their last home game against Iceland 4-0 (in the 2019/2020 European Championship qualifiers).
