Leverkusen – Gladbach Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 4 on Sunday, 09/21/2025 at 5:30 PM
On Matchday 4 of the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach will face each other in the eagerly awaited Rhine derby. The Werkself are looking to get back on track with a win. Gladbach would probably be happy with their first goal of the season.
In fact, in my Leverkusen Gladbach prediction, I don’t expect Gladbach’s crisis to end and, with the combination bet “Leverkusen win & over 1.5 goals” at Bet-at-home at odds of around 1.75, I’m aiming for three points for B04.
At the moment, Borussia Gladbach simply has too much to deal with internally to be able to cause an upset at the BayArena.
Although I see Leverkusen ahead of BMG, I don’t expect any fireworks from the factory club. It’s no coincidence that Bayer have only picked up four points from their first three Bundesliga games and recently suffered a 2-2 draw against Copenhagen in the Champions League.
Bayer are in the midst of a period of upheaval and will need time to stabilize under Kasper Hjulmand. In my opinion, however, Gladbach are the right opponents to build on at the right time.
Leverkusen – Gladbach Prediction & Bets
Alternative tips can never hurt, of course, so here are three more considerations.
Bayer are unbeaten against Gladbach in eleven games, winning nine times. Given Gladbach’s crisis, another home win seems extremely likely. The odds at Interwetten (including the Interwetten bonus) are 1.60 and are playable even without any additional bonuses.
Goals are also guaranteed on Sunday. In the last ten direct duels, an average of 3.6 goals were scored. With Leverkusen’s offensive power and Gladbach’s shaky defense, the Leverkusen Gladbach prediction “Over 2.5 goals in the game” seems obvious to me. The odds are around 1.50.
Patrik Schick is also in the spotlight. The Czech striker has already scored three goals this season and is once again exceeding his expected goals. “Schick to score” at around 1.70 is therefore an extremely plausible bet.
What you need to know about Leverkusen vs. Gladbach betting
- Statistically, there are some notable anomalies ahead of the clash between Leverkusen and Gladbach. Leverkusen is one of the fairest teams in the league, committing an average of only 9.7 fouls per game, yet it is also the team with the most red cards this season (two).
- Gladbach, on the other hand, shows a striking discrepancy between expectations and reality: despite having the fourth-lowest expected goals against (xGA) value of just 3.3 goals conceded, the Foals have already conceded five goals.
- The head-to-head record also speaks for itself. Leverkusen is unbeaten in eleven competitive games against Gladbach, with nine wins and two draws. During this period, the Foals scored an average of only 1.09 goals per game, but conceded 2.55.
- Once again, the focus is on Patrik Schick. The Czech striker has already scored three times this season – from chances worth 2.10 xG. Last season, he was one of the biggest overperformers in Europe: 21 goals from just 12.66 xG underlined his efficiency and clinical finishing in front of goal.
Leverkusen – Gladbach: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI model is of course ready to go and presents its very own Leverkusen Gladbach AI prediction here.
Leverkusen is the clear favorite going into its home game against Gladbach – and the numbers underscore that. The Rhinelanders are unbeaten against the Foals in eleven games, winning nine times.
A bold but attractive option is therefore “Leverkusen to win with an Asian handicap of -1.0” – with a clear home win, Winamax Sportsbook is offering odds of around 1.85.
At the same time, the statistics suggest that we will see goals from both sides. In four of the last eight encounters, both teams scored, and Gladbach is likely to create chances despite its crisis. “Both teams to score” is available at a solid 1.55.
It’s also worth taking a look at individual players: Alejandro Grimaldo recently scored two free kick goals against Frankfurt. With his precision from set pieces and Gladbach’s weakness at dead balls, “Grimaldo to score” is an exciting bet with sufficient value (3.60).
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. Gladbach
After their Champions League appearance during the week, Bayer Leverkusen welcomes Borussia Mönchengladbach to the Bundesliga – don’t miss a minute of it on DAZN. The betting odds clearly favor the Werkself: a home win is priced at around 1.57.
It is noteworthy that Leverkusen has only started with such clear odds once this season – on the first matchday against Hoffenheim, then still under coach Erik ten Hag, and lost.
This time, the bookmakers are betting on an Asian handicap of -1.0. For bettors, this means that a win by two goals will result in a profit, while a narrow victory by one goal will only return the stake.
In the three league games so far, Leverkusen has only met this requirement once – in the recent 3-1 win against Eintracht Frankfurt. It was the debut of new coach Kasper Hjulmand, whose team achieved an xG value of 2.11.
The goal line for the upcoming match is set at 3.25. Data models predict an expected goal value of 3.21 xG. The probability that this mark will not be exceeded is therefore 53.6 percent.
Once again, all eyes are on Patrick Schick. The striker, who scored from the spot against Frankfurt, is considered the most likely goalscorer – not least because he takes penalties and plays in the attack of a clear favorite.
Leverkusen vs Gladbach Match Analysis:
The clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach at the BayArena promises to be an exciting Bundesliga encounter.
In their last meeting in January 2025, Leverkusen won 3-1. Florian Wirtz shone with two goals and an assist, but after his move to Liverpool FC in the summer, he will be missed by the hosts this time around.
While Leverkusen will be looking to continue their winning streak against Gladbach, the Foals travel with the clear goal of finally fighting back against a club in transition.
The match in August 2021 remains a memorable one, when Leverkusen rolled over Gladbach 4-0. Historically, the record speaks in favor of the Werkself, although both teams have scored in four of the last eight encounters – a detail that is also interesting for you.
There have also often been more than 2.5 goals, especially in games in Leverkusen. In the last ten encounters, both teams have scored an average of 3.6 goals per game.
Of the last eight encounters, Leverkusen has won five, two games ended in a draw, and Gladbach has won only once.
This confirms the trend of clear dominance by the Rhinelanders – even if occasional Gladbach outliers make for unpredictability. Another high-scoring duel therefore seems quite likely.
Leverkusen form check
Bayer 04 Leverkusen is experiencing a mixture of upheaval and trial by fire this season. After their historic double in 2023/24 and second place last year, the Werkself wanted to attack at the top again.
But after only the second matchday, coach Erik ten Hag had to leave, and his successor Kasper Hjulmand is now expected to bring stability and continuity.
Statistically, the picture is mixed. Leverkusen continues to impress offensively: the team scores an average of two goals per game, with an expected goal value of 1.72 xG only slightly below that – proof of their efficiency in front of goal.
Patrik Schick remains a key figure, while Alejandro Grimaldo poses a threat with set pieces, as he did most recently in the game against Frankfurt, which Leverkusen won 3-1 despite two red cards.
Defensively, however, the statistics reveal weaknesses. An average of two goals conceded per league game is too many for a top team, even if the opponents’ xG value of 1.52 shows that not all goals conceded were inevitable.
In addition, although the Werkself records over 570 ball actions per game, they remain too vulnerable when switching play.
For Hjulmand, the task is clear: to find the balance between Leverkusen’s attacking power and defensive solidity. If he succeeds, Bayer will remain a serious contender for titles in Germany and Europe this season.
Gladbach form check
Borussia Mönchengladbach is currently in a deep sporting crisis – both on the pitch and structurally.
After a weak start to the season, coach Gerardo Seoane was dismissed. He was replaced by Eugen Polanski as interim coach, who is tasked with stabilizing the team as quickly as possible.
The bare figures illustrate how dramatic the situation is: Gladbach currently ranks 16th in the Bundesliga table with just one point after three matchdays.
At the same time, they have yet to score a goal, while Gladbach generates around 1.72 xG per game – meaning chances worth almost two goals that remain unused.
Before this season, Gladbach had already had a disappointing season, finishing 10th in the Bundesliga.
Under Polanski, there is now a chance to at least limit the damage with a more defensively stable formation and greater efficiency in attack.
But the task at hand is clear: quickly pick up points, regain confidence, and prevent the club from getting caught up in the relegation battle.
