Mainz – Dortmund Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Saturday, 09/27/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
And that’s when it happened! Mainz ended their downward trend away at FCA by once again playing the better football, but this time they were rewarded for it.
In my Mainz Dortmund prediction, however, I’m siding with the away team on Matchday 5 – and quite clearly so.
This is because the absence of suspended midfield dynamo Dominik Kohr will have a massive impact on Mainz. And Borussia? They have their next Champions League match in their sights, but it’s not without reason that they haven’t lost a single competitive game in 2025/26…
I’ve already hinted at it, but to sum it up, there are several reasons why my Mainz Dortmund prediction makes sense, especially given the current odds.
For example, Borussia Dortmund is currently unbeaten in 12 Bundesliga games (10 wins, 2 draws) – the longest streak for BVB since April to October 2023, when they went 17 games without defeat.
In addition, BVB won the last match against Mainz 3-1 quite comfortably, and with DAZN streaming, you can also watch live when both teams take to the field again.
Mainz – Dortmund Prediction & Betting
Karim Adeyemi has been directly involved in four of BVB’s last six competitive goals, which is why there is no Borussia player I would prefer to him in the Bwin app!
In this context, we are referring to the bet that Adeyemi will score, which offers an excellent risk-reward ratio at odds of around 3.60. Given how he has been playing recently, the goal-scorer should pose plenty of threat in front of goal against FSV.
Incidentally, Dortmund recently went into the break with a lead in their ninth Bundesliga game in a row, which indirectly led me to my second betting decision: 1st goal & half-time lead for BVB at an attractive profit multiplier of around 2.77x.
What you need to know about Mainz vs. Dortmund betting
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- Mainz has the fewest passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the league with 7.77 – their intense pressing gives FSV the third-best defense after Bayern and Dortmund.
- Since Niko Kovac took over at Dortmund, BVB have picked up 45 Bundesliga points – only Bayern (48) have more – and scored an average of 2.23 goals per game.
- In five of Dortmund’s last six away games, both teams scored, with an average of 4.67 goals – this selection also won five of the last six direct duels.Serhou Guirassy has the highest xG value in the Bundesliga at 4.51, but has scored only four goals – Harry Kane leads the scoring charts with eight goals.
Mainz – Dortmund: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Mainz BVB AI prediction has calculated a value of 3.04 xG in terms of the possible number of goals. From this, our AI model concludes various types of bets that are worth converting into various soccer bets with both old and new sports betting providers.Exactly 3 goals is the riskiest betting suggestion, but it is linked to a high profit multiplier. If, for example, the game ends 1:2 for BVB, you can currently get odds of 3.75 at Interwetten.
The selection Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score is also recommended by our AI model, even if the corresponding odds of around 1.78 prevent me from implementing this suggestion.
I don’t see enough value here to be really excited about it – even if 11 of Borussia’s 17 Bundesliga away games last season fulfilled both conditions equally.
The best odds for Mainz vs. Dortmund
Mainz welcomes Dortmund – a duel that promises high tension on the pitch and is really exciting on the betting slip.
Various bookmakers, led by Bet365 and Bet-at-home, are offering the most interesting odds: 3.35 for a home win for Mainz, 3.85 for a draw, and 2.10 if BVB prevails away from home.
Particularly exciting: Mainz could surprise with their home strength and clever counterattacks, while Dortmund, as favorites, will want to control the game.
For all sports betting fans, this means a perfect opportunity to play value tips or include the underdog on their betting slip.
Excitement and odds power in one – that’s what makes soccer betting really fun.
Mainz vs. Dortmund match analysis:
I expect an intense duel in which Mainz 05 will apply early pressure as usual. The Rheinhessen are the team with the most high ball wins (41) and the most pressing sequences (64) this season, just ahead of BVB.
Borussia Dortmund will therefore have to be on their guard, as Mainz can quickly gain possession through their aggressive pressing and take control of the game.
At the same time, Niko Kovac brings a wealth of experience and stability to the table – he is approaching his 200th Bundesliga game as a coach and has lost only one of his last 13 competitive games against Mainz (10 wins, 2 draws).
It will undoubtedly be an exciting encounter, with Mainz looking to keep the tempo high and Dortmund looking to play to their strengths in possession.
Incidentally, Kovac also has the best points record in the Bundesliga with BVB (2.11 per game), which makes me even more optimistic in my Mainz Dortmund prediction that the away team will prevail in the end.
Mainz form check
Mainz is expected to rely on a three-man defense again, with Danny da Costa and Andreas Hanche-Olsen as regulars, which is also expected against Borussia Dortmund. Defensive stability will be crucial to contain the strong BVB.
Dominik Kohr is suspended after his red card against Augsburg, so Bell will have to fill the gap.
Jae-Sung Lee is still out with thigh problems, allowing Arnaud Nordin and Paul Nebel to support the offense around Nelson Weiper or Armindo Sieb.
In midfield, Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri are expected to form the central duo, while Benedict Hollerbach’s availability is still uncertain.
Dortmund form check
Borussia Dortmund remains on the winning track despite injury concerns and has been successful in its last few games.
However, the absences of Emre Can, Niklas Süle, and Julien Duranville pose challenges for the team, especially in defense.
Coach Niko Kovač will have to resort to alternatives to ensure stability while maintaining offensive power.
A positive factor for the Mainz BVB tip is the return of Fábio Silva to training, whose gradual integration promises to strengthen the attack. Anselmino could also take his place on the bench again after his first substitute appearance.
Overall, Dortmund is showing flexibility and fighting spirit despite injuries, which puts the team in a good position for upcoming tasks such as the duel against RB Leipzig.
