AS Roma – Leverkusen betting tip
Roma have reached the semi-finals of a major European competition for the fourth time in a row, a feat previously only achieved by Real Madrid.
But after watching the Giallorossi’s performance in Serie A last weekend, I’m increasingly getting the impression that the Werkself will set the course for the Europa League final in today’s first leg.
According to my AS Roma Leverkusen tip, the possession-oriented soccer of the Rhinelanders is certainly capable of penning the Italians into their own third of the pitch for 90 minutes in the dreaded Olimpico
I strongly expect the Italians to focus on defending and let the Werkself take control of the game. As a result, it could develop into a similarly tough struggle as in the Rhinelander’s quarter-final first leg against West Ham United a few weeks ago.
Whether there will be many or few goals will depend on the goalkeeper’s form on the day and the luck or bad luck of the B04 offense. However, the xG value of the Bundesliga team should be high in any case!
Finally, in my AS Roma Leverkusen prediction, given the odds of the bookies, I tend to use a tested sports betting app for a tip that would put an end to a long EL success series of the Romans in their own stadium
The bookmaker forecast
In my opinion, it is not completely insignificant that the Werkself were able to regenerate for an extra day.
It should also not be neglected that the Merkur Bets app – like that of all other competitors – favors the Rhinelanders.
A bold decision at first glance given the Romans’ seemingly endless run of success in this competition, which I will come to in more detail in a moment.
For now, you can remember that a B04 win promises odds of around 2.10, while the other two outcomes are almost the same payout at 3.50 each as part of a classic 1X2 bet
Analysis: AS Roma vs Leverkusen
It has become much more difficult for Leverkusen to win games in the second half of the season. But even if they “only” managed a draw against Stuttgart last Saturday, they are still usually the better team in terms of play.
And since the upcoming clash against the Italians is far more important than the recent 2:2 draw against the Swabians in the already decided Bundesliga season, I expect another significant improvement in performance on Thursday.
Especially as they seem to be saving their best performances for this competition! After all, Bayer have remained unbeaten in all of their 10 Europa League matches this season (8 wins, 2 draws).
Incidentally, the only previous teams to make it from the group stage to the final unbeaten are Chelsea in the 2018/19 season, Villarreal in the 2020/21 season and Eintracht Frankfurt in the 2021/22 season.
The special thing about them? They all ended up lifting the trophy too!
Roma may have won 13 of their first 17 competitive games under Daniele de Rossi, but this wave of success should not hide the fact that the Giallorossi are more results-oriented and seem to have reinvented soccer less than they did on the banks of the Rhine, for example.
This became abundantly clear to me last weekend in Serie A, when the capital city side almost begged for a goal in the first period of the “Derby del Sole”.
If Roma couldn’t hold their own in midfield against a weak Napoli (2:2), I reckon the next game on Thursday will be a one-goal game
Odds analysis
I showed good instinct last weekend in my Napoli AS Roma betting tip with the decision to place a double chance X2 bet.
I’m hoping for something similar from my choice to trust Leverkusen to score at least two goals.
With the exception of the 1:1 draw against West Ham in the quarter-final second leg and the 1:0 win against Qarabag in the group stage, B04 have always scored at least twice in this Europa League season.
With the great combined odds of 2.45, I’m happy to speculate that the Romans’ defensive dam will break at least twice in the course of the match
Roma are almost unbeatable at the Olimpico!
The Rhinelanders’ streak of not having lost a competitive match in the 2023/24 season will be put to the test on Thursday, that much is certain.
After all, terms like “Roma” and “home defeat” do not go very well together in this competition.
The team, now managed by Daniele de Rossi, have only lost one of their last 25 home games in the Europa League and have even won 10 of their last 11 games (1 draw).
Also interesting: Only Villarreal (35), Sevilla (28) and Sporting CP (25) have celebrated more EL home wins than the Italians (24).
Leverkusen: It doesn’t get any better than “Wirtz”
Roma and Bayer Leverkusen meet for the second time in a row in the semi-finals of the Europa League. Last season, the Giallorossi qualified for the final with an aggregate score of 1-0 before losing to Sevilla FC on penalties.
However, this also provides additional motivation. As well as the fact that the Rhinelanders have made significant progress since then, Xabi Alonso can use this as an argument in his team talk to get his boys fired up once again!
Especially as the memories of the home game in Leverkusen, when the Romans ran the clock down with endless time-wasting, are probably still fresh in some of their minds.
As I said, if Roma couldn’t gain control of the ball in midfield against Napoli, it will be difficult to secure a higher share of possession against arguably the best central axis in Europe.
A very special “cog” in Xabi Alonso’s wheel is also our hope for a successful Euro 2024 for the DFB squad.
No player has created more goalscoring chances from play in the Europa League this season than Florian Wirtz (24)
The 20-year-old – whose birthday is only after this game – has now scored 11 goals in this competition, more than any other player under the age of 21 since the competition was restructured in the 2009/10 season
On the other hand, I would ignore all goal bets on the home side on Thursday. However, I can’t hide the fact that Romelu Lukaku has a record in this competition that is out of this world.
The Belgian has scored seven goals in nine appearances against German teams in major European competitions – including one against Bayer Leverkusen in August 2020.
He has only scored more often against Swiss teams (8 goals). His only previous appearance in a Europa League semi-final saw him score twice for Inter Milan against Shakhtar Donetsk in August 2020
My AS Roma Leverkusen tip:
Finally, I would recommend the current Interwetten free bet to put the result bet I have listed below to the test without any risk.
But regardless of the exact final result, it should be the Rhinelanders who clearly dominate the game and will keep the pace high throughout the 90 minutes.
How quickly the Romans’ rearguard will be overwhelmed will depend on various factors, but after their performance against Napoli, I can’t imagine it will be too long before Alonso’s side take the lead.
My tip: Victory Leverkusen & Over 1.5 goals
