Mainz – Leverkusen Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 7 on Saturday, 10/18/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
You know, firing a coach after only two match days has never happened in the Bundesliga before and, at first glance, doesn’t seem like the right course of action to take.
However, given the positive developments since then, I can’t blame the B04 board. Under coach Kasper Hjulmand, the Werkself has been undefeated in six competitive games since his surprise appointment.
My Mainz Leverkusen tip at a verified sports betting provider is therefore, not without reason, an away win for the resurgent Rhinelanders.
On the one hand, because the Leverkusen odds are above average, and on the other, because the Nullfünfer, with an average of 1.7 goals conceded per game, simply don’t seem to be able to keep a clean sheet.
If Mainz’s general sporting decline is not enough of an argument for my Mainz Leverkusen tip, then take a look at the direct comparison.
FSV have lost five of their last seven Bundesliga home games against Leverkusen and have been winless in their last three games.
However, Mainz has never had a series of four consecutive winless home games against the Werkself in the Bundesliga.
Mainz – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
B04 Over 1.5 goals is a Mainz Leverkusen tip that has been on my mind for a few days and has finally found its way onto my betting slip.
Although they won’t be winning the championship, Leverkusen is currently one of the best offensive teams in the Bundesliga and will rely on this strength to secure all three points.
After all, the Werkself scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and has even created the second-most clear scoring chances in the league after Bayern Munich.
That’s why the special bet Leverkusen to score in both halves, which is also available to you at Betano Germany, is at the top of my list at odds of around 3.10.
What you need to consider when betting on Mainz vs. Leverkusen
- Only 33% of Mainz’s games this season have ended with three or more goals – the lowest percentage in the Bundesliga.
- Only Bayern Munich (3.23 xGA) and Borussia Dortmund (5.21 xGA) have a lower expected goals against (xGA) than Leverkusen (6.06 xGA) after six matchdays.
- This is Leverkusen’s fifth away game in the competition this season, and they have been the favorites in all five games, despite a bumpy start.
- Patrick Schick’s value of 0.37 xG per shot for Leverkusen is the highest average of any player in the Bundesliga with at least five shots on goal after six games.
Mainz – Leverkusen: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Mainz Leverkusen AI prediction has not only determined a possible final score (1:3), but also has potential candidates for a successful goalscorer bet in store for you.
Leverkusen’s Christian Kofane recently scored his first Bundesliga goal at the age of 19 years and 70 days and, according to our AI, could even have a very special influence on the course of the game.
In any case, I have no objections to the suggestion that Kofane will score. Especially since this goal bet, if successful, comes with a nice profit multiplier of around 3.7x thanks to the odds boost.
Leverkusen, incidentally, is unbeaten in 36 Bundesliga away games and now faces a team that has lost its first three home games of a season without scoring a goal for the second time in Bundesliga history.
Therefore, I can certainly understand why our AI wants to go a little further out on a limb than I do with its suggestion of a Leverkusen win with HC -1.
I’m not exactly thrilled about this recommendation, but the Mainz Leverkusen odds of around 4.65 being traded on the markets are by no means bad.
The best odds for Mainz vs. Leverkusen
Mainz welcomes Leverkusen – a duel in which precision meets fighting spirit and every action can be decisive. Will the Rheinhessen secure their first home points of the season?
The best Mainz Leverkusen odds are currently available from Oddset and Betano: 2.95 for a Mainz home win, 3.50 for a draw, and 2.45 if Leverkusen takes the points.
Mainz relies on passion, home advantage, and quick transitions, while Leverkusen counters with creativity, pace, and offensive pressure.
For betting enthusiasts, this means that there is plenty of value to be found between the underdog odds and the favorite’s power – and that is exactly what makes this game so exciting for betting.
Mainz vs Leverkusen match analysis:
Mainz will try to take control with aggressive pressing and force mistakes in the Leverkusen defense.
The 05ers are one of the most efficient teams in the league when it comes to provoking inaccurate passes, missed attempts, or sloppy dribbling by their opponents in dangerous areas.
However, Mainz has so far failed to create enough really good chances from these ball wins – with only 1.67 big chances per game, they are well below the Bundesliga average of 2.44.
To be successful against Leverkusen, Mainz will need to increase their effectiveness in front of goal.
At the same time, high pressing leaves space for quick counterattacks, and this is where Leverkusen is extremely dangerous. The Werkself has already taken eleven shots on counterattacks, scoring two goals.
The striker I mentioned earlier, Christian Kofane, has scored in the last two games and has the speed to outplay Mainz’s high defensive line (51.15 m average height).
Henriksen will therefore have to be pragmatic if Mainz wants to get a point or more.
Mainz form check
After six Bundesliga games, Mainz are deep in the relegation zone, with only one win from their first games – a stark contrast to last year, when the 05ers finished sixth and qualified for the Conference League.
The 4-0 defeat to Hamburg before the international break highlighted the problems under coach Bo Henriksen.
Mainz shows a certain amount of ball control, but the offense is ineffective: only 17 of 80 shots on goal have found their target so far. In addition, Mainz has yet to record a Bundesliga win after a Conference League game this season.
With upcoming tasks, including a home game against Zrinjski Mostar and an away game in Stuttgart, the situation threatens to worsen.
A tactical change is urgently needed to prevent the disappointing season from escalating further.
Leverkusen form check
Leverkusen went into the international break in a solid fifth place – a respectable result, especially after a weak start to the season and the dismissal of Erik ten Hag.
The 2-0 win against Union Berlin showed the breadth and depth of Kasper Hjulmand’s squad. Young Christian Kofane took advantage of a defensive error early on and linked up well with his strike partner Ernest Poku.
Accordingly, I remain optimistic that B04 will continue to perform well after the break!
Under Hjulmand, Leverkusen also seems to have become more stable: In the last four league games, the Werkself have conceded only three goals and have been unbeaten in all competitions since August 23.
The defensive work, especially by players like Malik Tillman, makes the team more compact, and with increasing familiarity, the positive form should continue.
