Union Berlin – Freiburg Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 9 on Saturday, 01.11.2025 at 3:30 p.m.
While draw bets are generally considered risky and usually come with a bookie bonus such as the current Betano promotional voucher, such caution may well be unnecessary in this case.
Ahead of the clash between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg, many experts are finding it difficult to identify any decisive qualitative differences between the two opponents.
The best betting providers see the Köpenick hosts as slight favorites, while our in-house AI even gives the visitors a narrow edge.
The bottom line is that there seems to be a lot to suggest a fair distribution of points, which is why my Union Berlin vs. Freiburg prediction also recommends the aforementioned draw.
If the artificial intelligence’s assessment is anything to go by, Union Berlin must fear that last week’s fate will now be repeated on home turf.
After losing 1-0 in Bremen, Union Berlin had to let a former direct rival pass them, and now SC Freiburg, who are one place below them in the table, are also preparing to overtake them.
However, from the visitors’ point of view, a real first is necessary for the hoped-for jump in the table. Both in the 2nd division and in the Bundesliga, the Breisgauers have so far tried in vain to take all three points from the Alte Försterei (4D, 4L).
Union Berlin – Freiburg Prediction & Bets
When Union Berlin plays, the number of goals tends to be within a narrow range, with rare exceptions. However, as if that weren’t enough, there are also some defensive issues at the moment, so I’m convinced that Saturday’s game will not end in a goalless draw.
The resulting Union Freiburg tip, “Both teams to score,” turns out to be quite worthwhile when you take a look at the relevant betting apps. Odds of around 1.80 seem absolutely fine for “BTS” here.
When it comes to a potential goalscorer, my gut feeling leads me to odds of around 3.40 for Andrej Ilic from Union. On the one hand, he has been waiting for a goal for eight games, but on the other hand, he was the only invigorating element in Berlin’s offense recently.
Finally, the 1:1 result tip also made it onto my betting slip at odds of 5.50—the Ironers already had good experiences with this result in the DFB Cup against Arminia Bielefeld during the week.
What you need to know about Union Berlin vs. Freiburg betting
- SC Freiburg have won only two of their 12 Bundesliga games against 1. FC Union Berlin (4D 6L) – among the current Bundesliga clubs, they have celebrated fewer Bundesliga victories against no other club (2 each against St. Pauli & Heidenheim).
- Union have yet to lose any of their six Bundesliga games against Freiburg at home (3W 3D) – they have played more Bundesliga home games against no other club and remain unbeaten.
- With 10 points after eight games, Union Berlin is having its third-worst Bundesliga season at this point in time – only in 2019/20 (7) and 2023/24 (6) did they have fewer points after eight games.
- With nine points after eight games, SC Freiburg is having its worst Bundesliga season in five years (only 6 points in 2020/21). In the last four seasons, the Breisgauers always had at least 13 points at this stage.
Union Berlin – Freiburg: AI tip & odds analysis
In line with my Union Freiburg predictions, the AI is also expecting a low-scoring affair at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. In no other match on the 9th matchday of the Bundesliga does the artificial intelligence predict fewer goals.
Since Union only scores in 50% of its games and Freiburg has the second fewest shots on goal of all first division teams, the recommended under 2.5 goals is indeed a good idea – a tip that promises a payout of 1.7 times the bet stake if successful.
The similarities don’t end there with the next Union Berlin Freiburg AI tip. With a half-time/full-time score of draw/draw, the odds are set even more consistently for a point split.
If, after both halves, there are ultimately no payable differences between the two teams, this is rewarded by online betting providers with odds of around 4.50.
When it comes to the expected goals, artificial intelligence is even a little more cautious. Although the xGoal value theoretically gives both teams the chance to celebrate a goal, our model ultimately recommends a modest 0-0.
Compared to my predicted 1-1, the payout in this case would exactly double. At the top, the bookies are offering a smooth 11.0 for a scoreless draw.
The best odds for Union Berlin vs. Freiburg
I have pointed out several times that there are hardly any differences in the odds between the two teams. However, the Union Freiburg odds have shifted slightly in favor of the home team at the betting providers in recent days.
Although Union Berlin had to play a full 120 minutes in the DFB Cup – unlike Freiburg, who won in Düsseldorf – a home win now seems a tad more likely with odds of 2.55.
Since an away win brings odds of around 2.80, the differences are still in the range of a few tenths.
Unsurprisingly, this also has a direct impact on the odds for a draw. With values between 3.20 and 3.30, the winnings for a draw here are slightly lower than in the eight other matches scheduled for the 9th Bundesliga matchday.
Union Berlin vs Freiburg match analysis:
Union Berlin is one point ahead of Freiburg going into this game. A win could put both teams within reach of European places and would be a big motivational boost ahead of a busy autumn.
Steffen Baumgart’s team pursues a more passive defensive strategy than other Bundesliga teams. Union allows 17.35 passes per defensive action (PPDA), ranking second in the league.
The deep defensive structure also means that Union Berlin is unlikely to get the ball in dangerous areas, as evidenced by the field inclination of 40.57.
Therefore, it is also to be expected that Freiburg will have more possession, as they have in their last seven games against Union Berlin, with an average possession rate of 65%.
Union, meanwhile, will try to take advantage of counterattacking opportunities. Two of Union’s eleven league goals this season have come from counterattacks. Baumgart’s team has also scored four goals from set pieces, so the visitors will need to be particularly alert in such situations.
Freiburg is not used to patient attacking play, so the duel with Union could prove difficult. Julian Schuster wants his players to play as directly as possible, but the hosts’ compact structure and their reluctance to press could make this difficult. It therefore promises to be an exciting tactical battle.
Union Berlin form check
Union Berlin is an extremely clever team when it comes to making the most of scoring opportunities.
Although Union Berlin has the lowest possession percentage in the league at 33.5%, their defensive structure is relatively solid. Only six teams concede more shots on goal per game than the hosts, who allow 15.
Currently sitting in 10th place in the Bundesliga, Saturday’s game against Werder Bremen ended in a narrow 1-0 defeat.
But Union has already managed to score more than one goal in four games – in the other four games, the team failed to score at all.
Seven Bundesliga teams have had fewer shots on goal than Union, but only one player, Andrej Ilic (3.3), has scored more than 1.7 xG (expected goals) in the league so far.
If Steffen Baumgart’s team does not start taking more risks in attack, it risks being condemned to another season of fighting against relegation.
Freiburg Form Check
Freiburg’s unbeaten run ended with a 2-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. Freiburg currently sits in 11th place after winning just one of its last six games.
With 10.62, Freiburg ranks second to last in both shots on goal per game and expected goals without penalties (xG), highlighting the team’s ongoing struggles to create clear scoring opportunities.
Freiburg likes to play direct and has delivered an impressive 62 throw-ins into the opponent’s penalty area – more than twice as many as Mainz, the second-placed team.
In general, Freiburg has underperformed offensively. The inability to capitalize on set pieces is evident, with only 1.74 xG coming from set pieces.
Freiburg has not won any of its three league games played after a cup game during the week. The Breisgauers are therefore in danger of choking on the victory celebrated in Düsseldorf.
