Hoffenheim – Augsburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 12 on Saturday, 29.11.2025 at 15:30 CET
Sandro Wagner and his Fuggerstädter scored three important big points in the relegation battle last week. But what about Saturday? Is it worth combining an odds boost with a Hoffenheim Augsburg bet on the visitors?
In my eyes, not at all – quite the opposite! In fact, I would prefer to rely on the accurate TSG here, as they have to deal with a vulnerable defence that has the second-highest xGA value in the Bundesliga.
The Kraichgau team’s style of play is simply more sophisticated, and in the last four Bundesliga home games against FCA, ten of twelve points have gone to them anyway (3 wins, 1 draw).
By the way, if Hoffenheim’s odds for a home treble aren’t high enough for you, you can also switch to “home win despite conceding a goal” – that’s exactly what our AI data model speculates on.
The average Hoffenheim odds for a home win of about 1.70 do not seem particularly high at first, but against the background of the direct comparison they seem almost gigantic! Because the Kraichgau team has always set the tone in direct duels so far.
After all, TSG have won as many Bundesliga games against FC Augsburg as against FC Augsburg (15 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats).
In addition, the blue and whites have lost only one of their 14 Bundesliga home games against FCA – 4-2 in December 2019. That was quite a long time ago.
Hoffenheim – Augsburg Prediction & Betting
Over 2.5 goals & both goals is a really promising Hoffenheim Augsburg tip at odds of around 1.87.
After all, games of the Kraichgau team are characterised by a high degree of offensive potential and at the same time by noticeable defensive weaknesses.
Nevertheless, I would only recommend this suggestion to you if you don’t want to commit to a winner. Because for my part, I strongly expect a home win!
In this context, I can tell you directly the second selection that I have my eye on and that you can also choose from any good football betting provider – TSG: Over 2.5 goals at odds around 2.67.
A hat-trick from Hoffenheim is well within the realm of possibility. They have already achieved this feat on four of the last five matchdays – even against the strong Leipzig (3-1). So why not against FCA?
What you need to consider when betting on Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
- Hoffenheim have picked up 13 points from their last five games and are now level with Bayern. In addition, Hoffenheim are unbeaten in five home games against Augsburg (4 wins).
- Augsburg has the second-worst xGA (Expected Goals Against) value in the Bundesliga (21.13) and concedes an average of 2.18 goals per game (second most in the league).
- Andrej Kramaric and Fisnik Asllani (Hoffenheim) are the favourites to score. The two players have scored a combined eight goals this Bundesliga season.
- Hoffenheim is the most aggressive pressing team in the league (9.9 PPDA, 14 pressing sequences per game). Midfielder Wouter Burger led 23 tackles in the 2025/26 season.
Hoffenheim – Augsburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Grischa Prömel is the selection that our Hoffenheim Augsburg AI prediction prefers to any other player bet – even one on Kramaric.
Because Prömel is playing more and more into the spotlight and scores 0.87 goals per 90 minutes. In addition, he has an xG of 0.51 per 90 minutes – the second-highest value within the team.
In short: The midfielder of the Kraichgau team is a legitimate candidate for a goal bet on Saturday, especially since he radiates increasing danger and his odds of around 4.33 promise a decent payout.
Behind the selection Hoffenheim wins after falling behind, our AI sets an exclamation mark – as a clear warning.
Of course, it is a risk bet that is only suitable for brave sports betting fans, but has a disproportionately high probability of occurrence for this scenario.
A look at the data explains why. Hoffenheim have picked up the most points in the league this Bundesliga season after coming from behind (10), while the Fuggerstädter (8) have squandered the second most points after taking the lead for a while.
The best odds for Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
Now let’s take a fresh look at the Hoffenheim Augsburg odds – the bookmakers have drawn a pretty clear, but not completely rigid picture here.
A home win for the Kraichgau team is rated 1.70. This clearly signals that the bookmakers consider Hoffenheim to be the more structured, more complete team.
Home strength, offensive drive and the individually stronger axes are visibly reflected in this assessment.
The draw is 4.10 – a rate that indicates that an even game is not ruled out, but remains a marginal phenomenon in terms of expectations.
For tie tipsters, this is an area that almost smells of speculative value.
Augsburg’s away win is traded at 4.40. The bookies do not trust FCA by any means, but the difference in quality and consistency is clearly priced in.
The bottom line is that it creates a market that sees Hoffenheim quite clearly ahead, but leaves enough nuance open to justify different betting approaches – depending on how much risk you are willing to take!
Hoffenheim vs Augsburg Match Analysis:
Hoffenheim will take command from the first moment. With their strong xG value and high creativity in the final third, Ilzer’s team is likely to put Augsburg under constant pressure early on.
The visitors are shaky defensively anyway, their second-worst xGA in the league speaks volumes – and that’s exactly what we’ll see: Hoffenheim combines, repeatedly gets into the space between the lines and forces Augsburg deep into their own box.
The game could develop into a pure siege at times, with Hoffenheim’s wings and half-spaces in particular running hot.
Augsburg won’t go down completely – they score regularly away from home – but there shouldn’t be much relief. Instead, Wagner’s team is likely to try to break Hoffenheim’s rhythm with early and many fouls.
The high number of yellow cards fits perfectly into this picture. At the same time, both teams will continue their high pressing.
This opens up space for fast players and ensures that long balls behind the back line repeatedly lead to dangerous scenes.
In the end, however, Hoffenheim will have the clearer style of play, more control and more penetration – a game in which they gradually approach their deserved success as the pressure grows.
Hoffenheim form check
Hoffenheim is currently one of the hottest teams in the league. Four wins and one draw from the last five games clearly show you how stable the team is.
Especially the recent home form – two Bundesliga home wins in a row – indicates that they have finally found a basis to build on under Ilzer.
In terms of play, the whole thing seems very determined: High intensity in pressing, courageous pushing forward, and the team does not let itself be disturbed by deficits.
Nevertheless, you can also see the typical construction site: Not a single clean sheet in the PreZero Arena and too many goals conceded – that speaks for the fact that Hoffenheim keep offering space despite their strong form.
Offensively, on the other hand, things are much smoother: good xG level, strong efficiency in finishing and a team that can turn games around late.
The bottom line is that Hoffenheim are clearly on an upward trend, energetic, aggressive, but still not completely stable in their own penalty area.
Augsburg Form Check
Augsburg looked much more stable against HSV, even if their away form looked rather poor recently with four games without a win.
However, the close 1-0 win against Hamburg could have been a small turning point – first clean sheet of the season, more clarity in their own penalty area and a bit of calm in the gam again. Overall, the approach remains clear: little possession, but high intensity, early run-up and immediate switching as soon as opportunities arise.
Despite the aggressive style, the team remains defensively vulnerable. The second-highest xGA value in the Bundesliga at 21.13 shows you that Augsburg always allows a lot, especially through fast, direct actions of the opponents.
At the same time, however, the team is one of the most effective counter-attacking teams in the league: Few big chances, but extremely cleanly played and heavily converted.
It is precisely this mixture of pressing pressure and efficiency that makes Augsburg dangerous at the moment – but also difficult to assess because the balance between offensive move and defensive risk is not yet complete.
FCA should be able to stay in the league in the long term, but against a team with secret European ambitions like Hoffenheim, it should not be quite enough at the moment!
