Bayern – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 12 on Saturday, 29.11.2025 at 15:30 CET
Bayern have now also suffered their first defeat after the first draw of the season. How will Vincent Kompany’s team present itself to the home fans next Saturday after the setback in London?
According to my Bayern St. Pauli tip – which I will also refine with an odds boost – victorious! However, they will probably not roll over the Kiezkicker with half a dozen goals.
The Boys in Brown have long since left the road to victory, but in none of their last four away games – and that against some well-known opponents – have they conceded more than a maximum of two goals.
I expect Bayern to win to nil, but one thing you should definitely keep in mind: set-pieces could have a significant impact on this duel.
FC Bayern Munich have conceded a whopping 75% of their goals from set-pieces this Bundesliga season (6 out of 8) – the highest percentage in the league.
FC St. Pauli, on the other hand, scores 56% of its goals from stationary balls (5 of 9) and is only surpassed by SC Freiburg in this category.
However, I am sure that Vincent Kompany will have worked massively on this construction site, especially after the events in London.
Bundesliga home games of the Munich team delivered an average of a whopping 4.83 goals per game – an extremely high value. Nevertheless, in my Bayern St. Pauli AI forecast, I don’t assume that it will hit so hard again this time.
Bayern: Under 3.5 goals at odds around 1.67 I take with me a good feeling. The Kiezkicker will let themselves fall deep and make life difficult for the record champions precisely through this approach.
Half-time/final score 1/1 at odds around 1.45 still comes into my focus, because I still expect the Munich team to take a 1-0 lead at the break.
It is not without reason that FCB are the only club in the league that have never been behind at half-time this season (half-time record: 8 wins, 3 draws).
What you need to know about Bayern vs. St. Pauli betting
- Vincent Kompany’s team has the best defense in the league and concedes only 0.73 goals per game. Bayern have won five of eight competitive games at the Allianz Arena this season to nil.
- There are 24 points between Bayern and St. Pauli. St. Pauli has not picked up a single point in the last eight Bundesliga games.
- St. Pauli has the third fewest shots on goal (11.82 per 90 minutes) and has the worst xG value (10.77) in the league (18th place). The bet “Bayern to win to nil” has a probability of 54.6%.
- Andreas Hountondji (St. Pauli) is his team’s top scorer with three goals. However, the Benin international has not scored since the third matchday.
Bayern – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
1. Goalscorer: Michael Olise is the first Bayern St. Pauli AI prediction that our data model confronts me with.
At first, however, I had to swallow for a moment, because I would have expected Harry Kane here.
But the proposal is still a good alternative to the Englishman! The odds are 7.20, and Olise was directly involved in five goals (2 goals, 3 assists) in his last Bundesliga appearance against Freiburg.
A clear indication that he is integrating better and better into the Munich attack – and is exactly the type of player who can strike against the Kiezkicker early in the game.
A 2-0 result bet on Bayern is recommended to me by our data model – and at odds around 8.25 at every German betting provider, you can definitely think about it.
Anything less than that seems unrealistic anyway, because the German record champions have scored at least two goals in each of their last 19 games.
I can also live with the last suggestion, Under 4.5 goals at odds around 1.53. Without an odds boost, there is no monster payout, but all the results that I think are plausible are clearly below this mark.
The best odds for Bayern vs. St. Pauli
At this point, let’s take a look at the Bayern St. Pauli odds together and what picture the bookmakers paint of the balance of power. The figures almost seem like a statement – and a very clear one at that.
A home win for FC Bayern is priced at 1.11. This extremely low odds clearly shows how clearly the bookmakers assess the situation: Munich is listed as the overwhelming favourite, with enormous squad quality, home advantage and a dominant style of play until recently.
The draw is at 10.50. A value that essentially says: it is theoretically possible, but the bookies consider a point game at eye level to be highly unlikely. It would take a perfect defensive plan from the guests and an absolute Bavarian off-day.
For a historic away win of St. Pauli, values around 20.00 are offered. A quota of this magnitude marks the absolute outsider role.
The bookmakers’ models therefore clearly assume that only an extraordinary course of play opens up such a scenario – such as early mistakes, set-pieces or a completely surprising momentum swing.
Bayern vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
Bayern will dominate the game from the start, but it won’t be any easier than the table situation suggests. St. Pauli has the second-highest field tilt in the league – right behind Bayern – and knows how to make spaces narrow.
Although the Munich team has an average of 64% possession at home and fires over 20 shots per game, it should be much tougher to create clear chances this time.
St. Pauli defend deeply, compactly and aggressively, and Bayern always have games in which they find it difficult to consistently break up stable defensive chains.
Especially in the early stages, they could be stuck in the final third for a long time without getting through decisively.
In the second half, the spaces opened up a little more, but even then St. Pauli remained dangerous when Bayern moved up too much.
The guests are one of the weakest teams in the league in terms of xG (11.82 shots per game), but they defend disciplined and could frustrate Bayern as much as other underdogs before.
Bayern will create more pressure as the game goes on at the latest, but a lot depends on whether St. Pauli’s keeper Nikola Vasilj catches one of those days when he surpasses himself.
Bayern remain the clear favourites – but it will be a game of patience, not a foregone conclusion.
Bayern Form Check
Bayern are competing with a mixture of dominance and a small portion of uncertainty – which is rather unusual for them.
The 3-1 defeat against Arsenal was the first defeat of the season, and at the same time the first since the Club World Cup defeat against PSG in the summer.
Nevertheless, the overall picture remains impressive: There is no other team in Europe’s top five leagues that is still unbeaten, and the ten wins plus a draw speak for a machine that usually purrs reliably.
The 31 Bundesliga points after eleven games are a league record and are reminiscent of the historic 2015/16 team and Leverkusen the year before last.
Only one small blemish disturbs the perfect façade: Seven goals conceded in three games – almost as many as in the 13 games before. This shows that Bayern are not completely stable at the back.
Offensively, on the other hand, Bayern remains incredibly reliable. Under Kompany, the team has scored at least two goals in 19 Bundesliga games in a row – and with an xG of 29.7, they are at the top of the league.
And no matter how the next matchday ends: Bayern remains top of the table for the 44th time in a row, a new record in the league.
At its core, it is a team that is almost unstoppable up front, but is currently showing a few small cracks at the back – which makes their games a little more open at times, but never boring.
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli is currently in a phase that can only be described as a complete momentum killer. Eight Bundesliga defeats in a row – club “record” – naturally put pressure on self-confidence and body language in the long term.
And the numbers behind them don’t look any better: With 10.7 xG, Pauli currently has the lowest offensive value in the entire league, plus six games without a goal of their own, which you can hardly afford in everyday Bundesliga life.
And although Blessin’s team does not play so passively – over 51% possession, seventh league value – the quality in finishing is simply lacking up front. The 6.92 % chance conversion rate is the second worst in the league.
Defensively, there is also bad luck. Pauli has conceded 5.16 more goals than would have been necessary according to expected goals. A value that is only “undercut” by Frankfurt.
Nevertheless, Pauli does not seem like a team that completely falls apart. The derby performance against Hamburg, the 2-0, was an example of how it can call on stability.
The 12.36 pressing sequences per game also show that the intensity is basically right. So the problem is not so much commitment or style of play, but efficiency – there is a lack of penetration up front, a little bit of luck at the back.
And that’s exactly why, according to bookmakers, they are currently the second most likely relegation candidate.
