Freiburg – Mainz Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 12 on Sunday, 30.11.2025 at 19:30 CET
Both clubs did not exactly cover themselves with glory internationally during the week. But it is above all the attractive odds boosts and the realistic chance that I could be right with my Freiburg Mainz tip that drive me to the betting shop on Sunday.
There I place my stake on the Breisgau team without thinking twice. Freiburg’s odds of around 1.90 are already a strong argument – and they join a real knockout argument: the personnel situation at the zero-fives.
In addition to Dominik Kohr, who is suspended, Nadiem Amiri is also out with a yellow suspension. Both are among FSV’s most accurate passers this Bundesliga season: Amiri with 82.8%, Kohr with 82.2%.
Without an orderly build-up to the game, the Rheinhessen team is therefore easily threatened with the next – and at the same time fourth away defeat in a row in all competitions.
The personnel situation is therefore a valid reason to put my Freiburg Mainz tip into practice.
But it gets even better: Let’s take a look at the direct comparison – because it speaks an even clearer language!
Freiburg are unbeaten in eight Bundesliga duels against Mainz (W2 D6) – such a streak has never been seen between these two teams before.
The last Mainz win in this duel was in the 2020/21 season, when the Rheinhessen team even won both games (3-1 away, 1-0 at home). That’s exactly why I see Freiburg as having a clear advantage here.
Freiburg – Mainz Prediction & Betting
If you don’t share my optimism about a Freiburg victory, then you must at least seriously consider betting Over 2.5 goals at odds around 1.95 and Both teams to score at a slightly lower 1.78. Statistically, there are some excellent reasons for this.
Mainz recently only managed a draw against Hoffenheim, but played out a significantly higher xG value of 2.02. In fact, it happens more often at FSV that they win the xG duel, but don’t take the three points – so the offensive potential is definitely there.
In addition, the Breisgau team offers their opponents quite a large attack surface for offensive actions. Freiburg have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per 90 minutes this Bundesliga season – so at least the honorary goal for the Rheinhessen should be absolutely within the realm of possibility!
What you need to consider when betting on Freiburg vs. Mainz
- The bet “Both teams to score – yes” won in all five Freiburg Bundesliga home games this season (most recently in the 2-1 win against the second-weakest attacking team in the league).
- Mainz have only picked up six points from their first eleven Bundesliga games. This is the second-worst start to the season in the club’s history (only in 2020/21 was the start worse with 5 points).
- Our data model estimates this game to be the lowest-scoring game of Matchday 12, with a total of only 2.52 expected goals.
- Freiburg goalkeeper Noah Atubolu (20 goals conceded) is one of five goalkeepers to have conceded 20 or more goals after eleven games (average: 1.82 per 90 minutes).
Freiburg – Mainz: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Freiburg Mainz AI forecast presents you with several exciting betting approaches that you should definitely have on your radar!
For example, the cleverly put together combination bet Double Chance 1X & Both will hit at odds of around 2.20. This selection would have already been successful in three of the last five direct duels and fits perfectly with the current trend of both teams.
Our data model again does not see FSV scoring away from home – and to be honest, I can completely understand this assessment after the recent Conference League appearance against Craiova (0:1).
Mainz have the biggest problems away from home, and that is unlikely to change in Freiburg.
Furthermore, our AI recommends the bet goal within the first quarter of an hour, which you can find in the Betano app under “Minute bets”. The odds of 3.20 are definitely interesting – especially because FSV has conceded the most goals (5) in the league so far in this time window.
Perhaps this is exactly why the third suggestion is even more recommendable: half-time/final score Freiburg/Freiburg at odds around 3.10.
While Mainz regularly acts too openly in the first fifteen minutes, the sports club has only had to accept a single goal in this phase.
It is therefore quite possible that the host will lay the foundation for the later victory early on.
The best odds for Freiburg vs. Mainz
Let’s take a look at the Freiburg Mainz odds and see what story the bookmakers tell here – because their assessment is much more carefully balanced than in many other games of this matchday.
For a home win of SC Freiburg, the providers call out 1.95. This seems like a cautious favorite marking: The bookies believe Freiburg can have more structure, home strength and stability, but do not want to lean too far out of the window.
You can see the restraint in the fact that the odds do not slip into the classic favorite segment below 1.70.
The draw is rated at 3.50 – a value that signals that a balanced game is absolutely within the range of what can be expected. The models indicate that longer phases without a clear advantage are quite possible, precisely because both teams like to remain tactically compact.
Mainz’s away win is 3.80. With this, the bookmakers make it clear: They don’t see M05 as equal, but definitely competitive enough to tip the game in certain directions – especially through intensity, transition moments and set-pieces.
Overall, the Freiburg Mainz odds paint a picture of a game that remains open enough to allow for several scenarios, but in which SCF has a small but recognizable advantage from the market’s point of view.
Freiburg vs Mainz Match Analysis:
Freiburg should show the more mature and stable style of play in the early stages.
Under Bo Henriksen, Mainz defends extremely high and aggressively (PPDA 12.84). But it is precisely this willingness to take risks that opens up spaces that Freiburg can make excellent use of with its direct passes behind the defence.
The Breisgau team traditionally produces fewer total shots (23.91 per game, below the league average), but the quality of their chances often increases against teams with such a daring line.
In the second half, the game is likely to become more open because Mainz remain courageous, but show enormous fluctuations in their own possession.
These inaccuracies repeatedly open up counter-attacking opportunities for the Breisgau team, while Mainz themselves find their way into the game through intensity.
This leads to a respectable exchange of blows with chances on both sides – but Freiburg benefits more clearly from the matchups: high Mainz line, a lot of space, better efficiency.
Therefore, a slight plus for the home side, even if the game can be wild and balanced for long stretches.
Freiburg Form Check
Freiburg is currently in a rather bumpy phase. Five points from the last five games show you that consistency is missing, and with 13 points after eleven games, they are experiencing their weakest start to the season in five years.
Only one win from the last seven Bundesliga games – the 2-1 against St. Pauli – underlines that they are currently finding it difficult to get into a rhythm. Nevertheless, it has to be said: Things are going much better at home.
They are unbeaten in four home games, two wins, two draws – the longest home run they have had so far in 2025. The only defeat at home came on the first matchday against Augsburg.
Overall, the team is difficult to assess: Including the cup, they have lost only one of their last six games, but offensively they often lack penetration. Four goalless games since October show you where the problem lies.
According to xG, they should also be three places higher, which shows that they create their chances, but too rarely complete them.
A real trademark, however, are the set-pieces: 60 percent of Freiburg’s goals come from stationary balls – a league best. Two goals against Bayern from corners have impressively confirmed this once again. Mainz must pay special attention to this!
Mainz Form Check
Mainz are still stuck in the bottom of the table and have made the second-worst start to the season in the club’s history with only six points from eleven games. The team has been waiting for a win in seven Bundesliga games, and only St. Pauli is currently without a win longer.
Particularly bitter: Mainz simply can’t get any stability defensively. There has not been a single clean sheet in 22 league games – a club negative record and at the same time the longest running streak in the entire Bundesliga.
In addition, as already mentioned, they regularly concede early goals. Five goals in the first 15 minutes speak a clear language and show you that Mainz often have to chase early on.
The double burden is not good for them either. After European games, they have lost four times and drawn once this season. The 1-0 defeat against Craiova on Thursday showed once again how difficult it is for the team to maintain performance.
Offensively, there is a lack of effectiveness, defensively the calmness – a combination that is currently massively burdening Mainz. And yet, according to Expected Points, they should actually be in tenth place.
This shows that Mainz could have done much more and that the results do not reflect the performance. Bad luck, a lack of coldness and small mistakes add up – and that’s exactly why they are at the bottom.
