Dortmund – Freiburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 31 on Sunday, 26/10/2026 at 17:30 CET
Are BVB still in the mood for some football this season? While Dortmund hardly ever offered any playful splendour despite all their successes in recent months, the performances have been a little more disappointing recently.
Defeats against Leverkusen and Hoffenheim even threaten to put the runners-up spot in jeopardy once again – if they don’t win again. So it’s a good thing that the absolute favourite opponent now appears at Signal Iduna Park.
With a draw, the Westphalians could win 16 of the last 17 home games against SC Freiburg, who are now also expected to be somewhat demoralized after the unfortunate exit in the DFB Cup semi-finals.
Because my trust in BVB has narrow limits despite all this, I avoid a 1×2 bet here – and instead commit to the option “Both teams score” in my Dortmund Freiburg tip.
Although BVB have won seven of the last eight direct duels across all locations – and usually quite clearly – the “BTS” has already had its charm in the most recent clashes.
In eight of the last ten clashes, both teams finally got their chance. And anyone who saw the Westphalians defend last time should have come to the conclusion quite quickly that the Sport-Club can now also be trusted to score at least one goal.
Dortmund, for their part, almost always score in home games anyway. The fact that the recent exchange of blows against Leverkusen made an exception in this regard (0:1) should now lead to even increased offensive efforts!
BVB – Freiburg Prediction & Betting
Another interesting option is the classic home win. Dortmund have won eleven of their 15 games at Signal Iduna Park and face Freiburg who are weak on the road. The odds of 1.40 for a BVB win are low, but they are a solid basis for combination bets.
For more risk-taking bettors, I recommend a combo bet: “Dortmund win & Dortmund under 4 goals” at odds of 1.80. Freiburg might be tired after the cup games, and BVB have only scored more than three goals at home once this season.
The Dortmund Freiburg bets on the Asian market are also worth considering. BVB have won their last four home games against Freiburg by at least three goals. An Asian handicap of -1.0, -1.5 could therefore be well worth it.
What you need to know about Dortmund vs. Freiburg betting
- Dortmund have won 11 of 15 home games, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding only 0.93 goals.
- Freiburg only scored just under 35% of its points away from home and scores an average of only 1.07 goals per away game.
- BVB have won their last four home games against Freiburg by at least three goals.
- Gregor Kobel is the goalkeeper with the most clean sheets in the Bundesliga with 13 clean sheets.
Dortmund – Freiburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool provides a clear direction. The probability of Dortmund winning at home is 60.8%. A draw is valued at 20.5%, while an away win for Freiburg has only a small chance of 18.7%.
From this data – just like I did before – the artificial intelligence also unsurprisingly derives a home win as a BVB Freiburg AI prediction.
Artificial intelligence also provides an exciting prediction for goals. 2.01 goals are expected for Dortmund and 1.02 for Freiburg. The overall forecast of 3.03 goals per game supports the assumption that we will see some goals.
For the over 2.5 goals, tipsters have to be content with a rather narrow odds of around 1.54 this time after the recent high-scoring duels between the two teams.
The bookmakers assess the situation similarly and see Dortmund as the even clearer favorite. The Dortmund Freiburg odds indicate a chance of victory of over 70% for the home team, which even exceeds the assessment of our AI tool.
The Asian Handicap Line is set at -1.0, -1.5 for Dortmund. This means you need a win with at least a two-goal lead for a full win. If you win by just one goal, you lose half of your stake.
In view of the recent clear matter for BVB in this duel, the AI can of course only advise a handicap bet. If Dortmund wins by at least two goals, the corresponding BVB Freiburg bet will then at least get back about twice the stake.
In the goalscorer bets, Serhou Guirassy is the top favourite. The Dortmund – Freiburg betting odds indicate a probability of about 60% that the striker will score, provided he is fit in time after his minor injury and can play – odds of around 1.68!
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Freiburg
A look at the direct record of the last years and decades would suggest that there is a considerable difference in class between the two teams.
Although there are currently only five places between the two teams, this assumption is also supported by the current BVB Freiburg odds.
Although Borussia have not exactly been bursting with motivation recently, another home win against their declared favourite opponents is just over 1.4.
The higher odds for a more or less great success of the official outsider invite you to circulate a sports betting bonus:
The points at Signal Iduna Park are already quoted at a generous 5.4 – although the first leg in Breisgau almost six months ago ended in a 1-1 draw.
Dortmund vs Freiburg Match Analysis:
Ahead of this clash, the two teams are separated by 21 points in the table. Although Niko Kovac’s team have lost their last two league games, I expect a strong reaction and a dominant performance from BVB in front of their home crowd.
Dortmund’s attack is a force at home. Borussia have an average of 14.8 shots per home game. Freiburg allow an average of 15.6 shots away from home, suggesting that BVB will have plenty of chances to score.
Dortmund’s efficiency is particularly impressive. The team has significantly exceeded its xG value (expected goals) of 55.33 with 61 goals scored. Only four teams in the Bundesliga show an even better conversion of chances.
Freiburg’s best chance of qualifying for Europe may be in the Europa League. That could influence the concentration on the Bundesliga, even if Julian Schuster’s team always gives everything and never gives up.
For Dortmund, Champions League participation is almost certain. Nevertheless, coach Kovac will demand a strong end to the season from his team in order to satisfy the fans and go into the summer break with a positive feeling.
In summary, it can be said that the different motivations could play a role. Nevertheless, the home strength and the impressive offensive statistics clearly speak for an advantage on the part of Borussia Dortmund in this game.
Dortmund Form Check
Dortmund want to make amends quickly after the disappointing last-minute defeat against Hoffenheim. The phenomenal home record this season gives every reason for hope and makes the team the clear favourites.
Despite the impressive record of eleven wins in 15 home games, the defence has recently shown weaknesses. These small lapses in concentration have always given the opposing teams hope of scoring.
Nevertheless, Signal Iduna Park remains a fortress. BVB’s attacking power, with an average of over two goals per home game, is simply too much for most visiting teams. Even the most recent defeats do not change that.
Despite the two defeats in a row, the team is comfortably in second place with 64 points, five points ahead of RB Leipzig. So there is no big pressure, which could benefit the team’s game.
There is a question mark over the use of top striker Serhou Guirassy, who has suffered a concussion. If he is out, the responsibility in the attack will mainly rest on the shoulders of Maximilian Beier.
Beier’s role will therefore be crucial. His running routes and ability to find gaps could be the key to cracking SC Freiburg’s well-organised and disciplined defence and creating scoring chances.
Freiburg Form Check
Freiburg currently occupies seventh place with 43 points. This position keeps the Breisgau team in the race to qualify for the Europa Conference League or even the Europa League, which provides enormous motivation.
Their season is a masterpiece at getting results, even if the statistics don’t always speak for it. Interestingly, Freiburg is in the top half of the table, despite the club having a negative goal difference of -4.
In addition, Freiburg has left both in the Europa League. Under extremely unfortunate circumstances, on the other hand, the DFB Cup semi-final at VfB Stuttgart was over on Thursday. However, the high workload of the cup games during the week could lead to a certain fatigue in the team, which is a disadvantage.
Despite the possible exhaustion, Freiburg is a resilient team. They are extremely efficient on the counterattack and well organised in set pieces, which makes the Breisgau team an unpleasant opponent for any team.
The visitors will be waiting to take advantage of the spaces left by Dortmund’s attack-minded full-backs. This tactical discipline is one of their greatest strengths, especially in games against top teams.
The 1-1 draw in the first leg proved that Freiburg have the necessary fighting spirit to frustrate a superior opponent like Dortmund and even steal a point in the end.
