Dortmund – Gladbach Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 15 on Friday, 19.12.2025 at 20:30 CET
A Dortmund Gladbach tip on the home side promises manageable odds of around 1.50 on average, even at the best German betting providers.
But a home win bet that is already bombproof in my eyes can easily be spiced up by additional conditions, such as the handicap -1 I use or one of the odds boosts of our bookmakers at the end.
This is especially the case in this Borussia duel with the NEO.bet odds boost, which catapults Dortmund’s home win odds to a remarkable 8.76.
Gladbach have recently set some positive accents again under Eugen Polanski, but in games against strong opponents like RBL, their own xG value never exceeded 1.00.
And especially without the injured Tim Kleindienst, I firmly believe that the Foals will remain winless on Bundesliga matchday 15 after last week’s 3-1 defeat against Wolfsburg.
The direct comparison also gives my Dortmund Gladbach tip a boost – statistically!
Dortmund have always avoided defeat in the last five direct encounters against this opponent (4 wins, 1 draw). A total of 23 goals were scored in these games (an average of 4.6/game), and both teams scored at least once in each match.
Incidentally, the Black and Yellows have celebrated more home wins against Gladbach than against any other opponent (41) and have even won the last 12 home games in a row against the Foals.
Dortmund – Gladbach Prediction & Betting
Friday? Bundesliga? Signal-Iduna-Park? This time, especially in view of the statistical starting position, I would be a little more courageous when it comes to a Dortmund Gladbach tip.
My preferred selection “Win Dortmund with HC -1” at just 2.30 is based on the observation that BVB has lost only one of its last 40 Bundesliga home games on this working day.
1st goal: Dortmund meanwhile promises odds of 1.45 as a separate tip, but in fact you can easily add these additional conditions to the above handicap bet to win even higher winnings.
In my opinion, this pick is statistically bombproof because BVB has already scored the interim 1-0 on 12 matchdays this season – league high.
What you need to consider when betting on Dortmund vs. Gladbach
- Dortmund have scored at least one goal in each of their last 15 home games in all competitions and lost only once (1-0 against Leverkusen in the DFB Cup).
- Gladbach averages 1.67 points per game away from home, putting them in fourth place in the Bundesliga. With only five away goals conceded, they also have the best defence in the league together with Bayern.
- Dortmund’s games have the lowest goal average in the Bundesliga this season with an average of 2.57 goals per 90 minutes. Gladbach’s games are also below the average of 3.0 goals with 2.86 goals per 90 minutes.
- Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy and Gladbach’s Haris Tabakovic are second and third behind Harry Kane in the Expected Goals (xG) in the Bundesliga. Guirassy scored five goals from 6.85 xG, Tabakovic scored seven times from 6.70 xG.
Dortmund – Gladbach: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Dortmund Gladbach AI prediction has a very clear impression of how Friday’s game will go. And in fact, I can’t fundamentally disagree with the recommendations for football betting based on them.
“Half-time/final score: Dortmund/Dortmund” at odds around 2.20 makes so much sense because Gladbach was in the lead at the change of sides on only 3 of 14 Bundesliga matchdays – and usually against significantly weaker teams than BVB.
A start-to-finish victory for Kovac’s team against Foals, who were mostly passive in the early stages, is by no means unlikely – on the contrary!
Now it gets interesting: Our AI model can very well imagine a clean sheet victory for Borussia. The selection “BVB win without conceding a goal” is highlighted as a value bet at values around 2.80.
However, with a lot of luck, Gladbach could still score the consolation goal – and if it comes, it will probably be after the break.
In any case, the selection “2nd half: Gladbach scores” is not completely absurd when you consider that the Foals have scored 12 of their 18 Bundesliga goals after the break.
Personally, however, as far as the risk-return ratio is concerned, I prefer to stick to the initially suggested zero-win proposal of our AI.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Gladbach
Let’s take a look at the Dortmund Gladbach odds together – a classic of the Bundesliga where the markets paint a clear picture, but still leave room for surprises.
A home win for BVB is currently rated at just under 1.50. The bookmakers are counting on the individual class, pace and home strength of the Black and Yellows.
The odds show: Dortmund is considered the favourite, but a perfect course of play is no guarantee – small tactical stumbling blocks or inattentiveness can always allow pinpricks.
The draw is 4.70. This assessment suggests that the markets do not completely rule out a scenario in which Gladbach is defensively clever and keeps the game open for a long time. A point for the Foals is possible, but not the bookmakers’ primary scenario.
For an away win of Gladbach, there is a widespread 5.90. The bookmakers see the Foals as clear outsiders who could only cause surprises through sporadic counterattacks, set-pieces or individual moments.
The odds show: risky, but that’s exactly what makes such bets interesting for value hunters.
Dortmund vs. Gladbach Match Analysis:
Dortmund go into this duel with a 13-point lead over Gladbach and want to secure second place before the winter break. Kovac’s team scores an average of 1.71 goals per game – not extremely high values, but enough to underpin the strong season so far.
Gladbach recently revealed large gaps in the defence against Wolfsburg, so Dortmund have a good chance of taking advantage of one or two opportunities.
With the ball, Borussia will dominate the game, especially in their own build-up play, and use their creativity to find spaces between Gladbach’s passive lines.
Defensively, Gladbach shows clear weaknesses: With 16.2 passes allowed per defensive action, they are one of the four most passive teams in the league. This gives Dortmund a lot of time and space in deeper zones.
In addition, Kovac’s men can build on their strength at set-pieces: eight goals from stationary balls – the best value together with another team in the Bundesliga.
Gladbach should therefore guard the wings well and not commit any fouls, otherwise BVB threatens to decide the game early on through set-pieces or targeted counterattacks. Chances on both sides are possible, but Dortmund are the clear favourites.
Dortmund Form Check
Borussia Dortmund missed the chance to climb to second place on their own with the 1-1 draw at Freiburg on Sunday. Ramy Bensebaini for Dortmund and Lucas Höler for Freiburg each scored their first Bundesliga goals of the season.
Dortmund remain third, despite Leipzig’s defeat at Union Berlin.
Bellingham, who is suspended, will now miss the next two Bundesliga games. Dortmund have lost only one of their last eight games and have the second-best defence in the league with twelve goals conceded, but this absence will definitely be noticeable.
The Black and Yellows are strong at home at Signal Iduna Park: they have scored at least one goal in their last 15 home games and lost only once to Leverkusen in the DFB Cup.
Dortmund also exceeds its expected points by 4.8, but is still in second place just behind Bayern, according to the data model.
With an average of 12 shots and 25 touches of the ball in the opponent’s penalty area per game, they rely on controlled phases of possession, pressing in midfield and 13 pressing-intensive sequences per game.
7.93 high ball wins per game lead to an average of 1.71 shots, the highest value in the league together with Bayern.
Gladbach form check
After four wins and a draw, Gladbach suffered their first defeat since 25 October with a 3-1 defeat against Wolfsburg last Saturday, a 3-0 defeat against Bayern.
Despite the setback, the Foals are still in a comfortable position with 16 points, five points ahead of St. Pauli and the relegation zone.
According to expected points calculations, Gladbach should currently be in ninth place, 3.4 points more than currently, which indicates a safe season.
Away from home, Gladbach scores 1.67 points per game, fourth place behind Bayern, Hoffenheim and Dortmund, with only five goals conceded, the best in the league together with Bayern.
The last three away games were won 8-0 on aggregate, albeit against the three currently worst teams St. Pauli, Heidenheim and Mainz.
The upcoming away game is the most difficult task since the 1-1 draw at Leverkusen at the end of September and will show whether Gladbach can maintain their recent stable form.
