HSV – Frankfurt Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 15 on Saturday, 20.12.2025 at 15:30 CET
According to my HSV Frankfurt tip, it gets loud in the stands at the Volksparkstadion a few weeks before New Year’s Eve. My expectations in this regard are reflected in the bet on “Over 2.5 goals & both score”, which I spiced up with a Bet365 boost.
There are many indications that it will be wild in the Hanseatic city at times – if only because Eintracht is visiting. After all, an average of 5.3 goals are scored per Bundesliga guest appearance of the Hessians, which makes me quite optimistic for my forecast.
In addition, our internal AI model also attests that my betting decision has a good chance of success. The calculated xG value should be at least 2.87 goals, which should be relatively evenly distributed between both teams.
But in fact, I could imagine that the four, five or even six-goal mark will fall in the Hanseatic city in the last Bundesliga game of 2025 …
HSV fans will be reluctant to welcome their guests from the financial metropolis, because their favourites have usually looked bad against SGE in the past.
Hamburger SV is winless in twelve Bundesliga games against Eintracht, the last success dating back to January 2011.
Currently, HSV is only waiting longer for a Bundesliga win against FC Bayern (18 games).
For Frankfurt, history also beckons: For the first time since 1966, the Hessians could celebrate three wins in a row against HSV – at that time this feat was also achieved three times.
HSV – Frankfurt Prediction & Betting Tips
Since it is obvious that I assume goals in my HSV Frankfurt prediction, you should not be surprised that I have more football bets in store for you in this regard.
“Both teams to score” is covered by my combination bet from the headline, but is also suitable as a single supplement to your personal bet slip at odds around 1.56.
“1st goal: HSV”, on the other hand, sounds courageous at first at odds of around 1.95, but it is not. Frankfurt have not scored a goal within the first 20 minutes in any of their last 9 competitive games.
So if the promoted team does it right and takes advantage of the opportunity, they could score the 1-0 within the first quarter of an hour with the appropriate pressure.
What you need to know about HSV vs. Frankfurt betting
- HSV has the fourth-weakest offense in the Bundesliga with 15 goals, although it is in fifth place (13.29) in terms of shots per game. Due to imprecise attempts (average 16.8 metres), HSV has the worst goal yield in the league (8%).
- Eintracht Frankfurt are unbeaten in 16 Bundesliga games against promoted teams (12 wins, 4 draws) – a current club record. In addition, Frankfurt have not lost to HSV in 12 duels.
- HSV are showing resilience by scoring 73% of their goals this Bundesliga season (11 out of 15) in the second half. This is the second-highest figure in the league, surpassed only by Heidenheim.
- Jean-Luc Dompé (HSV) has made nine dribbles this Bundesliga season that ended with a shot on goal – the highest figure of any player in the upcoming game. Can Uzun (Frankfurt) follows with eight such actions.
HSV – Frankfurt: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our data model takes the same line as I do with its betting suggestions. The HSV Frankfurt AI forecast makes no secret of the fact that even more daring goal bets could be successful here.
“2nd half: HSV scores” at odds around 1.62 seems to be a promising AI suggestion, which I am happy to bless and recommend to you.
The Hanseatic team are true experts in late goals. A total of 11 of their 14 Bundesliga goals so far have been scored by Hamburg after the break.
Due to the potential for escalation in terms of goals, which seems to accompany every away game of Frankfurt, our data model is bold in its betting recommendations, which go in this direction.
“Over 3.5 goals” at odds around 2.62 is a suggestion that I approve, as long as you have a slightly higher willingness to take risks.
Selecting the 2:2 result bet on your own sports betting app, on the other hand, requires a lot of courage at odds around 12.00. But if there is one end result that I can also well imagine, it is this one!
The best odds for HSV vs. Frankfurt
Let’s take a look at the HSV Frankfurt odds – a duel that the markets consider to be close, and in which both teams bring enough quality to keep the game open.
A home win for HSV is rated 2.65. The bookmakers recognize the strengths of the Hanseatic team, especially home advantage, intensity and aggressive pressing phases. The odds signal: HSV are not favourites, but success in front of their own crowd is anything but unlikely.
The draw is 3.60. The markets are thus calculating a scenario in which Frankfurt is defensively compact, HSV has a lot of possession, but has difficulties finishing off chances cleanly. Long phases without a clear decision are quite conceivable.
An away win by Frankfurt is traded at 2.50. The bookmakers see Eintracht as slight favourites, based on individual class, transition play and the ability to use set-pieces efficiently.
At the same time, the odds show that Frankfurt will not expect a sure-fire success – HSV can set pinpricks at any time.
The HSV Frankfurt odds thus paint a market picture that sees both teams close together: Frankfurt is slightly ahead, but HSV is strong enough to make the game exciting at all times – perfect conditions for value seekers.
HSV vs Frankfurt Match Analysis:
The promoted team goes into this duel with the clear objective of keeping up with the upper midfield. A win could bring Hamburg to within six points of Frankfurt, who are currently playing for Europe.
The home form at the Volksparkstadion has been decisive so far: HSV have scored in five of seven home games, and the home side are offensively dangerous against the still vulnerable Frankfurt defence.
Frankfurt conceded at least one goal in all seven away games in the Bundesliga, with an average of 2.43 goals conceded per game. HSV can therefore be confident and try to take advantage of their own chances early.
Frankfurt presses high and thus allows only a few passes per defensive action (fifth lowest PPDA). This aggressive approach has a positive effect on their goal production, but makes them vulnerable in transition situations.
HSV could punish precisely these weaknesses: Hamburg have already scored four goals directly from counterattacks, only Bayern and Hoffenheim are ahead. Especially the wingers can use free spaces.
Efficient decisions in transition play could tip the scales here. The game promises chances on both sides, but HSV has good chances of winning through targeted counterattacks.
HSV Form Check
HSV are relying heavily on home strength to stay away from the relegation zone. All four Bundesliga wins this season have been celebrated at home, where they have picked up 13 points from seven games – their best home record since 2010/11.
With an average of 1.86 points per home game, they are only behind five teams, while the only eight goals conceded at the Volksparkstadion make them the fourth-best home defence in the league.
Most of the opponents were weaker, only against VfB Stuttgart (2-1) and Dortmund (1-1) did they meet top 6 teams. The upcoming home game against Frankfurt (7th) will therefore be a real touchstone.
HSV fights offensively with precision: Despite 13.29 shots per game, the hit rate is a meagre 8%, the worst in the league. Long distance attempts (Ø 16.8 m) exacerbate the problem. Remarkable: 73% of the goals are scored in the second half, only Heidenheim is higher (85%).
The data from our internal model predicts a fight to stay in the league, but if the current points average is maintained, HSV should certainly reach over 35 points and stay in the league.
Frankfurt Form Check
Frankfurt have won only one of their last four Bundesliga away games and most recently suffered a 6-0 debacle at RB Leipzig. In this period, no other team has conceded more away goals than Eintracht (12).
Despite the weakness on the road, Frankfurt are unbeaten in their last 16 Bundesliga games against promoted teams (W12 D4) – a current club record that could be further extended against HSV, against whom Frankfurt have never lost in 12 matches.
The main weakness lies in the defence: With 29 goals conceded, Frankfurt has the worst defence after Heidenheim. The difference to expected goals conceded (xGA) is negative at +9.88, the highest value in the league.
Frankfurt only allow 4.29 shots on target per game, which is the fifth-best value in the league, but opponents make the most efficient use of these chances: 18.01% hit rate against Frankfurt – league top.
The proximity of the opponents to the penalty area is particularly problematic: 68.94% of the shots come from the box, only three other teams allow a higher proportion.
Frankfurt must become more stable defensively in order to eliminate the away weakness and continue the series against promoted teams.
