St. Pauli – HSV Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 19 on Friday, 23/01/2026 at 20:30 CET
Some rivalries, like the one in Glasgow, have a cool nickname like “Old Firm”. The Hamburg city derby does not have a special name of a comparable kind, but nevertheless there is a lot of fire in it!
The bookmakers have even spiced up their offers, for example in the form of a Betano Boost or the more sonorous Merkur Bets Super Odds Boost, which you can use to further enhance your own St. Pauli Hamburg tip.
Meanwhile, mine sees a victory for the Kiezkicker coming our way. HSV have not won any of their last eight Bundesliga away games, and even if they don’t have to leave the city on Saturday, the atmosphere at the hostile Millerntor is anything but “homely”.
In fact, I also see the Boys in Brown ahead because they have already shown a lot of fighting heart in 2026, even if they are still winless. I am therefore happy to include the St. Pauli odds of about 2.50 on my betting slip!
The 113th edition of the Hamburg derby is eagerly awaited, not least because this traditional duel will finally be played in the Bundesliga again.
Despite the short distance between Millerntor and the Volksparkstadion, there has been a clear difference in sporting terms for some time now – especially when St. Pauli plays at home.
FC St. Pauli have remained unbeaten in their last five home games against Hamburger SV and have almost always prevailed at the Millerntor in this period (4 wins, 1 draw).
St. Pauli – HSV Prediction & Betting
I don’t expect a goalless first half. In this respect, I have exactly two St. Pauli HSV tips in mind, which are based on your individual risk tolerance, but I classify as equally promising.
The supposedly safe variant provides for the conclusion of a bet according to the pattern 1st half: Over 0.5 goals at odds around 1.50. Because the Kiezkicker will move up and thus create chances on both sides.
It is not for nothing that in six of their last seven home games, at least one goal has always been scored in the first half. I also expect that it will be the hosts who score the 1-0.
This brings us to my riskier recommendation – namely 1st Gate: St. Pauli at slightly higher odds around 2.05, which are quite impressive.
What you need to know about St. Pauli vs. HSV betting
- St. Pauli has one of the lowest scores in the league for the quality of its scoring chances.
- Hamburg are still waiting for their first Bundesliga away win of the season and rarely score away from home.
- Both rivals occupy the lower places in the goal statistics, which indicates a rather defensive derby.
- Joel Chima Fujita is one of the strongest tackling players in the league and has already won the ball over 100 times.
St. Pauli – HSV: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our St. Pauli HSV AI forecast does not disagree, but simply focuses more on alternative types of bets, which are just as justified as my already mentioned home win bet.
For example, the selection Both teams will score at odds of 1.85, as exactly this option has already been successful for both city rivals on four of the last Bundesliga matchdays.
Precisely because the Hamburg city derby resonates with a special explosiveness, it could be 1-1 or even higher at half-time on Friday.
You think my home win bet is already aggressive? Then take a look at our data model. It goes one step further and recommends the St. Pauli/St. Pauli bet without detours.
I just have a good gut feeling about this bet, but our digital bettor even refers to a promising data situation when making his decision: HSV has not scored a single goal before the break in its last eight Bundesliga away games.
So if the Kiezkicker actually go into the dressing room with a lead, half the battle for this bet is already paid with odds of about 4.15.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. HSV
The bookmakers have given their assessment of the 113th city derby between St. Pauli and HSV – and it is remarkably balanced, without proclaiming a clear top dog.
A home win for St. Pauli is estimated at 2.55. In this way, the markets are rewarding the home advantage at the Millerntor, the intensity and emotional impact that a derby in their own stadium regularly brings. St. Pauli is seen slightly ahead, but by no means dominant.
The draw is 3.20. This rate indicates that a tough, hard-fought game with long neutralised phases is firmly factored in – exactly the scenario that city derbies often provide.
After all, an HSV victory is quoted at 2.90. The guests go into the race only minimally as outsiders, which reflects their individual quality and derby experience, even if they have to play away.
The St. Pauli Hamburg odds thus paint a clear picture: No favourites, no safety net – but a derby at eye level, in which form on the day, nerves of steel and individual moments are likely to be the deciding factors.
St. Pauli vs HSV Match Analysis:
“Normally” a tough, low-chance game would be expected. Even if St. Pauli wants to exert pressure, the pure data situation clearly speaks against it.
After all, the Kiezkicker have the weakest offense in the league, have only scored 16 goals and are at the bottom of the table with an xG of 14.08.
With an average of 0.83 xG per 90 minutes, they are even at the bottom of Europe – only Getafe and Lecce are more harmless in the top 5 leagues!
However, this game could be out of the ordinary. Derbies follow their own laws, and HSV is currently one of the most offensively limited teams in the Bundesliga away from home.
This is exactly what could play into St. Pauli’s hands. With high intensity, aggressive run-ups, a lot of emotionality and a clear focus on second balls, it is quite possible that they will create scoring chances that they simply would not be able to create against other opponents.
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli started 2026 with a mixed record after a weather-related postponement.
Since then, there have been two away defeats in a row, most recently the 3-2 defeat against Borussia Dortmund – not a big embarrassment, but it only unnecessarily prolongs the already gloomy negative series of only one win from the last 14 Bundesliga games!
The only ray of hope in this period was the home win against Heidenheim (2-1), and that shows: St. Pauli can still score on home turf – especially when the opponent is on an equal footing!
10 out of 12 points this season come against teams from the bottom half of the table, which gives hope that they may manage two Bundesliga home wins in a row for the first time since February 2011.
The team looks combative, but the trend from the last few weeks shows that stability is still a big issue – both defensively and in the conversion of chances.
Nevertheless, the motivation to win against HSV will bring out the best in the Kiezkicker on Friday!
HSV Form Check
Hamburg finally picked up their first point of 2026 last weekend – a 0-0 draw against Mönchengladbach at home. The end of a four-game league pointless streak that has brought the Hanseatic team dangerously close to the relegation zone.
However, Hamburg’s away record is alarming: no win on a foreign pitch this season and five defeats in a row in away games – plus four defeats from the last five Friday games!
Offensively, there is also a lack of penetration: in four of the last five Friday games, Hamburg has failed to score. This statistic makes it clear that a derby on foreign soil will be anything but easy.
Fitness issues are further dampening the mood: Nicolas Capaldo and Albert Sambi Lokonga are injured, which puts a strain on the already thin staff. Against St. Pauli, Hamburg will probably have to rely on their routine, but the momentum is clearly with the home team.
