Leeds – Nottingham Tip Premier League, Matchday 25 on Friday, 06/02/26 at 21:00
In my opinion, the bookmakers weighted the 4-0 defeat against the Gunners too much. Because the respective Leeds Nottingham odds have been a little more balanced than might have been the case a week ago due to the bitter defeat – good for me!
With my Leeds Nottingham tip, I finally try to get the maximum out of this slight misjudgement on the part of old and new bookmakers by means of a simple home win bet at odds around 2.20.
The “Whites” had a real run before this defeat, thanks to which they have hardly lost a game since December. Nottingham is also not Arsenal.
Because the guests have the second-worst offense in the league with 24 goals and will also have to do without the suspended Neco Williams on Friday at Elland Road.
Leeds vs Nottingham AI predictions:
Our Leeds Nottingham AI prediction confronted me with several self-invented betting ideas, some of which certainly don’t sound bad, but are simply not profitable enough for me without the corresponding Merkur Bets odds boost.
This applies, for example, to the bet Draw-No-Bet: Leeds at odds around 1.55. Personally, I just lose too much value, but if, unlike me, you think a draw is very likely, then this option is indeed a good hedge to not go away completely empty-handed.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Leeds |
Draw |
Win Nottingham |
| 41.8% |
26% |
32.2% |
It is possible to meet both. United have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 home games, while Forest average 0.92 goals per game in terms of xG value away from home …
So there could indeed be a goal on both sides, but I don’t think this scenario is so likely that I would strike immediately at any good betting provider with PayPal in view of odds around 1.82 …
In fact, I can get much more comfortable with the AI suggestion for a half-time/full-time bet according to the draw/Leeds pattern at odds around 5.40.
There is indeed much more risk involved, but did you know that only Sunderland have played more Premier League games this season than United (11), in which they were still tied at half-time?
Such a course with a late lucky punch would therefore fit well with the general tendencies of the “Whites” …
What you need to know about Leeds vs. Nottingham betting
- At home, Leeds have only failed to score twice in the league this season and have won all four Premier League evening games, most recently with a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace in December 2025
- Only Wolves have a worse chance conversion rate in the Premier League at 6.7% than Nottingham Forest’s 8.5% – however, Forest strengthened their squad in the January transfer window with the signings of left-back Luca Netz from Borussia Mönchengladbach, goalkeeper Stefan Ortega and loanee Lorenzo Lucca from Napoli
- Only West Ham (9) have played more home games with over 2.5 goals than Leeds United with 8 in 12 games at Elland Road (67%), while Forest, on the other hand, have scored three or more goals in just five of their 12 away games – the fourth-lowest figure in the league
- Leeds’ Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor are the two favourites in the all-time goalscorer market, with the former former Everton striker scoring more Premier League goals (9) this season than in the previous four seasons combined for Everton
