Hoffenheim – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 24 on Saturday, 28.02.2026 at 15:30 CET
1X2 betting is a thing of the past. When TSG play, on the other hand, I now immediately look around for a suitable goal bet. Because the Kraichgau team has tremendous offensive power that rarely disappoints.
My Hoffenheim St. Pauli tip is based on exactly that. In any case, I clicked on the selection Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals without thinking twice in a proven sports betting app at odds around 2.75.
1899 has managed to score 3+ goals in 7 of its last 8 home games, even against established Bundesliga teams that still represent Germany internationally even after the league phase.
And precisely because the Kiezkicker get one fat pack after the other when they are on the road, it could be similar to their last away game on Saturday in the Kraichgau – a bitter 4-0 defeat at the BayArena.
If my Hoffenheim St. Pauli tip works out, then the hosts will actually succeed in a small sporting premiere – because they have always had a hard time at home against the cult club from the neighbourhood.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have not won any of their first three home matches in professional football against the Northern Lights (2 draws, 1 defeat) – a record they can only boast against FC Bayern (first eight without a win) and VfB Stuttgart (first six without a win).
By the way: In the current 2025/26 Bundesliga season, Hoffenheim won the first duel 3-0, but in the DFB Cup, St. Pauli took revenge and won 8-7 on penalties in round two.
Hoffenheim – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips
These are to win, TSG with HC -1 and TSG wins to nil at almost identical odds of currently 2.37. By the way, I would justify both betting suggestions in the same way – with a reference to the respective offensive output!
TSG have the second-best attack in the Bundesliga with 49 goals, while St. Pauli have the weakest in the league with 22 goals.
Furthermore, the Kiezkicker managed to create the fewest big chances (35) and also convert the fewest of them into goals (23%). The possibility of a 3-0 victory for the Kraichgau team as in the round does indeed exist.
What you need to know about Hoffenheim vs. St. Pauli betting
- Hoffenheim’s historic run: TSG are the team of the moment and are playing the best Bundesliga season in their history with 46 points after 23 matchdays; since the winter break, the Kraichgau team under Christian Ilzer have won six of eight games and thus consolidated 3rd place in the table.
- St. Pauli’s offensive vacuum: While Hoffenheim is bursting with enthusiasm, the attack remains the problem child of the Kiezkicker – with only 22 goals scored, the promoted team has the weakest offense in the league and has already failed to score in eleven games this season.
- Hoffenheim are a force to be reckoned with at the PreZero Arena and have recently celebrated eight home wins in a row; on the other hand, there is the record of St. Pauli, who have lost nine of their twelve away games so far this season.
- Kramaric in record mood: Andrej Kramaric scored his tenth goal of the season in the 2-2 draw against Cologne last weekend and thus achieved a double-digit goal haul for the fourth year in a row – the Croatian was already successful in the first leg (3-0) against St. Pauli.
Hoffenheim – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
I fired up the computer and requested a Hoffenheim St. Pauli AI forecast from our internal data model in order to be additionally inspired on the seventh matchday of the second half of the season according to the Bundesliga schedule.
Ozan Kabak meets is a courageous betting idea, which I would like to put to the test immediately at odds of about 3.10 at any German betting provider. In fact, I don’t need to be told twice.
Because the Hoffenheim defender is not a born goalgetter, but definitely in top form, as he has already scored on the last two matchdays and can also set accents against the Kiezkicker, especially at set-pieces.
Victory Hoffenheim is meanwhile at market odds of currently 1.50 a suggestion that our digital betting brain could almost have spared, as I perceive it as superfluous. Because for me, the 9th Bundesliga home win in a row for the Kraichgau team is almost a done deal.
TSG wins both halves, on the other hand, goes hand in hand with an even more lucrative 3.3x and convinces me even a little more. Because St. Pauli will also find that 90 minutes in the PreZero Arena can be very long.
And since the “Boys in Brown” have not won in 12 Bundesliga away games anyway, they could experience a particularly long 90 minutes on Saturday.
The best odds for Hoffenheim vs. St. Pauli
The bookmakers are sending a clear signal with their Hoffenheim St. Pauli odds: they firmly expect TSG to extend their home run and bag their ninth Bundesliga win in a row. The figures do not leave much room for doubt.
Because a home win for TSG is traded at 1.47. This reflects enormous confidence in offensive rhythm, self-image and the current stability in their own stadium. From a market perspective, this is clearly the most likely variant.
The draw is 4.80. A point for FC St. Pauli only seems realistic if the guests slow down the tempo and take the flow away from Hoffenheim early on.
An away win, on the other hand, is 6.00. The Kiezkicker travel with outsider status – a three-point win would be a real surprise from a bookmaker’s point of view.
The Hoffenheim St. Pauli odds thus clearly underline: Everything speaks for TSG – at least according to market logic.
Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
Everything points to Hoffenheim shooting out of all cylinders and rather passive visitors. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are a force to be reckoned with at home in the PreZero Arena and have produced an average of 15.5 shots per Bundesliga home game during their winning streak.
This consistency in offensive play is no coincidence: a lot of pace on the flanks, clean staggering in the centre and a high presence in the penalty area.
Against an opponent who defends extremely deep without the ball, Hoffenheim are likely to have long periods of possession and patiently look for gaps. The playing style clearly speaks for pressure, many crosses and a high number of finishes.
FC St. Pauli is one of the most passive teams against the ball and allows the second most passes per defensive action in the league. In concrete terms, this means that Hoffenheim will be allowed to combine without being permanently disturbed early on.
Especially away from home, St. Pauli have problems maintaining defensive stability over 90 minutes, which is extremely dangerous against a precise TSG attack.
I therefore expect a game in which the home side take command early on, dictate the tempo and dominate for long stretches.
If Hoffenheim confirm their chance conversion, it could be a clear home win with several goals.
Hoffenheim form check
TSG Hoffenheim remain one of the best teams in the league, even if the 2-2 draw in Cologne at the Rhein-Energie Stadium was more of a point lost than a win.
In any case, things have been going really well since the winter break: six wins from eight games, the only defeat was against Leverkusen.
Under Christian Ilzer, Hoffenheim have developed a real run – only Borussia Dortmund have collected more points in the new year.
Considering that they narrowly escaped relegation last season and missed out on Europe completely, that’s a remarkable development.
The defense looks more stable anyway, two clean sheets from the last five games speak for it. And up front, Andrej Kramaric and Kristjan Asllani are in top form – as long as the two deliver, Hoffenheim can continue to dream of the next step towards Europe.
Meanwhile, the situation is comparatively relaxed in terms of personnel. Of the current absences, only Bernardo is actually a real regular player. He could even slip back into the squad after missing his Cologne game, but perhaps not yet for the full 90 minutes.
St. Pauli Form Check
FC St. Pauli gave themselves some breathing space in the relegation battle at the weekend with an enormously important 2-1 win against Werder Bremen. The goals from Hauke Wahl and Joel Chima Fujita made the difference in the end in a game that was less about beauty and more about nerves.
For the cult club, this was only the second win from the last nine Bundesliga games – but it is precisely such games that decide a season in the end. With the three points, they are now in 16th place and thus at least not in a direct relegation position.
Incidentally, the victory had a double effect, as Bremen slipped to a direct relegation place. A few weeks ago, it looked as if St. Pauli would slowly lose touch, but two home wins in a row have completely changed the picture.
Under Alexander Blessin, the team looks lively, combative and clearer in its processes again. 20 points are now on the account – as many as VfL Wolfsburg – that is a real statement in the basement of the table.
However, there is a small question mark over Fujita, who had to leave the pitch with an injury shortly before the end. If he does not get fit in time, Rasmussen is likely to take over the creative role.
For St. Pauli, it’s now a matter of taking this momentum with them – in the relegation battle, momentum often counts more than statistics. But I don’t think they can take anything countable with them in Sinsheim.
