Aston Villa – Chelsea Tip Premier League, Matchday 29 on Wednesday, 04/03/26 at 20:30 CET
There is no denying a sudden drop in performance for the host – it literally jumps out at you!
While the Villans had won 13 of 15 Premier League games in the meantime and scored an average of 2.1 goals, suddenly only two more victories were achieved in the last eight matchdays with a significantly lower average of only 0.6 goals per game.
Nevertheless, I will venture an Aston Villa Chelsea tip that, thanks to the Draw-No-Bet: AVFC option, makes it possible to double the stake if successful – and this scenario is by no means unrealistic!
After all, the Blues have been without a win for three league games in a row and also have to cope with a serious red suspension. Pedro Neto will be missing – an important attacking player who recently fired the guests almost single-handedly into the round of 16 of the FA Cup.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea AI Predictions:
1st half: Under 0.5 goals, for example, requires a good deal of courage, but the strong 3-point multiplier and the favorable conditions make this option quite appealing.
On the one hand, the Blues are missing Pedro Neto, who is important for the build-up to the game, on the way forward – as already mentioned – which should noticeably reduce the offensive penetration before the break.
On the other hand, Chelsea went into the half-time break without conceding a goal on 18 of 28 matchdays. The real possibility of a 0-0 draw after 45 minutes can therefore by no means be denied on Wednesday evening.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Aston Villa |
Draw |
Win Chelsea |
| 35.6% |
25.9% |
38.5% |
The player who scored in the joint first half of the season in AVFC’s 2-1 win and has also scored in four of his last six Premier League games against the Blues is exactly the player that our data model recommends to me for a player bet.
However, I would make an “upgrade” here and prefer the option 1st goal: Ollie Watkins to a simple goal scorer bet on the number 11 of the home side.
I expect only a few goals anyway – and if the Villans striker actually scores the 1-0, then my commitment would suddenly increase 6-fold.
Finally, a somewhat riskier AI suggestion with a slightly positive expected value: 1. Goal & Victory: Aston Villa. With odds of around 3.25, this bet is particularly suitable in combination with a free bet.
What you need to know about Aston Villa vs. Chelsea betting
- Villa’s high-risk comebacks: Aston Villa massively intensifies their offensive efforts when they are behind, averaging 16.5 shots per game when the team is behind – almost twice as many as when they are ahead (8.8).
- Ollie Watkins has scored four times in his last six games against the Blues, scoring both goals in the 2-1 first-leg win in December; if he scores again, he would be the first Villa player since Anwar El-Ghazi (2020/21) to score home and away goals against Chelsea in one season.
- Ex-Blues Tammy Abraham, who moved from Besiktas to Aston Villa in the winter, could score in two Premier League home games in a row for the first time since December 2019 – at that time, curiously, he managed to do so in a Chelsea shirt against his current employer.
- Joao Pedro’s favourite opponent: Chelsea’s Joao Pedro (11 goals this season) is the personified threat for the Villans; in five Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, he was directly involved in five goals (2 goals, 3 assists) – against no other club does the Brazilian have a better record.
